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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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1 minute ago, wxmx said:

It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked"

thanks. if and how much do you think maria will weaken before landfall in PR. i know its going to be bad regardless, just wondering.

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Not 100% sure this will happen or really how it even works in the first place. But I would like to say that if this outer band keeps contracting(it is, per TJUA) but fails to generate significant subsidence and still remains connected to the IEW through little spiral bands, it could just contract in on the IEW and have the IEW absorb the band. I have never seen this happen outside of Irma, but she did this several times. Generating significant subsidence(and thus eliminating the feeder bands) is the key to burning off the inner eye. If we can't do this, the IEW probably won't weaken.

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Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-65.50,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579

I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation?

Thx.

 

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1 minute ago, NoOneAtAll (NOAA) said:

Would appreciate someone looking at this display of wind speeds (set at surface but adjustable up - click "earth" for menu) in Maria:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-65.50,17.50,3000/loc=-63.817,17.579

I can't get a result that equates with Cat 5 speeds anywhere. Is this site getting faulty data or is there another explanation?

Thx.

 

Low resolution

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2 minutes ago, SeanBarg said:

That twitter handle was posting every fake damage shot possible earlier.. I would take that video footage with a grain of salt as I don't know that the choppers had time to reach the island before nightfall given the conditions. 

Also actually thought the damage would look much worse than what is being shown here too.

 

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Recon should have the next center fix in an hour and it appears they they departed on time. Refer to the below chart for this and the next mission: 

 FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 76        FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 74
       A. 20/03Z,06Z,09Z              A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0715A MARIA           B. AFXXX 0815A MARIA
       C. 20/0115Z                    C. 20/0945Z
       D. 17.0N 64.4W                 D. 17.6N 65.5W
       E. 20/0230Z TO 20/0900Z        E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Don't expect to see any helicopter footage out of Dominica until tomorrow at the earliest. Turbulance and flight conditions would have remained awful there throughout the day.

 

CDEMA may have done aerial recon this evening but still nothing released:

 

Due to the conditions, the CDEMA head said the agency would have to identify appropriate landing sites for helicopters since fixed-wing aircraft could not be used.

 

CDEMA has activated its Regional Response Mechanism and aerial reconnaissance was taking place at the time of the Press conference.

 

The Regional Security System, including a CDEMA damage assessor, flew over Dominica  to get a better sense of what was happening on the ground and take aerial photos.

 

There was also a planned flight by a partner military institution to take a rapid assessment team and possibly one search and rescue person and a communications kit to the ravaged country.

 

http://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/100659/cdema-gears-complex-dominica-mission

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3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

station LTBV3, a national buoy system station (possibly at the beach) on St. Croix. monitor the gusts and barometric pressure plot. Pressure plot should get a lot more extreme!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LTBV3

The picture of the station is on the page. It's a shack right along the water.

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