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Hurricane Maria

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9 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Edit: RE: SSTs

You just can't beat recon data. Satellite data is off place or lagging in showing Jose's colder pool upwelling from depth a little further east with respect to Maria's core. But again, recon is recon. That being the case, Maria would need to gain longitude and get closer to the Gulf Stream. Not likely for a while, given track. Therefore, further weakening seems the order of the day.

This anecdote illustrates the limitations of satellites. Satellites can provide enormous value, but there are some limitations. One limitation concerns surface temperatures, including SSTs. Direct observations (buoys, reconnaissance, etc.) provide better assessments of SSTs.

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What are the options to replace the San Juan site permanently or temporarily?

1) Repair if spare parts are available

2) Produce new 88D (restart the production line, unlikely isn't it)

3) Move the phased array radar from Norman

4) Borrow some radar unit from the military (SWR-250 or another phased array unit?)

5) Doppler on wheels?

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50 minutes ago, mfgmfg said:

What are the options to replace the San Juan site permanently or temporarily?

1) Repair if spare parts are available

2) Produce new 88D (restart the production line, unlikely isn't it)

3) Move the phased array radar from Norman

4) Borrow some radar unit from the military (SWR-250 or another phased array unit?)

5) Doppler on wheels?

 

UPRM has a radar program and X bands in hand that will play in AWIPS2, but infrastructure was an issue before Maria and she certainly won't make it easier to keep things online without some funding.

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You just can't beat recon data. Satellite data is off place or lagging in showing Jose's colder pool upwelling from depth a little further east with respect to Maria's core. But again, recon is recon. That being the case, Maria would need to gain longitude and get closer to the Gulf Stream. Not likely for a while, given track. Therefore, further weakening seems the order of the day.


At the time of my post I used intellicast sst map (not sure of the source for their data), which showed the 80 degree line pretty far south and in contradiction with your post before your edit. Jose took a lot of heat from the ocean. That is why I have felt for days we would see a rapid weakening and perhaps a transition away from tropical status. How often have we seen quick deaths in waters in just the upper 70s.


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50 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

At the time of my post I used intellicast sst map (not sure of the source for their data), which showed the 80 degree line pretty far south and in contradiction with your post before your edit. Jose took a lot of heat from the ocean. That is why I have felt for days we would see a rapid weakening and perhaps a transition away from tropical status. How often have we seen quick deaths in waters in just the upper 70s.

 

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I was actually using the NOAA/NCEP's GOES SST data from the 23rd before Maria's cloud canopy obscured it. This is where satellite derived products come from. In any event, 25° isotherm cold pool upwelling just wasn't showing up. There were 27° showing in Jose's wake in this image close to last 24 hour position of Maria's core when plotting, but definitely not the 24-25° SSTs that recon found. Hence, Don's point. Can't beat recon and bouy data (when available).

a29c2ef466228727111227924b932718.jpg

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Looks like the coast is getting raked by the outer band and some of that band's clouds is reaching all the way up to NY & NE.  Also a bit OT for the thread but I know the NHC has called Lee "tiny" and you can see why, despite the fact that his winds are currently a wee bit stronger than Maria's -

 

 

maria-lee-vis-animated-09252017.gif

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11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looks like the coast is getting raked by the outer band and some of that band's clouds is reaching all the way up to NY & NE.  Also a bit OT for the thread but I know the NHC has called Lee "tiny" and you can see why, despite the fact that his winds are currently a wee bit stronger than Maria's -

 

 

maria-lee-vis-animated-09252017.gif

Great shot!!! Lee really is tiny. Though despite his stronger winds his IKE is mere percentage points of Maria's.

Maria is another massive wave machine. Tremendous fetch of tropical storm fource winds is really what's needed to maximize swell production. That and movement twords land (currently twords the NE coast) produces captured fetch further enhancing wave hights. 

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19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Great shot!!! Lee really is tiny. Though despite his stronger winds his IKE is mere percentage points of Maria's.

Maria is another massive wave machine. Tremendous fetch of tropical storm fource winds is really what's needed to maximize swell production. That and movement twords land (currently twords the NE coast) produces captured fetch further enhancing wave hights. 

One part of the 5 pm discussion noted this -

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41002, located
about 100 miles west-northwest of Maria's center, recently reported
sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h).

She's not as big as Sandy was but I think as she weakens, she will expand further.  The issue at this point is whether that kicker cold front actually gets to the coast when progged.  It has been sitting almost stationary for the past couple days over the MW -

 

nws-surfacemap-09252017.gif

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On 9/24/2017 at 6:53 PM, andyhb said:

For reference, that's the first NWS radar completely destroyed since Andrew took out the Miami one. A downburst did crumple the radome of KDRT back in 2001, but the internal components were not exposed.

I also found this one from the Reno radar back in 2008:

http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/remote/lecture_notes/radar/88d/KRGXDomeFailure.pdf

Radome was smashed, then a few days later another high wind event finished the job.

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Great shot!!! Lee really is tiny. Though despite his stronger winds his IKE is mere percentage points of Maria's.

Maria is another massive wave machine. Tremendous fetch of tropical storm fource winds is really what's needed to maximize swell production. That and movement twords land (currently twords the NE coast) produces captured fetch further enhancing wave hights. 


After Jose and Maria wave action you wonder how much more east coast beaches can take, particularly if we have a more active nor’easter season. I have family at the Jersey shore who indicate a lot of beach sand swallowed up by Jose alone.


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Lurker here.

 

Would anyone happen to have (or know where to find) the surface analysis map of Maria prior to landfall? I can't seem to find it anywhere. 

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Well Maria is now officially a Tropical Storm.  5pm update -

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 73.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

Meanwhile Lee has intensified as a CAT 2 and forecast to possibly be a CAT 3 - a storm that all but dissipated just a week ago!

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Maria back to a minimal CAT 1 again (and Lee now a CAT 3) -

000
WTNT35 KNHC 271448
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

...MARIA TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 72.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Updated cone -

 

maria-11am-091533_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind-09272017.png

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Hey, guys! Hope you're all well. I know I'm not here much these days, but I saw y'all were discussing my chase, so I thought I'd pop in and say hey. :)

Now that I've had time to process it, I'd say MARIA is a Top-3 chase for me in terms of the quality/violence of the eyewall. It helped that I was in the perfect spot: at the coast, just a few miles right of the exact landfall point. I got totally right-front-quadded. The NHC's verdict (high-end Cat 4) felt right to me-- that is, not quite a Cat 5 but harsher than other Cat 4s I've been in. (Yes, that's a subjective take, not a scientific opinion.) I'd say MARIA was in the neighborhood of PATRICIA, but much larger and longer-lasting. (PATRICIA was a total microcane-- the extreme winds lasted about 17 minutes in my location-- whereas MARIA was pretty large and the extreme winds went on for over an hour.)

My lowest pressure was 929.4 mb. (Actually, that's my lowest *recorded* pressure. I saw the barometer dip below 929, but the 1-min sampling didn't catch the absolute extreme.)

Below is my video. It's long, so if you want to skip to the daytime Cat-4 eyewall porn, the red-meat stuff goes from 6:18 to 6:21 am (timestamp in lower left), then there's a brightening/calming as I apparently graze the edge of the eye (although the lowest pressure did not happen at that time), and then the really severe sh*t starts around 6:56 am. By 7:15 am you can't see a damn thing, and I'd say it's the most extreme eyewall whiteout I've experienced in my decades of chasing (with the single possible exception of PATRICIA). The worst of it was over before 8 am.

Oh, one point: Be careful of trying to estimate peaks winds based on the damage to buildings-- especially in the town where I was (Palmas Del Mar). Two points: 1) Puerto Rico builds for hurricane winds and 2) this is a very affluent area. All of the buildings there are **solid concrete**. (Actually, this applies to a lot of these tropical islands, American and not. They don't have mobile homes and where they have means they don't build wood houses like we do on the mainland. They know better.) Damage to roofs and windows was heavy.

Enjoy!

 

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Thanks for the clarification Josh and thanks for your great work covering the hurricanes this season.  I'm glad you're getting some much deserved national publicity via Weather Nation.  The damage photos I saw suggested CAT 3 damage but I will defer to your better informed on the ground opinion.  You seemed to get out of the Southern coastal part of the island en route to the SAN Juan airport rather quickly.  How did you manage to get out so quickly?  Lots of credible reporters on the ground have been saying the roads are impassable.

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48 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Thanks for the clarification Josh and thanks for your great work covering the hurricanes this season.  I'm glad you're getting some much deserved national publicity via Weather Nation.  The damage photos I saw suggested CAT 3 damage but I will defer to your better informed on the ground opinion.  You seemed to get out of the Southern coastal part of the island en route to the SAN Juan airport rather quickly.  How did you manage to get out so quickly?  Lots of credible reporters on the ground have been saying the roads are impassable.

Thanks! The drive from Humacao to San Juan was pure hell and I was sure I wouldn't make it-- I was planning to sleep in the car on the side of the highway-- but somehow I did make it.

Re: your wind estimate... I don't want to belabor the point, but this is important to address: On what basis do you say the damage looked like Cat 3? Like I said above, everything there is solid concrete, so these buildings will survive even Cat-5 winds. The trees where I rode out the cyclone were 100% defoliated and in many cases debarked, and there were (as you saw in my video) many palms decrowned or snapped mid-trunk, which suggests really extreme winds. Really, only structural engineers-- guys like Tim Marshall-- are qualified to look at buildings and say, "This is Cat-4 damage," and "This is Cat-3 damage." The rest of us (me included, despite having been in the cores of 36 hurricanes/typhoons) are just kinda making it up. :D

That point aside, thanks for your very kind words. I appreciate it. :)

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P.S. To add to my point... The damage caused by HARVEY in Rockport and Aransas Pass looked much more dramatic than the damage caused by MARIA in Palmas Del Mar. In HARVEY I saw complete building failures, whereas I did not see that in MARIA. But guess what? MARIA's winds were much stronger than HARVEY's. It's just that Rockport and Aransas Pass have lots of older, wood-frame or lightweight-metal industrial buildings-- and lots of mobile homes-- whereas in Palmas Del Mar, everything is solid concrete.

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Agree...same goes for Homestead during Andrew. Wooden frame houses and mobile homes don't stand a chance against a cat 4/5...OTOH reinforced concrete buildings will remain with little to no structural damage. Yes, windows, doors, roof tiles and damage related to falling trees/flying debris may occur, but you won't see a clean slab in the aftermath of a cat 4/5.

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30 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Agree...same goes for Homestead during Andrew. Wooden frame houses and mobile homes don't stand a chance against a cat 4/5...OTOH reinforced concrete buildings will remain with little to no structural damage. Yes, windows, doors, roof tiles and damage related to falling trees/flying debris may occur, but you won't see a clean slab in the aftermath of a cat 4/5.

Andrew destroyed entire shopping centers. The type of structure was wholly irrelevant. Everything was destroyed in south Dade county and anyone on the ground there will attest to this. The damage in Puerto Rico although severe and politically momentous is not comparable to Andrew in any way, shape or form and I'm basing this assertion on aerial footage and my 1992 experience on the ground.

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1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Agree...same goes for Homestead during Andrew. Wooden frame houses and mobile homes don't stand a chance against a cat 4/5...OTOH reinforced concrete buildings will remain with little to no structural damage. Yes, windows, doors, roof tiles and damage related to falling trees/flying debris may occur, but you won't see a clean slab in the aftermath of a cat 4/5.

Exactly.

 

38 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Andrew destroyed entire shopping centers. The type of structure was wholly irrelevant. Everything was destroyed in south Dade county and anyone on the ground there will attest to this. The damage in Puerto Rico although severe and politically momentous is not comparable to Andrew in any way, shape or form and I'm basing this assertion on aerial footage and my 1992 experience on the ground.

ANDREW was a stronger hurricane than MARIA (Cat 5 versus Cat 4), so it inflicted heavier wind damage. I'm not sure why you're arguing that point, since it's to be expected.

But, yes, the type of structure *is* relevant.  A shopping center can be constructed well or constructed badly. Pre-ANDREW, a lot of Florida was constructed like crap. Now it's much better. The minimal damage in Naples after IRMA (during which the city had officially measured gusts over 120 knots) is a good indicator of how far Florida has come.

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One thing Josh there were thousands of wood structures/houses destroyed in PR

Yeah, to be clear, I'm talking about where I was: Palmas Del Mar. Nothing there is wood.

P.S. I added clarification to my original post to say "where they have means" they don't build with wood.

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