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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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26 minutes ago, mappy said:

You can wish it all you want, but without a stronger WAR to keep Maria west... it follows the weakness and goes OTS. 

Yep... that ULL over the SECONUS really is not nearly strong enough to pull Maria in with how far east she will be.

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Maria's ECMWF 96-144 hr positions would induce significant weakening. It's sitting right over a large cool pool of upwelling due to Jose's long duration stall last week. It's also in a southerly-to-southwesterly steering flow as the trough advances east. Maria would evolve into a large Jose-like storm besides.

 

Really the next 48-72 hours of how the major features evolve is critical with regards to track and intensity. We simply need Jose's 500mb vort to get squashed and the WAR to not be so backed to the east. The odds of landfall just don't seem probable unless that occurs in rapid fashion.

 

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I'm amazed that on this board, where people will grasp at straws on a JMA run or post graphics from the North Korean model if they show snow, in the winter, nobody has posted the 12Z CMC model run, which shows a hit on the Outer Banks at 120 hours.  Sure, it's an outlier and unlikely to verify, but clearly that model is seeing something the others aren't, presumably with the effect of Jose on the WAR and Maria's response to that.  Anyway, here are the 120 hour graphics from the Euro, GFS, and CMC.  Discuss.  

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_eus_6.png

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_eus_21.png

 

gem_mslp_uv850_eus_21.png

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34 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not commenting on exact track of Maria, I would wager that the euro/gfs are maintaining Jose's intensity for too long given his track and no mechanism to maintain tropical or subtropical characetistics whatsoever.

The latest guidance has him sitting over low 60F SST's and meandering over his own wake, which should only act to increase his rate of weakening.

It would be surprising to see Jose as anything more than a Startus swirl by this time tomorrow...

natlanti.fc.gif

 

 

Jose is functioning somewhat like a cut off low.   It is a hybrid with slight residual tropical characteristics.  The baroclinic zone

associated with the Gulf Stream provides enough latent heat to keep a system going.   Jose has several levels greater vorticity

than a weak depression or open wave.   Jose is a picture of equilibrium, slowly weakening with very weak steering currents.

As Jose weakens, it will become less stacked much like a decaying mature cut off low where the various upper levels loose register with

the SLP.

 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

I'm amazed that on this board, where people will grasp at straws on a JMA run or post graphics from the North Korean model if they show snow, in the winter, nobody has posted the 12Z CMC model run, which shows a hit on the Outer Banks at 120 hours.  Sure, it's an outlier and unlikely to verify, but clearly that model is seeing something the others aren't, presumably with the effect of Jose on the WAR and Maria's response to that.  Anyway, here are the 120 hour graphics from the Euro, GFS, and CMC.  Discuss.  

...................................................................................................................................................

My hunch is that verification statistics rule the day.

The EURO is far from perfect but has no rival when it comes to verification scores.

 

 

 

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Beaches will continue to take a pounding with Maria, which looks likely to become a very large offshore storm. 

I'm thinking she comes a bit closer to the US but should quickly exit OTS as the ridge weakens. I highly doubt she'll be the last storm to threaten the coast with such an amplified pattern continuing and a growing Nina.

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What the CMC has been showing is a rapidly dying Jose.. It pretty much squashes and fills Jose in allowing the ridge to Marias east and west connect sending it westward.. The CMC has been consistently showing this with previous runs.. at this point its a outlier but could be seeing something the euro and gfs picks up on in the coming days.. euro and gfs keeps Jose stronger in the upper levels that keep just enough break between the ridges which allows her to escape.. Not saying the euro and gfs is wrong especially with the euros verification scores...

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

I'm amazed that on this board, where people will grasp at straws on a JMA run or post graphics from the North Korean model if they show snow, in the winter, nobody has posted the 12Z CMC model run, which shows a hit on the Outer Banks at 120 hours.  Sure, it's an outlier and unlikely to verify, but clearly that model is seeing something the others aren't, presumably with the effect of Jose on the WAR and Maria's response to that.  Anyway, here are the 120 hour graphics from the Euro, GFS, and CMC.  Discuss.

 

 

Given the consistently awful CMC tropical verification scores (bad enough CMC is not included in any consensus models)  it is seeing something other models aren't as a direct result of its primitive nature. 

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1 hour ago, winterymix said:

Jose is functioning somewhat like a cut off low.   It is a hybrid with slight residual tropical characteristics.  The baroclinic zone

associated with the Gulf Stream provides enough latent heat to keep a system going.   Jose has several levels greater vorticity

than a weak depression or open wave.   Jose is a picture of equilibrium, slowly weakening with very weak steering currents.

As Jose weakens, it will become less stacked much like a decaying mature cut off low where the various upper levels loose register with

the SLP.

 

Jose is a large weakening vort. The UL vort is suffficient to induce forcing and cause convection for the time being until this energy is dissipated, but make no mistake, despite the proximity to the Gulf Stream there isn't a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Jose. Your analogy to a cut off low, would also indicate the atmosphere is equivalent barotropic. As I stated previously, neither Mid Latitude cyclone dynamics nor tropical forcing is being maintained right now. Jose is a rapidly weakening system, despite his misleading satellite appearance.

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56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You have to wonder if that 37.9" rainfall at Caguas is a new record for 24-36 hrs in Puerto Rico.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pr/nwis/uv/?site_no=50999961&PARAmeter_cd=00045

It's got to be a daily record for the territory. That total makes Maria the second wettest TC on record for Puerto Rico, behind only the October 1970 tropical depression which dropped a little over 40" over the course of many days.

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Don't know whats going on but Marias eye shape has improved rapidly in the last 30 minutes.  Definitely strengthening again.

 

Maria is still under a favorable 200mb pattern and the core is slowly moving away from Hispaniola. SSTs are still very condusive for intensification for the next 48-72 hours. I do not know if it will go though another period of significant deepening. That will have more bearing on the evolution of its internal structure. But it certainly won't be surprising.

 

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I have friends at Grace Bay in Provincials  if I am following this correctly they should get Cat 1 winds as Maria goes by, does that make sense.

That are northerners with no experience in a Hurricane but appear to be in a safe location. Am I close on the winds?

 

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44 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's got to be a daily record for the territory. That total makes Maria the second wettest TC on record for Puerto Rico, behind only the October 1970 tropical depression which dropped a little over 40" over the course of many days.

Yeah, the short term rainfall rate for Maria was off the charts. That 1970 event happened over 6 days.

http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/states/pr-flood.shtml

Another case of a slow moving tropical depression, resulting in rainfall over multiple days across the island, set the stage for the devastating floods of October 1970. The focus of the rainfall core shifted from day to day, but some areas experienced copious amounts of rainfall on consecutive days, causing rainfall amounts that could be measured in feet. The highest total over those 6 days was 38.42 inches at Jayuya and 41.68 inches at a station near Jayuya. Jayuya had a 24 hour total of 17 inches.

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5 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said:

Despite the beauty of the satellite presentation at landfall and pressure comparable to Andrew I'm not seeing damage comparable to Andrew in any way, shape, or form. I was in south Dade a month after Andrew and that hurricane destroyed entire shopping centers just as Katrina destroyed entire shopping centers on just about the entire length of the Mississippi gulf. Maria did not pack this kind of punch. I believe Andrew was a once in a thousand year storm and that Katrina s Mississippi surge was a once in a 500 year event.

Have we actually gotten reliable damage reports out of the south-east of PR? I keep seeing San Juan... but they likely didn't get the worst of the storm.

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3 hours ago, winterymix said:

Jose is functioning somewhat like a cut off low.   It is a hybrid with slight residual tropical characteristics.  The baroclinic zone

associated with the Gulf Stream provides enough latent heat to keep a system going.   Jose has several levels greater vorticity

than a weak depression or open wave.   Jose is a picture of equilibrium, slowly weakening with very weak steering currents.

As Jose weakens, it will become less stacked much like a decaying mature cut off low where the various upper levels loose register with

the SLP.

 

Jose is still warm core as of present. Will continue to weaken. 

 

3.phase1.png

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1 hour ago, Tibet said:

Have we actually gotten reliable damage reports out of the south-east of PR? I keep seeing San Juan... but they likely didn't get the worst of the storm.

The most experienced hurricane chasers in our hemisphere were on the ground there and their reports and footage suggests CAT 3 damage from my vantage point. 

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This is the first detailed report I have seen from Dominica.

https://pressroom.oecs.org/hurricane-maria-situation-report-1

(note there is an embedded NHC link which the report must have meant to freeze at Dominica's encounter but it shows the current advisory, ignore that part ... the pictures are about what I had envisaged and one can only imagine what may have occurred in isolated communities closer to the eyewall track).

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6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

Puerto Rico really impacted the storm. Interaction signature :) 


rb-animated.gif

law of balances states that you can estimate the impact A had on B by seeing what B did to A?

Hurricanes rarely recover a pinhole eye after interaction with terrain.  If they do recover like Hugo, or Wilma, they have a much larger eye.

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