CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: How do you feel about the 155mph LF intensity? Well my guess is that is probably was not 155 sustained on the island given past behavior with these ERC...but I was not flying around in it either. That's just an educated guess. I'm sure you have violent gusts that helped make up for it, like we saw with Irma in SW FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well my guess is that is probably was not 155 sustained on the island given past behavior with these ERC...but I was not flying around in it either. That's just an educated guess. I'm sure you have violent gusts that helped make up for it, like we saw with Irma in SW FL. Agree. I think it was a little weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fringed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Crazieman said: Not good to see the rivers react so fast. Being forced to seek out shelter on higher ground during hurricane conditions does not sound like fun. Hopefully those flood plains aren't very populated.. of course when you start exceeding record levels people tend to get caught off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I know flooding isn't as "sexy" as wind, but this seems like it's heading to a catastrophe as far as freshwater flooding goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know flooding isn't as "sexy" as wind, but this seems like it's heading to a catastrophe as far as freshwater flooding goes. Yep https://twitter.com/radioislatv/status/910491178851880960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Does anybody know what percentage of hurricanes weaken before landfall? Based on all the ERC talk, I expected to see this below cat 5 this morning, and we did. It "seems" like many hurricanes aren't intensifying or stable at landfall, or is this a false perception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just for the historical record in this thread, CNN reporters in San Juan and on east coast just north of landfall have taken cover inside and their videos of outside conditions appear consistent with cat-3 or cat-4 conditions ... they can't stand up to report from even sheltered spots outside. Meanwhile, eye approaching Arecibo on northwest coast, winds steadily increasing to NNE 62 knots gusting 85 knots at 0048z. Observing site on shoreline reports every 6 min, don't think we get to see next ten reports until 0148z transmission (but watching for them). No pressure report from this data buoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know flooding isn't as "sexy" as wind, but this seems like it's heading to a catastrophe as far as freshwater flooding goes. Speaking of which what are the current rainfall projections for Dominican Republic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 We got hit with cat 1 winds minor damage that is the wrath of pain and suffering for most of the folks who cannot leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Eastern PR must be a complete mess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: The sounds coming out of those forests are truly ghastly. And this storm has a long history of completely stripping trees of their leaves. The sound in the video below is terrifying, it sounds like some huge monster exhaling through its teeth. Leaves stripped from the palm trees in that video. As a Midwesterner, I am not certain what wind speed they usually can withstand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 38 minutes ago, Hazey said: I don't think you could get a more precise hit that that on PR. It just bulldozed through almost dead center of the island. Damn With such a large city being blasted with such incredibly high wind velocities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just for the historical record in this thread, CNN reporters in San Juan and on east coast just north of landfall have taken cover inside and their videos of outside conditions appear consistent with cat-3 or cat-4 conditions ... they can't stand up to report from even sheltered spots outside. Meanwhile, eye approaching Arecibo on northwest coast, winds steadily increasing to NNE 62 knots gusting 85 knots at 0048z. Observing site on shoreline reports every 6 min, don't think we get to see next ten reports until 0148z transmission (but watching for them). No pressure report from this data buoy. There was someone streaming from Trujillo Alto (SE of San Juan) and the winds had died down considerably. He claimed that they were probably under the eye (or perhaps they were under some gap). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 On subject of "weakening" at landfall, in these cases where a strong hurricane approaches a hilly or mountainous region, we have to understand that the forward half of the circulation is being squeezed up so there would be some tendency for the surface elements of the eyewall region to be lifted up near the coast, net effect being a pressure rise and wind decrease at sea level but no doubt the cat-5 winds continued on to make an elevated landfall. When Patricia came inland there was evidence that pressures had risen 30-40 mbs in the six hours to landfall but winds at some elevation inland (northwest portion of eyewall) were still representative of lower eye central pressures, so really this discussion is somewhat moot, it depends on where you want to measure the winds -- but officially it is the conditions at the sea level landfall point. Those may not be known for a while but from the radar I suspect there may be patchy cat-5 damage evidence in the right front quarter of the eyewall. There will probably be widespread cat-5 type blowdown on ridges (and unfortunately the radar was located in such a spot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I highly doubt san juan got cat 4 winds. 2 and 3 most likely. Elevated sections of eastern pr got 5 winds...but top end sea level winds die out very quickly out away from marine exposure in the ne eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Watching the live news from San Juan. Winds are quite light. Are they in the eye area? I'm guessing the wind will come back ripping from the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just looking at this loop it appears she was definitely weakening as she made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: These probabilities seem incredibly unrealistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The Arecibo reports have updated for 1254z to 1318z and show a slight veering from NNE to NE, peak gust so far was at 1312z, 87 knots. Eye might come very close to this location soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I highly doubt san juan got cat 4 winds. 2 and 3 most likely. Elevated sections of eastern pr got 5 winds...but top end sea level winds die out very quickly out away from marine exposure in the ne eyewall. Downtown San Juan literally sits on the beach. And the newer section, which is further East sits at sea level and on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: These probabilities seem incredibly unrealistic Indeed-69% chance of hurricane winds in NYC 7 days out? Gimme a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: These probabilities seem incredibly unrealistic terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Downtown San Juan literally sits on the beach. And the newer section, which is further East sits at sea level and on the water. It didnt make landfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Clickbait BS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 CaribbeanNewsService @CNewsService Dominica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: It didnt make landfall there. But they took the wrath of the OEW right as the core was coming onshore. They were also in the RFQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Just looking at this loop it appears she was definitely weakening as she made landfall. This post is an excellent lessons as to why you don't blackbox interpret products you don't understand. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Just looking at this loop it appears she was definitely weakening as she made landfall. ERC tends to do that 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Clickbait BS. trash it yo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: But they took the wrath of the OEW right as the core was coming onshore. They were also in the RFQ. They were removed enough from the landfall location that the wind should have weakened by the time the maximum winds reached them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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