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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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In terms of statistics, we're starting to creep towards some records in terms of high end activity for a single season.

Maria's the fourth Cat 4+ of the 2017 season, 2005 is tied with 1933 for the most with 5 (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, Wilma).

Also Maria may be the the 3rd Cat 4+ to make landfall this year in the Atlantic, 2005 again tied with 1933 had 3 with Dennis (Cuba), Emily and Wilma (both Yucatan).

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Keep in mind with those stats above that we still have all of October to go through, which typically has more storms form in the Caribbean, which has essentially been untouched despite the explosion of activity since late August (exceptionally favorable TCHP).

Onset of La Nina conditions in the Pacific only suggests more potential with anomalously weak shear.

Oh and with Maria now being a Cat 5 based on recon, this may be only the second Atlantic season on record to have two Cat 5s make landfall (2007 with Dean and Felix).

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2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Keep in mind with those stats above that we still have all of October to go through, which typically has more storms form in the Caribbean, which has essentially been untouched despite the explosion of activity since late August (exceptionally favorable TCHP).

Onset of La Nina conditions in the Pacific only suggests more potential with anomalously weak shear.

I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon. 

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Special update:

 

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
745 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND MARIA AS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate Hurricane
Maria has intensified into an extremely dangerous Category 5
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum
winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  A special advisory
will be issued at 800 PM AST (0000 UTC) in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory for Maria.
 

SUMMARY OF 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 61.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM N OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
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4 minutes ago, shaggy said:

I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon. 

Yes I can't disagree with that either. If that was the case, we'd now have 3 Cat 5 storms (2005 had the most with 4).

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Roseau the capitol of Dominica is on the SW part of the island.  Sure looks like a beautiful town.  Looks like a roaring west wind with a large storm surge that will come in as the eye passes just northeast.  Dominica is a tropical paradise.  Forests will be basically gone tomorrow.. 

Roseau__Dominica__public_domain_.jpg

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