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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact.

Highest elevation is 1,165 ft.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact.

highest peak is 1k, not sure if that will do much.. vs Dominica almost 5k

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact.

Far less mountainous, unlikely to be disruptive.

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8 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

TWC seriously sent a reporter to San Juan, PR. Also one of their better reporters, Paul Goodloe. Dumb move by TWC.

They're the weather channel, of-course they sent someone to PR. There are several storm chasers down there as well I'm sure. They know there is a high likelihood that they'll be there for an extended period. The footage should be spectacularly horrifying. 

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Does anyone know what the terrain is like on St Croix? I'm wondering if a direct hit there could disrupt the core similarly to what happened with the impact to Dominica. Obviously it would be terrible news for St Croix but it might save PR from total catastrophic impact.

Mt eagle has an elevation of 1100 feet so i imagine some potential disruption if the eye make direct overpass   Edit. Never mind others have pointed out Dominica was 5x. Higher and that didn't buy much in terms of disruption.    Best bet for pr outside of staying at sea would be having it tangle a bit with El Yunque 

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Just now, Superstorm93 said:

 

Instantaneous 

 

That was the SW eyewall. Winds might be stronger. 

 

That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall.  And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909.

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

 

That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall.  And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909.

I'm not really sure what the actual intensity would be after seeing that sonde.

A few have malfunctioned, but definitely need more data here. 

Could be at least 160 knots now. 

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Just now, Superstorm93 said:

I'm not really sure what the actual intensity would be after seeing that sonde.

A few have malfunctioned, but definitely need more data here. 

Could be at least 160 knots now. 

Yeah - the average wind from ~ 900 hPa to ~ 920 hPa was greater than 160 kts.  Pretty incredible.

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34 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Does anyone have the link handy where they measure the IKE for the current hurricanes? 

You can calculate it yourself:

http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwind/ikeCalculator/IkeCalculator.php

 

You can fill in the data with the latest Forecast Advisory:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT5+shtml/192042.shtml?

 

The only data missing is the Rmax, which is the radius of maximum winds. It's not that important for results, but I calculated about 6-7 nm.

 

Not sure where the 60TJ came from, I think the standard is to use the IKE TS, and I only get an IKE of around 38, which is double of Andrew's, for example. Hurricanes with IKE around 60 are like Camille or Ike.

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