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Jtm12180

Hurricane Maria

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Just now, jburns said:

Here's some data for you. 100% of posters who continue this crap after I warn them to stop get several days off.

Stop.

sorry, i thought that is what good posting looks like. people want t number info, i am giving it.

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1 minute ago, cmasty1978 said:

sorry, i thought that is what good posting looks like. people want t number info, i am giving it.

And we have a winner.  You can post again beginning at 6:06 pm Thursday. 

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I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico.  The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow.  Good night Johnboy.

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3 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico.  The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow.  Good night Johnboy.

Well, an eyewall replacement cycle given the eye is quite small and will interact with complex terrain in a few hours.

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5 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

I have no idea what is supposed to stop this thing from going full Irma at least until it runs over Puerto Rico.  The structure is spectacular with a feeder band going directly into the inner eyewall, it's sitting over bathwater, no shear, strong outflow.  Good night Johnboy.

That area that it is headed for right around Hispaniola is really bathwater -

 

ssts-09182017-14_atl.png

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How much disruption to either the structure or trajectory can we expect assuming the core passes over Dominica with it's rugged topology?

There are mountains up to 4700' there.  I wonder if there will be a jog as it gets closer.  I assume a weakly steered storm is more likely to have it's path affected by the local geography than one under strong steering?  Also with a more compact core it may be more response to those effects vs. a larger storm?

 

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22 minutes ago, Marmot said:
Low shear

wg8sht.GIF.bb2a1fe5b2ce6263929b814d96e7f9cd.GIF

 

Got to hand it to both the GFS and ECMWF upper modeling. For four days straight, 300 to 200 mb maps all showed spectacular upper support evolving over the Lesser Antilles. It had me concerned as early as Wednesday. I just wasn't sure if the cyclone would develop and be positioned where it is now. All that is history.

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Got to hand it to both the GFS and ECMWF upper modeling. For four days straight, 300 to 200 mb maps all showed spectacular upper support evolving over the Lesser Antilles. It had me concerned as early as Wednesday. I just wasn't sure if the cyclone would develop and be positioned where it is now. All that is history.

 

Unprecedented hurricane activity for under a month and an entire hurricane season for that region around the Hebert Box.

 

track.gif.1e50c6a867ca58dc4ac2c64999cb8c1d.gif

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core


For the sake of comparison, Patricia had a raw T of 8.3 after its bout of rapid intensification, with 190 kt (current storm is up to 7.3).  Your estimate could actually be realistic.

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I'm going to guess it's still a Cat 4 and that the wind speed is lagging a little behind what I assume is a very rapid pressure drop.  Details don't matter much when the core looks like that.

Wobblier storm than Irma wouldn't you guys say?

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