NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The long range JKUA radar shows a very small and symmetrical eye with intense convection now completely wrapped around. Furthermore, no real signs of an outer eyewall at this time. Unless recon finds a secondary wind maxima I would hold off on the ERC talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Understandable and I get where he's coming from, and you for backing him up. HOWEVER, me personally, I'd really love for those "guesses" to be backed up with their reasoning, data and methodology of coming to that guess. I think that is what people are commenting on in this instance. Right now the evidence shows a still strengthening system with raw t's increasing and cooling cloud tops. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The 2pm track from the NHC puts the center of the eye about 14 miles out side of San Juan... Gonna be a long night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 St. Croix Live 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said: many other big storms as well. like the huge nor-easter that caused one all throughout the mid-atlantic. It's proven, but many scientists are etched in their own ways. No it's actually scientists who proved there is a connection by analyzing TCs in the Pacific and quakes in Taiwan and also analyzing the tremors following the Virginia quake of 2011 which happened near the time of Irene. People etched in their own ways are just out of touch of the latest research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Recon has found an extrapolated pressure of 914mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Most recent recon data plot from Maria (Tropical tidbits data plots) shows the pressure may be closer to 910mb than 925mb. 914.6mb on the other zoomed in data plot. What will the official center fix pressure? 916mb? Is this lower than Hurricane Irma had at any point? I think it's close. Did Irma get to 915 or 916 mb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Just now, Chinook said: Most recent recon data plot from Maria (Tropical tidbits data plots) shows the pressure may be closer to 910mb than 925mb. 914.6mb on the other zoomed in data plot. What will the official center fix pressure? 916mb? Is this lower than Hurricane Irma had at any point? I think it's close. Did Irma get to 915 or 916 mb? Irma was 914mb at the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, eyewall said: Right now the evidence shows a still strengthening system with raw t's increasing and cooling cloud tops. Agreed. Which is why I think people jumped on that "130 mph" prediction because there wasn't much evidence to support that, and none given to support his thinking. I just personally really respect when an opinion (whether it be popular or not) is backed up with scientific data and or at least the method of which they arrived there, so we can at least all follow along in the thinking process. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: Most recent recon data plot from Maria (Tropical tidbits data plots) shows the pressure may be closer to 910mb than 925mb. 914.6mb on the other zoomed in data plot. What will the official center fix pressure? 916mb? Is this lower than Hurricane Irma had at any point? I think it's close. Did Irma get to 915 or 916 mb? 910.9 extrap for Irma I believe (don't quote me though) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The other bad aspect the NHC is beating the drum about is Maria's forward motion. This cyclone isn't exactly setting any forward speed records. Considering the weaker ridge a long duration vortex interaction with the island, it will take a while for the eyewall to traverse the Puerto Rican landmass. The combination of high terrain and 15-20 inches of rain in places in a rapid fashion is incredibly troubling. People there need to get away from ravines, creeks, streams, etc., most likley all these features are going to turn into raging torrents and rivers. Also get off of steep ridges as mudslides and mudflows will be an absolute certainty with this type of event. A high population is a risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TomAtkins Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: No it's actually scientists who proved there is a connection by analyzing TCs in the Pacific and quakes in Taiwan and also analyzing the tremors following the Virginia quake of 2011 which happened near the time of Irene. People etched in their own ways are just out of touch of the latest research. As they say, science advances one funeral at a time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 St. Croix is now getting 20 kt gusting to 33 kt wind - almost a tropical storm. They are in the light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Hurricanes can influence earthquakes - but not a 50km deep quake like what just hit Mexico City. That quake was likely triggered by the quake 'upstream' in the subducting slab several days ago, which might have increased strain deeper down and also weakened the fault. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Rainfalls of 20-30 inches cannot be ruled out over higher ground in PR, based on observed rainfall rates over Guadeloupe last night. Similar intensity typhoons hitting south-central Taiwan have produced 8-12 inch per hour rates and 30-50 inch totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Dropsonde found 916 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, JC-CT said: *microwave animation* Hmm, that microwave look isn't one that is totally consistent with a sub 920 mb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: Hurricanes can influence earthquakes - but not a 50km deep quake like what just hit Mexico City. That quake was likely triggered by the quake 'upstream' in the subducting slab several days ago, which might have increased strain deeper down and also weakened the fault. This sort of discussion is probably better left to seismologists, and not weather weenies like us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 The CDO has grown substantially in size today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: Hurricanes typically don't weaken as much as people think north of the VA/NC 80 degree SST cutoff after late August. They will usually plummet to around 85-90 mph and then can be stubborn beyond that because they are often being aided by some sort of upper level feature and or semi ET transition. In June/July/most of August more weakening seems to occur. This is likely due to SSTs being cooler as there is frequently a lag and less likely to see ET transitions or dynamic upper level features helping systems in summer Forward speed also plays a role which you've mentioned before in reference to the fact that Charley packed a strong punch over Orlando in 2004 because it was moving relatively fast. Wilma packed such a strong punch in the south florida New York 6th boro counties in 2005 because it was moving fast. Edouard fell apart in 1996 off Nantucket because it was moving so slow. We don't have much satellite evidence but the forward speed of the 1938 new England storm of the century played a role in the devastation in southern new England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 It's fascinating to loop the TJUA radar and watch the >40dbz returns in the eyewall orbit the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: No, they need an explanation as to why you feel an impending ERC will happen. Usually a 5mi eye isn't very sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Usually a 5mi eye isn't very sustainable. well if it's sustains till it get's to puerto rico then it's a moot point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I'm not sure if this is legit, or if its already been posted, but: Ok, so you right click, then click "Search Google for image" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 52 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: I know the Raw T# has been a topic of some drama yesterday, but, I did want to mention that Raw T had been fluctuating and nearly stationary around 6.5-6.7 for hours now, but is back on the rise. It's currently up to 6.9 and climbing steadily. Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening. Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned. The drama yesterday was uneccessary. Likely this cyclone is still intensifying. The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Ok, so you right click, then click "Search Google for image" Good tip. Not legit as it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, nycwinter said: well if it's sustains till it get's to puerto rico then it's a moot point My point is that is very dubious imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 Let's hope Ray is correct, ERC is the only thing that will save PR from a brutal hit from Maria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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