Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

The slower core organization of Maria developing a closed eyewall may turn out to be a blessing for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Montserrat getting a hurricane versus major hurricane. Of course Montserrat has the bonus threat of mudflows off of Soufriere Hills volcano.

 

Wouldn't say that yet,  a lot of storms start RI around 980mb.   There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't say that yet,  a lot of storms start RI around 980mb.   There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.

 

 

I am aware. However, the current steady trend of intensification beats it already going through rapid intensification. Yes it could close off the eyewall and bomb out tonight/tomorrow. But just looking for positives and if it remains a slower intensification might not undergo RI until past those particular islands. Still a dangerous situation.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:
7 minutes ago, Amped said:
Wouldn't say that yet,  a lot of storms start RI around 980mb.   There best luck is if it forms a pinhole eye and sneaks between Islands.
 

I am aware. However, the current steady trend of intensidication beats it already going through rapid intensification. Yes it could go close off and bomb out tonight/tomorrow. But just looking for positives and if it remains a slower intensification might not undergo RI until past those particular islands. Still a dangerous situation.

Yeah, hopefully the next 27hrs isn't enough to get it up to 180mph, but you never know this season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With now Hurricane Maria continuing to add latitude, the kind of tracks that took storms that originated in an area within 100 nautical miles of Maria's formation safely south of the U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico are increasingly outliers in the historical climatology dataset. Given the previous ensemble data, such tracks were unlikely. Once those tracks were excluded, Maria's probability of landfall was roughly 2-in-5. 

Since 1851, 38% of the hurricanes that formed in the August 15-October 15 period and passed within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 5 pm position (13.8°N 57.5°W) made U.S. landfall. 63% of such cases saw landfall on the East Coast from Florida to North Carolina. 25% made landfall in southwestern Florida. 

The 12z ensembles show a reduced prospect of landfall. But the events that lead to that outcome are highly complex and, in part, dependent on Jose's fate. Therefore, I believe the climatological position of an approximately 40% of U.S. landfall still looks reasonable. Such landfall would be favored to occur on the U.S. East Coast with the Florida-North Carolina area most at risk. 
 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

IMO, the 500 mb pattern argues against Dog's being a good analog.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maria easily shook off the morning convective hiccup and is currently producing very intense convection around the eye.  If this continues all night, I would think the morning recon plane will find the pressure down at least ten millibars.

While earlier it appeared Guadeloupe would be the target, it is now looking more likely Dominica will be hit.  The latest euro and gfs both track over Dominica and Radar this evening shows the eye moving barely north of due west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This would be incredibly bad 

 

Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Maria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly
shear.  However, all indications are that the shear should diminish
during the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid
strengthening.  The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model
forecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance
of 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  Based on this, the
intensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a
major hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.  Late in
the forecast period, a combination of land interaction and
increasing shear should cause some weakening.  The new intensity
forecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall
agreement with the HWRF.

 

INIT  18/0300Z 14.2N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 14.7N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 15.4N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 16.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 18.5N  67.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 96H  22/0000Z 20.0N  69.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  23/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH  
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At 11 pm, Maria continued to add latitude to its track. As a result, its position of 14.2°N 58.4°W was north of such hurricanes as Dog (1951) and Janet (1955) at 58.4° longitude. That trend is expected to continued based on the guidance, which is in strong agreement. As a result, the probability of Maria's being a storm that tracks largely westward into the Gulf of Mexico and perhaps toward Mexico is small and continuing to decline. Overall, historical climatology suggests that the probability of U.S. landfall (CONUS, as Puerto Rico remains at an elevated risk of landfall) is increasing. However, as the ensembles showed a reduction in that probability, there's little reason for me to change my earlier thinking that Maria has about a 40% probability of U.S. landfall. Should such landfall take place, the East Coast remains at the greatest risk.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Wayyy too early to make any calls on OTS or LF currently. 

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.


The difference with this is that she will likely be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents a different scenario and with the WAR likely remaining strong, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, even if he is able to make the loop. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


The difference with this is that she will likely be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents a different scenario and with the WAR likely remaining strong, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, even if he is able to make the loop. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC. 

We either need dissipation or for Jose to scoot east and allow the ridge to rebuild. One thing is for certain. Jose's satellite appearance just went to garbage in a quick minute. He is completely sheared out mess right now. It almost looks like he has become decoupled with the mid level center moving NE and LLC slowly moving north still. Its hard to tell without good visible imagery.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, shaggy said:

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

Jose lingering around causes there to be a break in the ridge that Maria follows north and out to sea. Jose moving away causes the ridge to rebuild and a chance for Maria to hit the US. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...