Heisy Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 OT to current obs, but man the last few runs of the GFS, including tonight's 00z really come close to bringing Maria into NJ. Almost boomerangs W before shooting off NE once it is at NJ latitidue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 We may lose TJUA radar when the OEW crosses over the site. Someone with more knowledge of the durability of the tower and dome might interject here. Sitting at a higher elevation, it will be exposed to extreme winds. Even if it survives, it will probably be disabled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? You can read about how MIMIC works at CIMMS: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/description.html Source microwave imagery is readily obtainable from NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html Click on the "85GHz" elements - green are passes in the last 6 hours. The percent at the left is how much of the "region" was captured in the pass (sometimes low percents still give you the core of the storm, but often they miss). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Stunning images. Here is a link for these images. I shortened it. You do have to refresh it for the latest images (or set it for refresh)https://wtalk.co/JWQKBC69 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...100 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...OUTER EYEWALL OF MARIA LASHING ST. CROIX... A sustained wind of 90 mph (144 km/h) with a wind gust to 127 mph (204 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 65.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 From the 11pm Hurricane Maria disco from NHC... a quick factoid: The minimum pressure estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Pressure is up a few mb to 912 on that last pass and she looks a little less intense on the loop, some warming cloud tops especially on the north and west side....SW corner of St Croix in the moat but unless there is a nice north wobble should stay out of the inner eyewall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Pressure is up a few mb to 912 on that last pass and she looks a little less intense on the loop, some warming cloud tops especially on the north and west side....SW corner of St Croix in the moat but unless there is a nice north wobble should stay out of the inner eyewall... Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. Yea that inner eyewall is being stubborn with letting go but def has last some of its moxy. I think Maria has it her full potential. I think we see a gradual rise in pressure as ERC attempts to finish and winds come down some. I'm thinking that we could see a landfall strength in PR anywhere from 155-165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 .....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 .....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR.... Every MPH counts extra at this point. Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 This was tweeted by Chris Bianchi (@BianchiWeather). This must have been what the NHC was referring to.. wind gust of 128mph. wait a second, that's 138mph. sustained wind of 103mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickg2 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Every MPH counts extra at this point. Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad. the only difference will be how far the debris fly. My concern is that the storm will increase in size and spread out the hurricane force winds. I believe this happens after an eyewall replacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 And right on cue. Latest advisory brought winds down to 165mph. Pressure holding at 910mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 NW eyewall in the bigger eye looking very formidable. A large swath of PR looks to face extreme winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, bobbutts said: NW eyewall in the bigger eye looking very formidable. A large swath of PR looks to face extreme winds. Yep OEW def taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rickg2 said: the only difference will be how far the debris fly. My concern is that the storm will increase in size and spread out the hurricane force winds. I believe this happens after an eyewall replacement. Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one. I stand by my original post though. Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160. You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 EURO hr144, ridge stronger with Jose nowhere insight to open the door? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 If the HP over the Atlantic keeps trending further west, I don't see how either storm could go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The latest euro still takes Maria out to sea, but models are still inconsistent with Jose's future track/strength/influence. Latest recon pass suggests a pressure of about 914 mb, and the max wind has come down a fair amount as the inner eyewall's energy is gradually transferred outward. The max SFMR on the last pass was 132 mph. I think the official 165 mph status is generous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 FWIW the OEW has shot off a few CGs over the last hour. As far as EWC goes Maria seems to be holding on fairly well. Not good for PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Apologies for the non-tech post. My nephew is sheltered in place in Vieques. SHare good thoughts and prayers to him and all others on PR and it's associated islands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 I think the EWRC will save PR from the potential most extreme winds. Probably will be a Cat 4 in landfall in reality due to timing of the replacement cycle. Will still be a really bad hit for the island, especially with the San Juan area taking the RFQ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 ERC progressing alarmingly rapidly per recon data and radar. Outer max already has stronger winds than the inner max. At this rate, she'll be done in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Outer eyewall ramping up on radar...things are about to go downhill in a hurry on the SE coast of PR.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Pressure is up to 917 mb. While the outer eyewall is trying to take over and is looking more robust with time on radar, I think the timing of the replacement cycle is about as favorable as Puerto Rico could have hoped for. PR would be worse off if the cycle had begun 8-12 hours earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 hour ago, bobbutts said: Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one. I stand by my original post though. Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160. You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf At that stage though there would probably be total failure in either case. Otherwise, there would be a reason to extend the SS scale to Cat 6 at higher intensities (like the 185 mph landfall of Irma on Barbuda.) It's interesting that the original Fujita scale actually had provisions for an F6, but it was later dropped because the damage from winds of a certain speed could not be distinguished from winds of somewhat lower speeds. (The first Moore, OK tornado was on the threshold of the provisional higher category). I assume the same is true of the SS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Dying throws of the IEW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 One of the most beautiful EWRCs on radar I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 90 knot gust recorded on north side of Vieques Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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