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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

They were removed enough from the landfall location that the wind should have weakened by the time the maximum winds reached them. 

I agree that they probably didn't get sustained cat 5 winds there, but they probably gusted over 140MPH. Not sure if we'll ever know since it appears the equipment failed. 

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6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This post is an excellent lessons as to why you don't blackbox interpret products you don't understand. 

Fair enough. I dont know much about Tropical for sure. Would you like to explain to me what is wrong with the product when it is showing decreasing winds just before landfall?

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Fair enough. I dont know much about Tropical for sure. Would you like to explain to me what is wrong with the product when it is showing decreasing winds just before landfall?

This is the epitome of "read more, post less"

The cyclone was just finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave imagery you posted shows the new eyewall taking over and the inner eyewall dying out. If this had been able to spend a few more hours over water Maria would have likely been stronger at landfall in PR.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

This is the epitome of "read more, post less"

The cyclone was just finishing up an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave imagery you posted shows the new eyewall taking over and the inner eyewall dying out. If this had been able to spend a few more hours over water Marie would have likely been stronger.

Ok. I understand what an ERC is.  But that still doesnt make my comment wrong. The wind speed was decreasing at landfall.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Ok. I understand what an ERC is.  But that still doesnt make my comment wrong. The wind speed was decreasing at landfall.

You're partially correct, and partially incorrect. The winds in the original eyewall were decreasing. That's where the 175MPH winds were yesterday afternoon. At the same time, the winds in the outer or new eyewall were increasing, but there wasn't enough time for the winds to increase back to where they had been in the inner eyewall prior to landfall. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Ok. I understand what an ERC is.  But that still doesnt make my comment wrong. The wind speed was decreasing at landfall.

It had weakened, but the weakening was done, as the ERC had completed...essentially, PR caught Marua at the best possible time relative to its internal structural cycle, as I had anticipated yesterday. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

You're partially correct, and partially incorrect. The winds in the original eyewall were decreasing. That's where the 175MPH winds were yesterday afternoon. At the same time, the winds in the outer or new eyewall were increasing, but there wasn't enough time for the winds to increase back to where they had been in the inner eyewall prior to landfall. 

Bingo.

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I think it's a mistake to thing of an ERC as a "weakening" process, unless it's combined with unfavorable environmental factors like shear, dry air or cooler SSTs.

Yes the maximum sustained winds drop off (temporarily) because they were located in the inner eyewall which goes away.

BUT the IKE of the cyclone may stay consistent or even increase as the windfield expands. Add to that, the new/previously "outer" eywall was maturing and likely capable of mixing down everything it had.

(points already made by others as I was typing).

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It had weakened, but the weakening was done, as the ERC had completed...essentially, PR caught Marua at the best possible time relative to its internal structural cycle, as I had anticipated yesterday. 

It actually made things worse, it wasn't the extreme winds in the tight core that was going to cause Island wide extensive  infrastructure damage,  it was the spreading out of those winds, the rapid cooling of tops at landfall exacerbated the rainfall, what was a tight core with cane winds confined to a 30 mile radius spread those out 100's of miles. There is nothing good save for the areas that would have gotten wind speeds 25 mph higher

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

Don, interesting list of analogs we can come up with, major hurricanes that hit PR and what they did afterwards?  1928 Cat 5, hit Fla "Lake Okeechobee Hurricane", 1932 Cat 4 as you stated, went into Central America as a TS, 1989 Hugo went on to hit SC as a Cat 4, and now we have Maria.

 

Since 1851, 15 hurricanes made landfall in Puerto Rico. 60% went on to make U.S. landfall. However, 2/3 of then were at or west of 70°W longitude when they reached 20°N latitude and 78% were at or west of 74°W longitude when they reached 25°N latitude. Almost all of the guidance has Maria passing east of those benchmarks. Therefore, based on those benchmarks and the guidance, there is a much lower likelihood of U.S. landfall than what might be implied solely from climatology.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It actually made things worse, it wasn't the extreme winds in the tight core that was going to cause Island wide extensive  infrastructure damage,  it was the spreading out of those winds, the rapid cooling of tops at landfall exacerbated the rainfall, what was a tight core with cane winds confined to a 30 mile radius spread those out 100's of miles. There is nothing good save for the areas that would have gotten wind speeds 25 mph higher

Yeah i think this is true.  I feel like things got worse for san juan with the new dominant oew not better. 

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It actually made things worse, it wasn't the extreme winds in the tight core that was going to cause Island wide extensive  infrastructure damage,  it was the spreading out of those winds, the rapid cooling of tops at landfall exacerbated the rainfall, what was a tight core with cane winds confined to a 30 mile radius spread those out 100's of miles. There is nothing good save for the areas that would have gotten wind speeds 25 mph higher

Maximum sustained winds weakened.

Only fact I stated.

I believe that is what the Saffir/Simpson Scale is based on.

Obviously there are other factors at play when speaking of structural changes. 

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2 minutes ago, medville said:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  61
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 70.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

Hi, we have a Jose thread. This thread is for Maria. Thanks!

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Arecibo reports now updated to (edit) 1418z, peak gust  98 knots at 1354z (wind still NE to 1418z and still gusting to 96 knots).

Degraded eye must be very close now, next hour of reports will probably capture it if the sensors survive the surge.

Interesting to note that sustained winds increase from 72 knots at 10m to 78 knots at 20m. If that rate of increase was sustained to 100m (top of high rise buildings in San Juan) it would imply 126 knots at that level -- probably not quite that linear but over 100 knots likely. 

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Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

The last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950
UTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the
southeastern coast of Puerto Rico.  Subsequent 1-minute imagery from
the GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate
that the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto
Rico, around 1015 UTC.  Now that the center is moving over the
mountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled,
and the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar
velocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my
best guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate.  Maria's
center is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico
soon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better
estimate of how much Maria has weakened.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt.  This
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours,
followed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria
moves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a
broad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into
the Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance is tightly clustered this
cycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC
forecast track.

Once Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some
time for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the
Atlantic Ocean.  However, the shear is expected to be less than 10
kt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to
restrengthen a bit over that time period.  After 36 hours, a gradual
increase in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual
decrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the
forecast period.  Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to
the favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity
forecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the
forecast period.

Since we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has
become cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position
updates are being discontinued.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the
island. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local
officials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and
rainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin
Islands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous
wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 18.4N  66.5W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 12H  21/0000Z 19.2N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N  69.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 21.2N  70.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 22.4N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 28.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 31.5N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Looks like Maria took a gulp of dry air just to the South of the eye thanks to the down sloping off the higher terrain to the South of San Juan. You can see that dry air where the crescent shade of light green appears near the center of the island on the WV loop. The actual center of Maria is probably located just to the North of there and should be completely back over water within the next 2-3 hrs.

 

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