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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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One thing that will be interesting to see is what impact the land interaction with PR will have with Maria. It will weaken, obviously, but it could skirt along the northern part of the island when it's trying to come off and shift things west later on down the road. Just something I'll keep an eye on tomorrow morning. 

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You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

 

The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked.

 

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The outer band does look to be intensifying. Unfortunately, even if St. Croix doesn't get into the northeast eyewall, that outer band may have long duration winds of hurricane force as it is moving over them. They are still going to get rocked.

 

Yeah, it is already pretty impressive on that St Croix livestream. 

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6 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

You can see the outer ring of convection on radar associated with the secondary wind max mentioned in the 5 pm NHC discussion. So far it doesnt appear to be choking off the eyewall though. I would assume that if an ERC did start now it probably would not complete before PR landfall.

Outer ring should pass over St. Croix.  Unlucky timing for them for it to be strong at this point.  Looks like two healthy eyewall features to me.

2017-09-19_210239.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, it is already pretty impressive on that St Croix livestream. 

Keep in mind that the St. Croix livestream is in Christiansted, which is on the north side of the island and more centrally located.  The worst of the storm will likely be the west end of the island, near Fredericksted.

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Just to compare a few numbers, flight level from the last recon pass was about 9000 feet when it passed through the secondary wind max, which was read as about 103mph (90kts) flight level winds. Higher altitude, winds will be less. We are now seeing widespread winds at 14000 feet at 120 to 130mph, with an occasional 130mph+ rate (radar estimated). This is in about an hour and a half. That's a big jump in the 2ndary wind max velocity.

(note: the 145mph readings on radar appear to be radar noise - they are all over, not just in the wind maxima regions)

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5 minutes ago, Hotair said:

HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm?

Yes, but the HMON isn't ocean coupled in the Atlantic basin so we generally disregard the actual intensity output from it. It may still be useful in the sense that it "sees" an otherwise favorable environment. But, be careful about taking it too literally.

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HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

 

Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin like in the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria.

 

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2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:
9 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:
HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.
 

Yes, though ironically HMON is the acronym for Hurricanes in a Multi- scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, it is not ocean-coupled in the Atlantic Basin unlike the Pacific. Its pressure intensities for mature systems get overdone in the Atlantic and should not be trusted for Maria.

any reason why it wasn't coupled to the Atlantic?  We have so many models- is there a version of that model that is coupled to the Atlantic?

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1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

857mb lol what a joke. anyway does the ERC seem to be beginning soon?

It's already underway. It will take many hours to complete, if at all, taking into consideration the outer eyewall is still very large and the inner one is just beginning to show signs of being "choked"

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