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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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8 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

This may be a dumb question, but is there a reason why we don't launch a drone from the Hurricane Hunters inside the eye to provide real-time data?

have to admit, i'm not totally up on the latest in high end military drone tech. But i'm not sure we have a drone in our arsenal or in existence that can actually mechanically take the turbulent stresses that major hurricanes near mountains can deliver. if we do, it must be like an x-class experimental plane or something like that.

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As we watch the developments, I want to mention that many of us have family (US Citizens) who live in the USVI. They are as much of a concern as a mainland landfall. I know there are many weenies who are cheering every hurricane on to be bigger and stronger. I'm ok with an epically strong fish storm.... or if it took a substantial southerly jog for the evening then I may be ok with an epic build before a hard right around the ridge... As far as those Americans on St Thomas and Croix, etc, Maria is tomorrow.

drops $0.02. 

 

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Looking like the eye is already contracting due to land interaction with the mountains of Dominica. However, I'm not really surprised and expected this to happen since a pinhole eye is not stable, but can allow for more rapid intensification, which I mentioned this morning. I'll be interested to see what implications this has down the road. I would assume at the very least we will get a larger eye after this one is "replaced."

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The radar reminds me of that emoticon with a head banging against a wall.

What I said earlier is of course conjectural, a hurricane this small and intense encountering a hilly but not overly large island could have a variety of solutions. My thinking was that the northern eyewall would be draped over the middle of the island (the really high terrain is in the northwest quadrant) and the 150-200 mph winds would downslope through every river valley to the coast. As for storm surge potential, storm history is important but with this sudden vacuum created by a 30-mb pressure drop, and winds likely to come around to WSW 120 mph, I wouldn't downplay the potential. 

There was a 15-20 ft storm surge with the 1935 Keys hurricane which was also small and could not be said to be carrying along a long-term cat-5 storm surge either.

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2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Looking like the eye is already contracting due to land interaction with the mountains of Dominica. However, I'm not really surprised and expected this to happen since a pinhole eye is not stable, but can allow for more rapid intensification, which I mentioned this morning. I'll be interested to see what implications this has down the road. I would assume at the very least we will get a larger eye after this one is "replaced."

There is a TON of bath water left until hits Puerto Rico. I wonder if it will strengthen even more before then?

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2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Looking like the eye is already contracting due to land interaction with the mountains of Dominica. However, I'm not really surprised and expected this to happen since a pinhole eye is not stable, but can allow for more rapid intensification, which I mentioned this morning. I'll be interested to see what implications this has down the road. I would assume at the very least we will get a larger eye after this one is "replaced."

Dominica is not very wide east/west.  The eye should transit the island fairly quickly. Any frictional loss I would think would be regained in a short amount of time.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

That image is from 30 minutes ago correct?

This radar has the eye in the middle of the island right now:

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

No, it's up to date. As wxmx pointed out above, it's likely due to the parallax effect. 

https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2017/04/19/why-is-my-goes-16-imagery-displaced-parallax/

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