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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

Barring a change in direction it looks to make a close run at San Juan.

2017-09-19_222409.jpg

 


Ugh! Given the unfavorable wobble over Dominica, maybe we'll get a favorable wobble offshore (or westward) upon landfall away from San Juan and population.  A guy can hope...

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

15L_tracks_latest.png

Obviously Puerto Rico and Turks & Caicos are in trouble but the sharp turn N pretty much saves Hispaniola and the Bahamas so there is that bright side. 

Edit: of course a wobble W due to interaction w/ PR which seems unlikely based on model clusters could still create major problems for DR. 

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At 11 pm, Hurricane Maria was centered at 17.3°N 64.7°W. Maria was continuing to bear down on Puerto Rico where it should make landfall tomorrow morning either as a Category 4 or perhaps Category 5 hurricane.

The EPS continued to argue strongly against strongly against Maria’s making landfall on the Continental United States. However, both the 18z GFS and 18z GEFS increased prospects of such landfall. In part, this guidance weakened Jose faster than the ECMWF did and it showed Jose having less interaction with Maria than the ECMWF did. 

The probability associated with historical climatology (1851-present) associated with hurricanes that developed in the 8/15-10/15 period and that passed within 100 nautical miles of Maria’s 11 pm position was slightly lower than was the case at 11 am. That probability was approximately 45%.

However, an adjusted perspective based on the synoptic pattern yielded a landfall probability of 31%. The adjustments were based on (1) excluding tropical cyclones that 
tracked into the Gulf of Mexico and toward either Central America or Mexico or Texas to Louisiana and (2) excluding landfalls for 9 of 12 Florida landfall cases from the data set. The excluded cases were hurricanes that were west of 70°W upon reaching 20°N latitude. 

At present, Maria is likely to be somewhere between 68.5°W and 69.5°W at 20°N latitude. That is very close to the forecast position shown on the 12z ECMWF. The ECMWF has been averaging an error of about 30 miles over 48 hours so far with Maria. Therefore, I am reasonably confident that Maria will be east of 70°W when it reaches 20°N latitude.

The last four NHC forecasts for Maria’s longitude at 20°N latitude were:

5 am forecast: 69.0°W
11 am forecast: 68.8°W
5 pm forecast: 69.2°W
11 pm forecast: 68.7°W

Overall, as had been the case this morning, I believe the probability of Maria’s making landfall on the mainland U.S. is about 30%. The East Coast would be overwhelmingly favored for any such landfall. 
 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I assume many of them go out due to power but I see many cases where the rest of it keeps working the entire event but the anemometer fails 

I don't know if they are using the same IFWS that we do up here, but if that's the case it is a pretty sensitive instrument. Rogue gusts and drop outs are not uncommon.

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3 minutes ago, thess said:

(Dumb tech nerd question: wouldn't it be desirable to make these instruments extremely rugged, like aircraft black boxes?)

I think they just don't see the value in it.  Much like the 25000ft sensors for the ASOS never really came to pass.  They didn't see any reason since these are mostly for aviation purposes and you won't have any operation in these conditions ever 

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I was just in Puerto Rico this January.  This is going to be a tough one for them.  Mudslides are going to be a huge problem, too, I think.  They've got some pretty intense mountains there.  The winds on Cerro de Punta are going to be insane.  I doubt the radio towers on top of the peak are going to be standing after it's over.

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17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Awesome to watch her restructure herself throughout the day

I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses.

For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours.

This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight:

20170920.0151.gpm.x.89h_1deg.15LMARIA.15

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1 hour ago, wxmx said:

Latest Maria's IKE @11 pm EDT calculated by myself is 46 (up from 38 @5 pm EDT). SDP (Surge Destructive Potential Index), up to 3.7 from 3.4 (out of a max of 6)

This is probably the most important info we have. We all know winds are destructive in a very small area (and of course a relative amount outwards). Thanks for providing this. 

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21 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

I both like and dislike the Morphed Microwave Imagery. It's neat to see the progression of the storm, but it can also be misleading in that everyone really needs to pay attention to the timestamps on the last actual microwave overpasses.

For those that aren't familiar with the CIMSS product, it takes microwave overpasses from the various satellites (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR, and GMI) and "fills in" the blank frames between the actual data. Because it is filling in the data (aka, morphing new frames between the known frames), it often gives misleading details on the evolution of the storm. The actual times of the passes vary (these are polar orbiting satellites), anywhere from a couple hours apart to sometimes as long as 10+ hours.

This is the actual latest microwave pass, which is 2.5 hours old now - clearly shows the new outer eyewall is now the dominant feature - if this was deep in the Atlantic, we'd already be saying the ERC was essentially done, but because we have both recon and radar, we know it's still got a very strong inner eyewall that hasn't yet given up the fight:

20170920.0151.gpm.x.89h_1deg.15LMARIA.15

This is actually really incredible information -- is there somewhere where we can learn more about this? 

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