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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Yes, the general idea here is to note that they reading above record. They may not be reporting correctly but anything above record is alarming. Those levels have been in data sets for many years as you would expect for a tropical island in the USGS database. The 1985 event set most of those records. 31.67 inches of rain peaked in the Toro Negro State Forest and is the record within a 24 hour period. Neither Hurricane Georges or Hugo came close. Maria may end up exceding it if the southerly onshore pivot persist all evening. Not having radar estimates or comms established sucks. It may be several days before we really grasp the brunt of impact with isolated communities.

 

Reports now coming in of close to 40" of rain!

 

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

The key is that trough moving across the Rockies around hr 162. It certainly is deep enough to pull Maria inland rather than push her ots. The main issue I'm seeing now on the GFS is timing. 

What are the chances that Maria does what Jose is doing, and just stalls out offshore and loops around until the trough comes in and takes both Jose and Maria away?

 

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Finally got a decent MW pass over PR for rain rates and, unsurprisingly, they're extreme. The pass missed the eastern island but it's close enough to get an idea what is occuring. Keep in mind, microwave data estimates may not line up exactly with geography. This isn't nearly as accurate as radar estimates either, it's just the best we have right now with respect to remote sensing.
a5580722c85109185abb286d31cce18d.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Finally got a decent MW pass over PR for rain rates and, unsurprisingly, they're extreme. The pass missed the eastern island but it's close enough to get an idea what is occuring.
a5580722c85109185abb286d31cce18d.jpg

Wow, that's horrible.  How long will it be before we get a complete MW pass over the island?  Some of the deeper reds seem to be near San Juan, even though the pass didn't reach the city.

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Wow, that's horrible.  How long will it be before we get a complete MW pass over the island?  Some of the deeper reds seem to be near San Juan, even though the pass didn't reach the city.

 

Keep in mind, microwave data estimates may not line up exactly with geography. This isn't nearly as accurate as radar estimates either, it's just the best we have right now with respect to remote sensing.

 

The next pass may miss the entire island or get all of it. There are several polar orbiting satellites that scan. I haven't studied their time syncs, I generally just check at random times. It's difficult to get the rain rate product scan where you want it.

 

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

The next pass may miss the entire island or get all of it. There are several polar orbiting satellites that scan. I haven't studied their time syncs, I generally just check at random times. It's difficult to get the rain rate product scan where you want it.

 

Ever tried Gpredict? Have never looked for these particular sats but ya may be able to better predict passes with it (better than guessing anyway).

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Gloria was the first hyped weather event in the nation's history.  The hype factor continues to increase because cable news ratings go through the roof during major weather events.  Also, local tv news is a declining business but when big weather events happen local tv news returns to its 1980s era glory days when local news was dominant.



Ha! Interesting point. During Irma's FL landfall I found myself hunting for a local Palm Beach County news affiliate (friends there riding out the storm) and ended up watching WPBF's live feed for quite a while. They were actually doing a really good job tracking tornado sightings, warnings, potential areas of concern, and giving very specific details. (Like, which intersection and what direction a given tornado had been sighted--this was when the east coast of Florida was getting the "bad" side of the storm.) They were really on their game, with relatively minimal hype. Although I suppose it stopped being helpful when everyone lost power.
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I have so much family in Puerto Rico and have been so many times. I know the geography very well. The interior areas are getting absolutely wiped out, never seen anything like it, it is like the apocalypse. Flooding on the rate of Harvey in only one day. The destruction is going to be unimaginable. It breaks my heart.

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Just now, Scorpion said:

I have so much family in Puerto Rico and have been so many times. I know the geography very well. The interior areas are getting absolutely wiped out, never seen anything like it, it is like the apocalypse. Flooding on the rate of Harvey in only one day. The destruction is going to be unimaginable. It breaks my heart.

My colleague's 80 yo mother lives in San Juan metro...east side.

She was blessed because she if fine, and her house was not damaged.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will be like Jose.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/puerto-rico-devastated-maria-poised-to.html

Sorry for the kindergarten graphics, but I'm a primitive hobbyist.

I like it- no need to apologize, I am too :-) Fortunately high intelligence and creativity is also distributed amongst us hobbyists (can't teach either quality.)

 

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3 minutes ago, Scorpion said:

I have so much family in Puerto Rico and have been so many times. I know the geography very well. The interior areas are getting absolutely wiped out, never seen anything like it, it is like the apocalypse. Flooding on the rate of Harvey in only one day. The destruction is going to be unimaginable. It breaks my heart.

Worse than Harvey in some ways because of the higher elevations leading to landslides.  Already hearing reports of 40" and it's not over.

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10 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

I hope that irma and maria serve as a reminder that the basics still hold true for tropical cyclones- land damages tropical systems.


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The folks in Coral Gables at the NHC need to learn this as well.  I want everyone to take a moment and watch clips of Dr. Bob Sheets during Hugo and Andrew and remember what a strong leader and communicator he was.  Someone needs to go in and take control of the NHC and be able to go on tv during a major hurricane and be able to articulate a message.  

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