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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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29 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I think it makes sense to toss that one reading on the Rio Grande de Manati until proven otherwise. It doesn't match with the readings before and after at that gauge, upstream and downstream on that river, or to any of the rivers in the area.

The COMP4 is more troubling because it isn't just one anomalous reading but it's at such an extraordinary level I'm not sure what to make of it.

CIAP4 seems to have been corrected.  Now appears to be hovering just above record level.

COMP4...now at 50' above record level...incorrect, hopefully.  Seems like a lot of readings just above major and just below record flooding...have to hope actual water level is indeed in that range.

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I just looked back at the COMP4 guage again, and it is still going up, insanely so. Wish we had something independant to say whether or not it is malfunctioning:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=sju&gage=comp4
The -999 flow entries are suspicious of malfunction:

 

Observed Data:

|Date(UTC)| |Stage| |--Flow-|
09/20 20:51 79.45ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:35 79.97ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:31 78.62ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:30 78.62ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:15 60.54ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:00 59.16ft -999kcfs
09/20 19:30 30.48ft -999kcfs
09/20 19:26 24.90ft 76.2kcfs
09/20 19:21 22.77ft 57.8kcfs
09/20 19:15 22.04ft 52.3kcfs
09/20 19:00 21.50ft 48.4kcfs
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9 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Remember how much Gloria weakened moving up the east coast in 1985, coincidentally around this time period? At one time east of the Bahamas, recon measured one of the lower pressures ever found in an Atlantic tropical cyclone. Of course that has been surpassed many times in the last 32 years.

Gloria was still likely stronger than people think though.  The insane 125-130 mph forecast they had out was wrong but I still think it was probably 95-105 when it hit.  Those winds were purely east of the center and east of it by 20-30 miles since Islip gusted to only 85.  BDR gusted to 97.  I was in Rocky Point at the time and easily thought we had winds over 100 

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2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

I just looked back at the COMP4 guage again, and it is still going up, insanely so. Wish we had something independant to say whether or not it is malfunctioning:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=sju&gage=comp4

Each of those points should be 15 or 30 minutes apart, meaning that would be 30+ foot rises in time scales well under an hour. And it doesn't look like it is missing data (like CIAP4 which went from 10 AM to 5 PM without a report). So just to my eyes that looks like bad data. Something could easily be jammed in the sensor (much like ice in the winter can produce similar results). 

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19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today.  After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast.  The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

 

Don’t think I’ve seen that happen before. Huge props to the flight crew for making that happen. Certainly adds to the paperwork for them and could have just as easily ended the flight early. 

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22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Each of those points should be 15 or 30 minutes apart, meaning that would be 30+ foot rises in time scales well under an hour. And it doesn't look like it is missing data (like CIAP4 which went from 10 AM to 5 PM without a report). So just to my eyes that looks like bad data. Something could easily be jammed in the sensor (much like ice in the winter can produce similar results). 

This is the USGS site link for that gauge - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=50043800

The last update was about 2 hours ago (I know different gauges report out at different intervals).  The one thing notable is the cumulative rainfall noted at the USGS link (> 17" so far).

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

This is the USGS site link for that gauge - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=50043800

The last update was about 2 hours ago (I know different gauges report out at different intervals).  The one thing notable is the cumulative rainfall noted as the USGS link (> 17" so far).

USGS has discharge rate of "fld" which means "flood damage" - so, malfunctioning

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4 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

USGS has discharge rate of "fld" which means "flood damage" - so, malfunctioning

I assumed "flood" for that abbreviation but it does have a link to the term!

Instantaneous and Daily Value Status Codes

     ---------------------------------
     Code   Description
     ---------------------------------
     Ssn    Parameter monitored seasonally
     Bkw    Flow affected by backwater
     Ice    Ice affected
     Pr     Partial-record site
     Rat    Rating being developed or revised
     Eqp    Equipment malfunction
     Fld    Flood damage
     Dry    Dry
     Dis    Data-collection discontinued
     --     Parameter not determined
     Mnt    Maintenance in progress
     ZFl    Zero flow
     ***    Temporarily unavailable

Thanks for confirming!  I think many of the gauges across the island are going through similar failures.  We saw that with Harvey for the gauges in and around Houston and how they failed.

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37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today.  After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast.  The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

Please direct me to the full bulletin where this came from. I'm going to use this elsewhere but I want to site where it came from. thanks!!

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Looks like Jose weakens quite a bit on the 18Z GFS, and the ridges appear to connect, but hard to tell if there is still a weakness for Maria to escape OTS or not so far in the run through hr108... IMO steering gets pretty murky on this run by hour 108 as the cyclone slows significantly. 

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11 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Looks like Jose weakens quite a bit on the 18Z GFS, and the ridges appear to connect, but hard to tell if there is still a weakness for Maria to escape OTS or not so far in the run through hr108... IMO steering gets pretty murky on this run by hour 108 as the cyclone slows significantly. 

The key is that trough moving across the Rockies around hr 162. It certainly is deep enough to pull Maria inland rather than push her ots. The main issue I'm seeing now on the GFS is timing. 

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1 hour ago, Random Chaos said:

I just looked back at the COMP4 guage again, and it is still going up, insanely so. Wish we had something independant to say whether or not it is malfunctioning:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=sju&gage=comp4
The -999 flow entries are suspicious of malfunction:

 

Observed Data:

|Date(UTC)| |Stage| |--Flow-|
09/20 20:51 79.45ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:35 79.97ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:31 78.62ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:30 78.62ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:15 60.54ft -999kcfs
09/20 20:00 59.16ft -999kcfs
09/20 19:30 30.48ft -999kcfs
09/20 19:26 24.90ft 76.2kcfs
09/20 19:21 22.77ft 57.8kcfs
09/20 19:15 22.04ft 52.3kcfs
09/20 19:00 21.50ft 48.4kcfs

I believe -999 is a missing value, so probably no more gauge (or no working gauge)

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The convective complex interaction with that strong feeder earlier has gone bonkers the past few hours with -80° tops.
fb93e0756034efc30dc2ee5eb3e309da.jpg

But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 

maria-IR-09202017.PNG

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But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 

maria-IR-09202017.PNG.2d7fa39ee12747fb13d062efa9cc7b94.PNG

The large eye looks to be clearing out. But my focus there was more on the convective complex over PR. We no longer have visible to see the individual training cells which was our next best thing besides radar. The complex is troubling.
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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
22 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:
But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 

maria-IR-09202017.PNG.2d7fa39ee12747fb13d062efa9cc7b94.PNG
 

The large eye looks to be clearing out. But my focus there was more on the convective complex over PR. We no longer have visible to see the individual training cells which was our next best thing besides radar. The complex is troubling.

Oh I know... That has been rolling across there all day.  If you look at the WV images, that band has been building and expanding NW -> SE for some time and you can see why the river/stream gauges are choking.  You can loop the water vapory images (LL & ML) here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-200-0-100

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Hopefully I can get an answer to this question. Can someone point me to he website where you can actually follow the track of the hurricane as compared to the official track? Someone posted it for Irma but like an idiot, I didn't save it. Thanks in advance. 

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Hopefully I can get an answer to this question. Can someone point me to he website where you can actually follow the track of the hurricane as compared to the official track? Someone posted it for Irma but like an idiot, I didn't save it. Thanks in advance. 

Probably University of Wisconsin's CIMSS. Pick your cyclone and then select which satellite overlay you prefer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
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8pm summary -

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
PUERTO RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

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