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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 64.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES
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7 minutes ago, Coopdog said:

Will it be 175mph at 8pm?

The 7 pm interim update had it at that -

 

The 8 pm kept it the same -

000
WTNT35 KNHC 192357
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING CLOSER TO ST CROIX IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 64.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES
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17 minutes ago, Paragon said:

IKE is the best way to judge how high the storm surge will be, Jorge?  I wish we could calculate the IKE of some historic storms that supposedly had amazingly high surges, like the 1821 Hurricane (29 foot surge in NJ).  Katrina and Sandy also must be high on the list.  Does it also work with Pacific typhoons and super typhoons like Haiyan?

How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. 

My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2

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3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. 

My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2

I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. 

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Well, I was wrong-

Period.

I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it.

I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future.

Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful.

Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small.

Never stop learning in this hobby.

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7 minutes ago, wxmx said:

How high the storm surge will be? It's a good indicator, there's actually the SDP (surge destruction power) that's related to IKE. But there are other factors not taken into account, like coast geography, angle of approach and historic IKE prior to landfall. 

My SDP calculations yield an index of 3.2, out of a scale that goes from 0 to 6, where 6 is the max destruction power. Katrina had an index of 5.2

yes I was thinking about the other factors and wondered how they would be included.  Since surge is added to what the regular tide brings, I assume that phase of the moon isn't a factor?

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I was wrong-

Period.

I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it.

I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future.

Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful.

Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small.

Never stop learning in this hobby.

To your credit Maria has not behaved as one would expect. I didn't think it would get its act back together so quickly this morning after moving back off-shore. Both Irma and Maria have demonstrated wacky/typhoon-like behavior. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I was wrong-

Period.

I didn't think that it had this much intensification left in it.

I'll need to be more mindful of the distance between eyewalls in the future.

Thanks for all of the feedback and advice, guys.....very helpful.

Can't assume an ERC will progress simply because an OEW is present, and the eye is so small.

Never stop learning in this hobby.

Anyone able to post were Irma was in relation to were Maria is now? Just curious as I imagine Irma was no more than 100-150 miles more northeast?

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Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location

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Does anyone know if the Arecibo observatory has ever been tested against Cat 5 winds?  Is it somehow built to widthstand the lashing?  Been there three times so am familiar with the installation, but somehow still think the radio telescope would be utterly destroyed 

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