Jim Martin Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Yeah, I think it's safe to say that the NHC should update the N to NNW. Bastardi addressed this earlier and posted this pic. Said it looks to him to be west of north and not north as posted. Looks like more than a "wobble" imo. He also stated that he wasn't buying the latest gfs and how it wasn't letting come more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Maria looking really rugged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Regan said: Yeah, I think it's safe to say that the NHC should update the N to NNW. Bastardi addressed this earlier and posted this pic. Said it looks to him to be west of north and not north as posted. Looks like more than a "wobble" imo. He also stated that he wasn't buying the latest gfs and how it wasn't letting come more west. Wow so JB thinks this may come closer to the coast? Usually he doesn't hype, so this could be legit. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: Wow so JB thinks this may come closer to the coast? Usually he doesn't hype, so this could be legit. Haha, JB? Never... This close, I wouldn't outweigh model consensus. Land interaction of the eyewall still remains an outlier. But obviously the prospect of a partial grazing, especially of outer banding, remains a real possibility for the Outer Banks. Maria has a large circulation and strong convective bands may mix down NE winds of hurricane or at least strong TS force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 I think JB was referring to the jut west and then east. It's in his tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 58 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Haha, JB? Never... This close, I wouldn't outweigh model consensus. Land interaction of the eyewall still remains an outlier. But obviously the prospect of a partial grazing, especially of outer banding, remains a real possibility for the Outer Banks. Maria has a large circulation and strong convective bands may mix down NE winds of hurricane or at least strong TS force. My analog for this system is hurricane Earl of 2010. It caused sustained 70 mph winds, and gusts to 89 mph, at Nags Head, as it passed due E at longitude 73.7 w. It was at 35.3 n and 74.0 w, as well. H Maria is of similar size, and Earl's proximity to the coast provides a good barometer of what may occur on the outer-most Outer Banks of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 San Juan radar completely destroyed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, andyhb said: San Juan radar completely destroyed. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: San Juan radar completely destroyed. Wow. I wonder if TSJU can get repaired faster because I expect TJUA won't be fixed for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 For reference, that's the first NWS radar completely destroyed since Andrew took out the Miami one. A downburst did crumple the radome of KDRT back in 2001, but the internal components were not exposed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Wow. From its last image and track of the storm, it looked like it took a hit from both the outer and inner eyewalls, and some of the stronger parts of both at that. And it's up on a fairly high hill. Would have been interesting if there was a functioning wind sensor at its position. NWS radars are built to take 145 mph gusts right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Wow. From its last image and track of the storm, it looked like it took a hit from both the outer and inner eyewalls, and some of the stronger parts of both at that. And it's up on a fairly high hill. Would have been interesting if there was a functioning wind sensor at its position. NWS radars are built to take 145 mph gusts right?Thereabouts. Must have been pretty extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 I was surprised the Keywest radar survived Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 As of this evening, former Hurricane Jose maintained a weak circulation near 38.6°N 68.0°W. At the same time, Hurricane Maria was along the periphery of a weak ridge located to its east-northeast. That position coupled with Jose's persistence suggests that the window of opportunity for development of ridging to steer Maria to landfall is closing fast. During the day, the ECMWF and GFS and with their ensembles remained consistent with their preceding runs. The guidance suggested that Maria would likely remain offshore. In addition, the probabilities associated with the full climatology data set and adjusted climatology data set fell to 28% and 20% respectively based on Maria's 5 pm position. My guess is that Maria's probability of U.S. landfall has now fallen to below 20%. North Carolina's Outer Banks could still experience tropical storm conditions. There remains a modest probability that some part of that area could briefly experience hurricane conditions. However, Maria is very likely to avoid U.S. landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 22 minutes ago, Amped said: I was surprised the Keywest radar survived Irma. If the Key West radar was positioned further east, it likely would've had more problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 The Marriott Courtyad in Isla Verde, PR took an absolute beating from Maria as I suspected it would. The Northeast facing wall of the 14 story tower partially collapsed and many of the rooms were exposed. I was unable to upload the picture because of size but I will attempt to post the picture tomorrow when I'm back on a PC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 2 hours ago, andyhb said: San Juan radar completely destroyed. There are no words for the destruction shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Maria cannot sustain in these cooler waters as evidenced by her continued weakening. I wonder how much longer she continues as ‘hurricane.’Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 2 hours ago, LVLion77 said: Maria cannot sustain in these cooler waters as evidenced by her continued weakening. I wonder how much longer she continues as ‘hurricane.’ Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Maria is currently over 27.5-28°C SSTs. I think the bigger issue is the large size of Maria's circulation, expanded pressure gradient and dry mid-levels. Being a large system, pulling airmass off of the SE CONUS is most likely having some effect. Still, the upper environment is excellent and the core could just as easily convect up again. Edit: RE: SSTs Quote Observations from a NOAA aircraft indicate that the SSTs beneath Maria are on the order of 24-25 deg C, which has probably contributed to the decrease of intensity. These relatively cool waters are likely due to mixing and upwelling from slow-moving Hurricane Jose, which traversed the area a little over a week ago. You just can't beat recon data. Satellite data is off place or lagging in showing Jose's colder pool upwelling from depth a little further east with respect to Maria's core. But again, recon is recon. That being the case, Maria would need to gain longitude and get closer to the Gulf Stream. Not likely for a while, given track. Therefore, further weakening seems the order of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 The IR presentation of Maria has continued to deteriorate and most of the inner core has now eroded away. While Maria is still producing some deep convection, mainly to the South and East of the center, it looks like the LLC might become exposed in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Amazing how fast #Maria deteriorated now that it has crossed 30N into #Jose's cold wake pic.twitter.com/bgqm5uwLqz 5:41 AM - 25 Sep 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 9 hours ago, Windspeed said: Edit: RE: SSTs You just can't beat recon data. Satellite data is off place or lagging in showing Jose's colder pool upwelling from depth a little further east with respect to Maria's core. But again, recon is recon. That being the case, Maria would need to gain longitude and get closer to the Gulf Stream. Not likely for a while, given track. Therefore, further weakening seems the order of the day. This anecdote illustrates the limitations of satellites. Satellites can provide enormous value, but there are some limitations. One limitation concerns surface temperatures, including SSTs. Direct observations (buoys, reconnaissance, etc.) provide better assessments of SSTs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 What are the options to replace the San Juan site permanently or temporarily? 1) Repair if spare parts are available 2) Produce new 88D (restart the production line, unlikely isn't it) 3) Move the phased array radar from Norman 4) Borrow some radar unit from the military (SWR-250 or another phased array unit?) 5) Doppler on wheels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 50 minutes ago, mfgmfg said: What are the options to replace the San Juan site permanently or temporarily? 1) Repair if spare parts are available 2) Produce new 88D (restart the production line, unlikely isn't it) 3) Move the phased array radar from Norman 4) Borrow some radar unit from the military (SWR-250 or another phased array unit?) 5) Doppler on wheels? UPRM has a radar program and X bands in hand that will play in AWIPS2, but infrastructure was an issue before Maria and she certainly won't make it easier to keep things online without some funding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 You just can't beat recon data. Satellite data is off place or lagging in showing Jose's colder pool upwelling from depth a little further east with respect to Maria's core. But again, recon is recon. That being the case, Maria would need to gain longitude and get closer to the Gulf Stream. Not likely for a while, given track. Therefore, further weakening seems the order of the day.At the time of my post I used intellicast sst map (not sure of the source for their data), which showed the 80 degree line pretty far south and in contradiction with your post before your edit. Jose took a lot of heat from the ocean. That is why I have felt for days we would see a rapid weakening and perhaps a transition away from tropical status. How often have we seen quick deaths in waters in just the upper 70s. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 50 minutes ago, LVLion77 said: At the time of my post I used intellicast sst map (not sure of the source for their data), which showed the 80 degree line pretty far south and in contradiction with your post before your edit. Jose took a lot of heat from the ocean. That is why I have felt for days we would see a rapid weakening and perhaps a transition away from tropical status. How often have we seen quick deaths in waters in just the upper 70s. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I was actually using the NOAA/NCEP's GOES SST data from the 23rd before Maria's cloud canopy obscured it. This is where satellite derived products come from. In any event, 25° isotherm cold pool upwelling just wasn't showing up. There were 27° showing in Jose's wake in this image close to last 24 hour position of Maria's core when plotting, but definitely not the 24-25° SSTs that recon found. Hence, Don's point. Can't beat recon and bouy data (when available). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 25, 2017 Share Posted September 25, 2017 Looks like the coast is getting raked by the outer band and some of that band's clouds is reaching all the way up to NY & NE. Also a bit OT for the thread but I know the NHC has called Lee "tiny" and you can see why, despite the fact that his winds are currently a wee bit stronger than Maria's - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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