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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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3 minutes ago, thess said:

(Dumb tech nerd question: wouldn't it be desirable to make these instruments extremely rugged, like aircraft black boxes?)

I think they just don't see the value in it.  Much like the 25000ft sensors for the ASOS never really came to pass.  They didn't see any reason since these are mostly for aviation purposes and you won't have any operation in these conditions ever 

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I was just in Puerto Rico this January.  This is going to be a tough one for them.  Mudslides are going to be a huge problem, too, I think.  They've got some pretty intense mountains there.  The winds on Cerro de Punta are going to be insane.  I doubt the radio towers on top of the peak are going to be standing after it's over.

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17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Awesome to watch her restructure herself throughout the day

I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses.

For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours.

This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight:

20170920.0151.gpm.x.89h_1deg.15LMARIA.15

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1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Latest Maria's IKE @11 pm EDT calculated by myself is 46 (up from 38 @5 pm EDT). SDP (Surge Destructive Potential Index), up to 3.7 from 3.4 (out of a max of 6)

This is probably the most important info we have. We all know winds are destructive in a very small area (and of course a relative amount outwards). Thanks for providing this. 

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21 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses.

For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours.

This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight:

20170920.0151.gpm.x.89h_1deg.15LMARIA.15

This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? 

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We may lose TJUA radar when the OEW crosses over the site. Someone with more knowledge of the durability of the tower and dome might interject here. Sitting at a higher elevation, it will be exposed to extreme winds. Even if it survives, it will probably be disabled.



3058.jpg

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21 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? 

You can read about how MIMIC works at CIMMS: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/description.html

Source microwave imagery is readily obtainable from NRL: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Click on the "85GHz" elements - green are passes in the last 6 hours. The percent at the left is how much of the "region" was captured in the pass (sometimes low percents still give you the core of the storm, but often they miss).

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Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...100 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...OUTER EYEWALL OF MARIA LASHING ST. CROIX...

A sustained wind of 90 mph (144 km/h) with a wind gust to 127 mph
(204 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix
in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 65.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Blake

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From the 11pm Hurricane Maria disco from NHC... a quick factoid:

The minimum pressure
estimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth
lowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane.

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Pressure is up a few mb to 912 on that last pass and she looks a little less intense on the loop, some warming cloud tops especially on the north and west side....SW corner of St Croix in the moat but unless there is a nice north wobble should stay out of the inner eyewall...

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11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Pressure is up a few mb to 912 on that last pass and she looks a little less intense on the loop, some warming cloud tops especially on the north and west side....SW corner of St Croix in the moat but unless there is a nice north wobble should stay out of the inner eyewall...

Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. 

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5 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. 

Yea that inner eyewall is being stubborn with letting go but def has last some of its moxy. I think Maria has it her full potential. I think we see a gradual rise in pressure as ERC attempts to finish and winds come down some. I'm thinking that we could see a landfall strength in PR anywhere from 155-165

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4 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Dropsonde was 912 MB with a splashdown of 22 knots - so still about 910 millibars. Latest vortex does report two eyewalls. A 10 NM and 18 NM. For a 'new' eye that 18 NM seems fairly small. TJUA showing the highest winds now with the outer (new) eyewall, so the ERC seems to be well underway. 

Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 :unsure:.....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR....

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 :unsure:.....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR....

Every MPH counts extra at this point.  Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad.

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11 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Every MPH counts extra at this point.  Big difference even though the 160 is still incredibly bad.

the only difference will be how far the debris fly. My concern is that the storm will increase in size and spread out the hurricane force winds. I believe this happens after an eyewall replacement.

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3 minutes ago, Rickg2 said:

the only difference will be how far the debris fly. My concern is that the storm will increase in size and spread out the hurricane force winds. I believe this happens after an eyewall replacement.

Yeah, see the post I made while you were making that one.

I stand by my original post though.  Per the damage wheel from the NWS 175 is twice as bad as 160.  You REALLY don't want to get far into cat 5 territory for winds when it's the difference between partial and total failure of the structures where people are sheltering. 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/saff_wheel.pdf

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The latest euro still takes Maria out to sea, but models are still inconsistent with Jose's future track/strength/influence.

Latest recon pass suggests a pressure of about 914 mb, and the max wind has come down a fair amount as the inner eyewall's energy is gradually transferred outward.  The max SFMR on the last pass was 132 mph.  I think the official 165 mph status is generous at this point.

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