Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, Windspeed said: Quote Geostationary satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Maria made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 615 AM AST. YUP, AWT ;-) sustained winds of 155 mph pressure 917 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 3 hours ago, csnavywx said: ERC progressing alarmingly rapidly per recon data and radar. Outer max already has stronger winds than the inner max. At this rate, she'll be done in a few hours. Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from 10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening, and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range. Looks like my call wasn't totally off-base after all,...just somewhat aggressive with the weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Shortwave really shows the IEW contraction - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from 10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening, and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range. Looks like my call wasn't totally off-base after all,...just somewhat aggressive with the weakening. Figures it'd landfall at 155, Ray, just below Cat 5 intensity. Now we can have the argument that since winds are reported at 5 mph intervals, why 157 is the minimum for Cat 5, and not 155! Since a 157 mph wind would never be reported. Of course, based on the observations, it's doubtful this was even 155 mph sustained on landfall. More like 135-140. Last Cat 4 landfall in PR was 1932- I wonder if that was the same storm that LF'd in Fla too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Figures it'd landfall at 155, Ray, just below Cat 5 intensity. Now we can have the argument that since winds are reported at 5 mph intervals, why 157 is the minimum for Cat 5, and not 155! Since a 157 mph wind would never be reported. Of course, based on the observations, it's doubtful this was even 155 mph sustained on landfall. More like 135-140. It intensified more than I had thought....so the difference is because of the 175 mph initial intensity....I was expecting like 155-160mph peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It intensified more than I had thought....so the difference is because of the 175 mph initial intensity....I was expecting like 155-160mph peak. Yeah none of the major models had it getting this strong. What was the minimum pressure with this- 909, I think? It was 914 with Irma. But I think the HH dropsondes found somewhat lower pressures- 905 mb with Maria, and 910 mb with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 The outer eyewall was really contracting on the last frames we had from TJUA radar. The ERC completed, and then the outer eyewall rapidly contracted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Updated NHC statement - 000 WTNT65 KNHC 201034 TCUAT5 Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 635 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR YABUCOA PUERTO RICO... Geostationary satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Maria made landfall near Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, around 615 AM AST. A sustained wind 60 mph (96 km/h) with a wind gust to 113 mph (182 km/h) was recently reported at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico. A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto Rico, recently reported a water level of 4.3 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). SUMMARY OF 635 AM AST...1035 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 65.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF VIEQUES ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 https://www.pscp.tv/w/1ynJOVqXRAyGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 First Cat 4 hurricane landfall in Puerto Rico since 1932. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 You can definitely make out the larger eye on visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 We can talk about weakening from wind speeds all we want, but to me, on satellite it just looks like she grew in size and lost a bit of that buzz saw look she had yesterday evening. Her coc is still robust and encapsulated by a large, symmetrical CDO, with copious deep convection. This 10 mb rise isn't going to lessen impact imo -- you lose 20 mph in max wind speed, but add severity to the surge and especially flooding as a result of heavy rainfall. Choose your poison--she looks quite healthy right now considering hours of mountainous land interaction leading up to LF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Windspeed said: You can definitely make out the larger eye on visible. Looks like San Juan is going to get in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: Looks like San Juan is going to get in the eye. I think they will but the new larger eye may spare them the NE eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just looking at some videos from Snapchat in St. Croix, and they got hit pretty hard from that OEW. Looks like anything leafy that wasnt a palm tree lost its leaves. Pretty decent damage to block structures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 https://www.periscope.tv/w/1mrxmmEjEzvxy Supposedly Univision reporter. Don't know where, but suspect San Juan. Excellent quality video, still live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Not sure of his exact location but a live strem: https://www.pscp.tv/jose_gabriel10/1ypKdlwegANKW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 https://www.periscope.tv/w/1mrxmmEjEzvxy Supposedly Univision reporter. Don't know where, but suspect San Juan. Excellent quality video, still live.Watching GMA, it's the same cam they sometimes show. I think ABC and Univision are partners. They've got a reporter on the ground in San Juan kinda just under that cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 There was a tremendous burst of -70C cloud tops in the RFQ just prior to LF. Maria was likely intensifying and might have actually recovered enough to be a cat 5 at LF. Since then the eye on IR has completely contracted as Maria's center begins to interact with the mountains near the center of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Amazing IR shot though definitely not something you want to see over land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: There was a tremendous burst of -70C cloud tops in the RFQ just prior to LF. Maria was likely intensifying and might have actually recovered enough to be a cat 5 at LF. Since then the eye on IR has completely collapsed as Maria's center begins to interact with the mountains near the center of PR. That was probably due to frictional convergence rather than intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: There was a tremendous burst of -70C cloud tops in the RFQ just prior to LF. Maria was likely intensifying and might have actually recovered enough to be a cat 5 at LF. Since then the eye on IR has completely collapsed as Maria's center begins to interact with the mountains near the center of PR. You mean an Andrew-like scenario? That one was reclassified to a Cat 5 landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: You mean an Andrew-like scenario? That one was reclassified to a Cat 5 landfall. No this was not a cat 5 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 minute ago, eyewall said: No this was not a cat 5 at landfall. Yeah, it didn't seem like it to me either, especially with the wind reports coming in it seemed more like a 135-140 mph storm at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 San Juan airport stopped reporting a few hours ago when the wind gusts reached 91 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Lost the Univision live feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Looks like an uptick in US mainland landfall members in the 06Z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 Gusting to 109 with a 6 ft surge a at Yabucoa on the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 20, 2017 Share Posted September 20, 2017 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: San Juan airport stopped reporting a few hours ago when the wind gusts reached 91 mph. Chris, surrounding areas reported wind gusts in the 110s (113-118 mph). Strongest gust I can find anywhere is 137-140 mph (112 sustained) on a small island just to the east of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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