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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location

Thanks, thought it was relatively close. As far as the infrastructure in PR, it's about to get destroyed. They have already said expect to have no power for months and no drinking water for weeks. The islands electric provider filed for bankruptcy in July. Most commutation towers were built 20 plus yrs ago to withstand 135mph. 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:
What is it, about 12 hrs until PR LF?
 

It will at least be making landfall during daylight hours versus night. At least people will be able to see what the hell they're doing while all hell is breaking lose and have to find other shelter.

Correct me if wrong but during this horrendous hurricane season this will be the first daylight LF? All others were at night?

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3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Can someone share the link to the recon that supports the 175 mph surface? Not that i don't believe it, just want to be able to find it.

 

Thanks

Dropsonde a couple pages back is probably the most compelling evidence. Like 5 people posted it. Also were 152kt and 151kt unflagged SFMR on the 910mb pass.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks.

Going to be close on where it weakens a bit, but not looking like it will be much at this point.

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

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3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

The hindrance would only be helpful to those places impacted after Puerto Rico.  Cuba still got 160 mph winds from Irma.  Also, higher elevations will likely see higher winds (and rainfall.)  

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4 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

PR's highest elevation is about 4500 feet. Is that substantial enough? Do you believe that the mountains there to the North East will disrupt Maria, like Irma was hindered by Cuba?

The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.

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2 minutes ago, thewxmann said:

The portion of Cuba that Irma traversed is flat. 4500 ft will absolutely disrupt Maria. Dominica is a small island with 4500 feet peaks and it disrupted Maria for awhile.

It will disrupt it, but the point is, the disruption will only help those places in the path of Maria after PR.

 

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32 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

I was trying to find the resource that calculates IKE and had no luck, except for one that wanted me to plug in my own numbers. Do you know where to find the resource that people were posting for Irma that calculated her IKE? I'd love to see that for Maria. 

No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here

 

I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory

 

 

59c1b8ed72d1c_ScreenShot2017-09-19at7_39_39PM.thumb.png.8fa98a58190572cd61f0e5f0821a4730.png

 

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3 minutes ago, wxmx said:

No, but you can use the one that wanted you to plug the numbers. I explained where to get the data here

 

I got an IKE of 38.2 for Maria using the data from the 5pm EDT advisory

 

 

59c1b8ed72d1c_ScreenShot2017-09-19at7_39_39PM.thumb.png.8fa98a58190572cd61f0e5f0821a4730.png

 

Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. 

 

That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5?

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Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Thank you for that info. I was a bit confused on how to use the resource but that is extremely helpful. 

 

That seems so low for IKE. Is it because it's such a small eye and a relatively low time of being a cat5?

Time is not a variable taken into account by IKE. It's a compact storm, that's why it's "low". Andrew's IKE was around 20 at peak and Charley's around 10.

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Yeah, wishful thinking at this point. Just trying to grasp at straws. I just feel so frantic watching this -- it always brings back such horrible memories of moving to New Orleans, Aug 1 2005. Was just hoping that maybe it would help to bring some dry air into it's core from the elevation, and saw there was mountains where it's meant to landfall, but I guess it's too little too late at this point, huh. 

There are, they just aren't 4500 feet. More like 3200 at their peak.
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Just now, bobbutts said:

The problem with mountainous terrain is that there can be severe flash flooding and mudslides in their where they drain.

 

The outer bands will already be causing tremendous amounts of flash flooding before the center even gets to the islands. Massive life-threatening mud slide threat here 

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