Hurricane Maria

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So on Wednesday Maria actually makes a turn towards the West. The trough building into the Northern plains is being held back more. I think eventually it's going to win out and kick Maria OTS, but it could get closer to the coast than previous runs.

And back NE it goes at 156

[Paragon]

Just now, yoda said:

And back NE it goes at 156

I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.

 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.

 

It shouldn't be aggravating at all... Maria isn't coming to visit the US.  There is nothing to bring it that far west, and just about all reliable models recurve Maria a good 300 miles out to sea

[yoda]

We can take a good chuckle at the 12z GGEM which decides this run to make landfall near OBX

[Paragon]

Just now, yoda said:

It shouldn't be aggravating at all... Maria isn't coming to visit the US.  There is nothing to bring it that far west, and just about all reliable models recurve Maria a good 300 miles out to sea

No, by aggravating I mean it's going to stir up rip currents next week and be bad for swimming on the east coast for those of us who like to go to the beach and enjoy late September beach weather because it's much less crowded at the beaches this time of year.

 

[TomAtkins]

4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.

 

In all likelihood it wont be close. There will be just enough ensemble members that show a land fall for the next few days to keep weenies on board, but it wont come any closer than Jose did to actually hitting any part of the US mainland. The models (and ensembles) are being pretty consistent at this point. There is nothing pushing Maria west into the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic, and eventually a trough will kick it out to sea, likely well before it comes close to New England.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

We can take a good chuckle at the 12z GGEM which decides this run to make landfall near OBX

It's the only model that diminishes Jose abruptly enough that the ridge rebuilds to the North in enough time.

[klw]

Looks to be ingesting a little dry air on the west side at the moment

[jojo762]

One of the more bizarre looking eyes you'll ever see... and likely why there is a double thermal max seen in recon data.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, TomAtkins said:

In all likelihood it wont be close. There will be just enough ensemble members that show a land fall for the next few days to keep weenies on board, but it wont come any closer than Jose did to actually hitting any part of the US mainland. The models (and ensembles) are being pretty consistent at this point. There is nothing pushing Maria west into the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic, and eventually a trough will kick it out to sea, likely well before it comes close to New England.

I was hoping to get some late season swimming in when the beaches are less crowded and the rip currents next week will probably be pretty bad.  Next week may be the last week to go swimming since it looks like a big cold front will come through late next week and that will probably put an end to the beach season for this year.

 

[NJwx85]

I'm sure the close proximity to Hispanolia isn't helping things right now.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

One of the more bizarre looking eyes you'll ever see... and likely why there is a double thermal max seen in recon data.

Earlier last night it was actually looking like a hurricane symbol!

 

 

[jojo762]

Well both the NAVGEM and CMC bring Maria into the US but with both the GFS and ECMWF showing an OTS solution, it appears that this is all she wrote... Things could still change, but that seems unlikely... With nothing new to track for the foreseeable future - which has been quite rare recently, as we have had a tropical system in the Atlantic for the past 28 days.

[wxmx]

May look ugly, but recon is reporting 117FL/115SFMR...even with the bias on SFMR reported, that's at least a 105kts cane

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

May look ugly, but recon is reporting 117FL/115SFMR...even with the bias on SFMR reported, that's at least a 105kts cane

Yeah, not too shabby... Not flagged either except for the 2nd to last ob.

162530 2039N 06853W 6964 02958 9861 +098 +098 144113 115 092 034 00
162600 2038N 06854W 6957 02954 9834 +110 +110 145115 117 089 045 00
162630 2038N 06855W 6979 02924 9826 +112 +112 147113 115 097 049 00
162700 2037N 06856W 6955 02930 9803 +112 +112 150110 113 109 050 00
162730 2036N 06857W 6972 02901 9791 +117 +117 153111 113 115 036 00
162800 2035N 06858W 6966 02896 9774 +115 +115 155107 110 112 026 00
162830 2034N 06858W 6974 02875 9763 +115 +115 155108 109 109 021 00
162900 2033N 06859W 6955 02884 9747 +110 //// 154107 108 107 022 01
162930 2032N 06901W 6969 02854 9731 +116 +116 153100 105 104 017 00

[Mountain_Patch]

2 hours ago, jojo762 said:

Safe to call it an OTS'er at this point... but not before causing widespread and significant damage in the Caribbean. 

This is wrong. The high could bridge with the high to the east of Jose. The low could advance quicker pulling Maria into the coast. Jose could avoid weakening enough to allow the bridge. There is no way to say its safe to say anything before sat night. 66% chance out to sea 33. whatever into south/north carolina/virginia. 

[jojo762]

Looks like recon did a lot of flying around in the "eye" trying to find the center... Looks like an extrapolated pressure between 958-959mb... Still holding steady with perhaps some slight strengthening basing off of FL/SFMR winds.

[jojo762]

2 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

This is wrong. The high could bridge with the high to the east of Jose. The low could advance quicker pulling Maria into the coast. Jose could avoid weakening enough to allow the bridge. There is no way to say its safe to say anything before sat night. 66% chance out to sea 33. whatever into south/north carolina/virginia. 

Both the GFS and Euro (the most reliable models when tracking tropical systems) show a very similar evolution of Maria, the ridge(s), and the positively tilted north-CONUS trough... With Maria moving WNW, then north and northeast, then getting trapped under the high and moving a bit more west and north... the ridge then weakens and allows the trough to kick east and capture Maria... Good luck with your thinking. 

[Mountain_Patch]

6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Both the GFS and Euro (the most reliable models when tracking tropical systems) show a very similar evolution of Maria, the ridge(s), and the positively tilted north-CONUS trough... With Maria moving WNW, then north and northeast, then getting trapped under the high and moving a bit more west and north... the ridge then weakens and allows the trough to kick east and capture Maria... Good luck with your thinking. 

ignore the models and look at the atmospherics. They don't match. Neither model knows how to handle jose going forward. Saturday night you can trust the models.

 

I found this highly informative. 

 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Both the GFS and Euro (the most reliable models when tracking tropical systems) show a very similar evolution of Maria, the ridge(s), and the positively tilted north-CONUS trough... With Maria moving WNW, then north and northeast, then getting trapped under the high and moving a bit more west and north... the ridge then weakens and allows the trough to kick east and capture Maria... Good luck with your thinking. 

Just remember that the average day five track error is 200 miles with tropical cyclones.

[TomAtkins]

6 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

This is wrong. The high could bridge with the high to the east of Jose. The low could advance quicker pulling Maria into the coast. Jose could avoid weakening enough to allow the bridge. There is no way to say its safe to say anything before sat night. 66% chance out to sea 33. whatever into south/north carolina/virginia. 

All of that happens and Maria is still too far from shore to make the move. The NHC cone gives you a good idea. Its not even close to have a US landfall even within the cone. The ensembles only have a few members making landfall. We are now within the time frame at 6 or so days out, that the better models would likely be showing such a massive change in course.

Realistically, hurricanes in Maria's current position with its short term heading just dont hit the East Coast. 

[Mountain_Patch]

6 minutes ago, TomAtkins said:

All of that happens and Maria is still too far from shore to make the move. The NHC cone gives you a good idea. Its not even close to have a US landfall even within the cone. The ensembles only have a few members making landfall. We are now within the time frame at 6 or so days out, that the better models would likely be showing such a massive change in course.

Realistically, hurricanes in Maria's current position with its short term heading just dont hit the East Coast. 

So you're telling me somehow in 10 years you've managed to completely study the effects of cyclone interaction with a concept that wasn't even named before the 2000's? I trust the good people at NOAA but not that much.

[jojo762]

24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Just remember that the average day five track error is 200 miles with tropical cyclones.

With the NHC OFCL... Both the euro and GFS shows a similar pattern by D5... pretty much game over for this storm. I mean perhaps it get far enough west that it produces TS conditions somewhere along the east coast, but any legit direct impacts are not going to happen unless there is some cataclysmic modeling error.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

With the NHC OFCL... Both the euro and GFS shows a similar pattern by D5... pretty much game over for this storm. I mean perhaps it get far enough west that it produces TS conditions somewhere along the east coast, but any legit direct impacts are not going to happen unless there is some cataclysmic modeling error.

Well I cannot disagree that a US impact is highly unlikely at this point, but I cannot help but wonder if the GFS and ECMWF are keeping the weakness left from Jose around too long. 

[TomAtkins]

12 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

So you're telling me somehow in 10 years you've managed to completely study the effects of cyclone interaction with a concept that wasn't even named before the 2000's? I trust the good people at NOAA but not that much.

I'm saying that Jose will be weakened before Maria gets close enough for Fujiwara effects to really matter. Jose sticking around as long as it did has done what needed to be done to likely keep Maria out to sea - it weakened the ridge. What it does after that likely wont matter. Any landfall would rely on the interaction wit hthe upper low over the south east (which you can see pulls Maria back a little in the GFS, but not really enough), plus a major slowing of the trough coming through.

There is just nothing about this setup which says that there will be major westward movement once the storm starts to recurve, Jose or not.

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, TomAtkins said:

I'm saying that Jose will be weakened before Maria gets close enough for Fujiwara effects to really matter. Jose sticking around as long as it did has done what needed to be done to likely keep Maria out to sea - it weakened the ridge. What it does after that likely wont matter. Any landfall would rely on the interaction wit hthe upper low over the south east (which you can see pulls Maria back a little in the GFS, but not really enough), plus a major slowing of the trough coming through.

There is just nothing about this setup which says that there will be major westward movement once the storm starts to recurve, Jose or not.

except the westward flow into florida right now. That confuses me why people are so confident on this turn.

[bobbutts]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The probability of Maria's making landfall in the U.S. Mainland has declined overnight. The guidance came into somewhat better agreement concerning Jose's fate and, as a consequence, some of the uncertainty concerning Maria's fate was also reduced.

Based on hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 8 am position (19.9°N 68.7°W), historical climatology (1851-present) showed approximately half making U.S. landfall. However, that figure significantly overstates the actual probability of Maria's making landfall.

When the pool is refined for those that made U.S. landfall and those that didn't, one comes up with the following numbers:

Average Longitude at 22.5°N Latitude:

U.S. Landfall: 74.6°W (σ=3.0°)
No. U.S. Landfall: 70.6°W (σ=2.3°)

Average Longitude at 25.0°N Latitude:

U.S. Landfall: 77.7°W (σ=3.3°)
No. U.S. Landfall: 71.9°W (σ=3.1°)

Maria is expected to be at more than 1 standard deviation to the east of average for storms that made U.S. landfall. It is also likely to be fairly close to the mean figure for those that did not make landfall. Overall, the adjusted data set implies a landfall figure of around 20%.

Fewer than 20% of the combined EPS and GEFS ensemble members show U.S. landfall. The 9/21 0z run of the ECMWF again indicates that Maria will not make landfall and it did not show the kind of closer call seen on the preceding 9/20 12z run.

Considering this data and the statistics for landfalling storms vs. those that did not make U.S. landfall from the climatological sample based on Maria's 8 am position, I believe the probability of U.S. landfall is now about 20%. U.S. landfall is very unlikely.

Finally, looking at past storms that were significantly weakened after crossing either Puerto Rico or Hispaniola (implying structural damage to their core), Maria probably won't see an increase in its maximum winds beyond 10 knots to 20 knots from its post-Puerto Rico figure (95 knots). The window of opportunity for intensification will likely begin to close within the next 18-36 hours, so unless a bout of rapid intensification occurs, it is unlikely that Maria will regain strength that exceeds maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) to 115 knots (130 mph). However, intensity forecasting typically has low verification scores, so my confidence in these figures is no better than moderate.

I don't see any improvement on the reasoning above in the more recent posts.  You can predict that it is definitely OTS at this point and have a roughly 80% chance of being right.  

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Looks like Maria's winds have ticked up (had been 115 mph the last couple updates) -

000
WTNT35 KNHC 211734
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 69.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

 

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

except the westward flow into florida right now. That confuses me why people are so confident on this turn.

You can wish it all you want, but without a stronger WAR to keep Maria west... it follows the weakness and goes OTS. 

[jbenedet]

Not commenting on exact track of Maria, I would wager that the euro/gfs are maintaining Jose's intensity for too long given his track and no mechanism to maintain tropical or subtropical characetistics whatsoever.

The latest guidance has him sitting over low 60F SST's and meandering over his own wake, which should only act to increase his rate of weakening.

It would be surprising to see Jose as anything more than a Startus swirl by this time tomorrow...