Hurricane Maria

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, TomAtkins said:

I'm not saying it wont be bad. only that the devastation wont be as total as it was in Dominica, or places like Barbuda was for Irma. The difference in damage between say Cat 3 winds and Cat 5 is pretty substantial.

a million people loss power in irma and the storm was much farther away then maria will be as it crosses the island the damage will be extreme for sure...

[das]

Coming into view....

[wxmx]

19 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Keep in mind that protection from cyclones is in fact one of the reasons that San Juan is located where it is.  Particularly in the colonial era, protection from cyclones was critically important, so most Caribbean / SE Asia capitals are on the leeward side of their respective islands or otherwise protected from the usual cyclone track (the great exception is Santo Domingo, which is overdue for a big hit).

And Kingston

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Remember, the NHC track is on the southern edge of those hurricane model tracks. So far, Maria is almost spot on following the NHC's track, which has landfall on the southeastern coast of the island. 

It's not going to matter much for San Juan as long as they stay in the RFQ. 

For those that have never been there, San Juan has an expansive, highly developed water front. I am not sure how susceptible it is to storm surge, but it doesn't appear to be very protected. This is close to the area where the cruise ships dock.

[Coopdog]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

a million people loss power in irma and the storm was much farther away then maria will be as it crosses the island the damage will be extreme for sure...

Keep in mind that there are still 60,000 without power in PR from Irma.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This is probably the worst track a storm can take for San Juan if it verifies since the strongest winds will be from the NE directly off the water.

Agreed.

San Juan is close to where I placed this red dot.

[wxmx]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is probably the worst track a storm can take for San Juan if it verifies since the strongest winds will be from the NE directly off the water.

 

 

 

Worst track would be from a TC coming from the NE. Since that's an unlikely track, a track from the E or SE are the next on bad tracks.

[jojo762]

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that Maria regained category 5 status shortly after the last
advisory, and that it is currently maintaining an intensity near 140
kt with a central pressure near 927 mb.  The aircraft data suggests
an outer wind maximum that could be the start of an eyewall
replacement cycle, but this feature does not yet have a good
signature in radar data or microwave imagery.

The eye of Maria has been wobbling quite a bit, but a smoother
long-term motion is 300/9.  There is little change to the track
forecast reasoning or the forecast track since the previous
advisory.  A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is
expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on
this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or
over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  After that
time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken,
partially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane
Jose off the U.S. east coast.  This pattern should cause Maria to
turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by days 4-5.  The
track guidance is tightly clustered through 72 h and fairly well
clustered at 120 h, and the new track is to the left of center of
the cluster mainly between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Maria should remain in a generally favorable environment through 48
h, and based on this and the latest guidance the new intensity
forecast keeps Maria at 135-140 kt up to the time of landfall in
Puerto Rico.  After crossing Puerto Rico, the upper-level winds are
expected to become less favorable, and the intensity forecast shows
a slow weakening that follows the upper edge of the guidance.  A
complication to the intensity forecast is that there will likely be
fluctuations caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on
top of the general trends shown in the official forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands
today and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone
in these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 16.3N  63.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 17.0N  64.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 18.0N  65.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 18.8N  67.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 19.6N  68.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 21.5N  70.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 24.5N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 27.5N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

[gymengineer]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It's not going to matter much for San Juan as long as they stay in the RFQ. 

For those that have never been there, San Juan has an expansive, highly developed water front. I am not sure how susceptible it is to storm surge, but it doesn't appear to be very protected. This is close to the area where the cruise ships dock.

 

Yup, I'm agreeing with you that San Juan right now look more likely to be on the right side of the hurricane than the left side, as some of those hurricane models are showing. We go to San Juan at least twice a year, always staying at La Concha. The NHC is forecasting 6-9' surge, which is a pretty extreme event for the island. Hugo, for reference, was a 2-3' storm surge along the north coast of PR. 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, triniiphone said:

Some pictures from Dominica  

 

 

A google search will show that none of these are from Maria. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, gymengineer said:

Yup, I'm agreeing with you that San Juan right now look more likely to be on the right side of the hurricane than the left side, as some of those hurricane models are showing. We go to San Juan at least twice a year, always staying at La Concha. The NHC is forecasting 6-9' surge, which is a pretty extreme event for the island. Hugo, for reference, was a 2-3' storm surge along the north coast of PR. 

I have stayed at the Marriott twice which is almost right next door. The area directly behind the resorts is very flat as well, with many one story homes and buildings. A 6-9' storm surge could submerge a lot of neighborhoods. 

[adiabatic13]

For St. Croix, Vieques, Culebra and San Juan, Maria's projected track is the worst Cat 5 track conceivable; simply put, it has not occurred before in the modern era, impacts on San Juan itself would be catastrophic if it plays out as NHC is projecting (all of those locations experience the NE semicircle of the core, with San Juan and Culebra never feeling the slight reprieve of the eye itself). 

edit: Many photos and videos being posted here are not of Dominica, not sure why anyone would be trying to mislead on that, can't see how that is to anyone's benefit.

[jojo762]

Expected winds and impacts for San Juan...

"

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - San Juan and Vicinity

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 3 Hurricane force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 100-120 mph with gusts to 170 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this evening
          until Thursday morning
        - Window for Hurricane force winds: early Wednesday morning
          until Wednesday evening

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
          equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
          to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
        - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
          Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
          loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
          shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Widespread power outages with some areas experiencing
          long-term outages
        - Many bridges and access routes connecting barrier islands
          impassable
        - Structural category to sturdy buildings with some having
          complete wall and roof failures
        - Complete destruction of mobile homes
        - Numerous roads impassable from large debris"

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Expected winds and impacts for San Juan...

"

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - San Juan and Vicinity

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 3 Hurricane force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 100-120 mph with gusts to 170 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this evening
          until Thursday morning
        - Window for Hurricane force winds: early Wednesday morning
          until Wednesday evening

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          major hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of
          equivalent Category 3 intensity or higher.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          devastating to catastrophic wind impacts. Remaining efforts
          to secure properties should now be brought to completion.
        - Extremely dangerous and life-threatening wind is possible.
          Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury,
          loss of life, or immense human suffering. Move to safe
          shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Widespread power outages with some areas experiencing
          long-term outages
        - Many bridges and access routes connecting barrier islands
          impassable
        - Structural category to sturdy buildings with some having
          complete wall and roof failures
        - Complete destruction of mobile homes
        - Numerous roads impassable from large debris"

I guess they are expecting landfall a bit South of the model consensus. 

[wxmx]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

You can see what a bad spot San Juan would be in from a SE approach should it verify.

 

 

 

 

 

I see that, that's why I said that a TC approaching from the SE would be bad. But the absolute worse would be from the same TC coming from the NE...untouched RFQ with N winds, longer time for piling surge as well.

[Coopdog]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I have stayed at the Marriott twice which is almost right next door. The area directly behind the resorts is very flat as well, with many one story homes and buildings. A 6-9' storm surge could submerge a lot of neighborhoods. 

Just examined my vaca pics of San Juan. The pic you posted of the area around the port is probably one of the few areas that could take on large amounts of storm surge. The majority of San Juan is protected by high enough elevations that the surge will not impact. In addition in old San Juan there are many streets that have high elevation that will keep them safe from flooding. The areas around the forts and downtown old San Juan should be ok from surge but the port area could take on lots of water.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

I see that, that's why I said that a TC approaching from the SE would be bad. But the absolute worse would be from the same TC coming from the NE...untouched RFQ with NW winds, longer time for piling surge as well.

This is the realistic worst track since its very unlikely that that a major would hit there from the NE.

[OSUmetstud]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I guess they are expecting landfall a bit South of the model consensus. 

Give its the nws theyre probably tayloring the impacts to follow the nhc track forecast?  

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Coopdog said:

Just examined my vaca pics of San Juan. The pic you posted of the area around the port is probably one of the few areas that could take on large amounts of storm surge. The majority of San Juan is protected by high enough elevations that the surge will not impact. In addition in old San Juan there are many streets that have high elevation that will keep them safe from flooding. The areas around the forts and downtown old San Juan should be ok from surge but the port area could take on lots of water.

Well that's why I specifically stated that the potential surge impact area was near the Port. The resort area however is about 20 miles to the East, in a very low lying area.

[wxmx]

Just now, bluewave said:

This is the realistic worst track since its very unlikely that that a major would hit there from the NE.

Probably, just nitpicking...sorry  .... Also, an E-W track would be a little worse than the SE track...but that's just me being argumentative.

[wxmx]

1 minute ago, thess said:

Could the mod/mods who keep deleting or hiding my posts shoot me a DM and explain why? Other posts regarding the fake pics were not deleted. This happened during Irma too. If you've got something specific against me, and god knows why since I rarely post, just ban my account and save everyone time.

I didn't delete them, but they are removed to keep the thread clutter free...nothing against you.

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, wxmx said:

I didn't delete them, but they are removed to keep the thread clutter free...nothing against you.

Apparently i should delete them in order next time.

[adiabatic13]

There have been no verified photos of the damage on Dominica that we're aware of yet (and we're monitoring), we're expecting some helicopter footage to come in this evening, but expect total destruction, outside of some pockets of protected geographic nooks.

[NJwx85]

Here is a picture of the very beautiful resort area known as Isla Verde, about a half hours drive East of downtown San Juan. It's located very close to where the airport is, which is behind the resort in the very bottom left corner of the picture. The area behind these hotels is a highly populated residential area which is located in a valley. The higher terrain is a good distance to the Southeast of this location, on the other side of the airport. 

[Derecho!]

1 hour ago, Coopdog said:

 

Thanks! Anyone follow this guy DaBuh on twitter? Evidently he hit Irma spot on and is now saying due to atmospheric changes that will occur perhaps fla is in play for Maria? 

Couldn't not locate a relevant Twitter account, but based on your description I'd say 99.99% probability they're a fraud. 

[Coopdog]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Here is a picture of the very beautiful resort area known as Isla Verde, about a half hours drive East of downtown San Juan. It's located very close to where the airport is, which is behind the resort in the very bottom left corner of the picture. The area behind these hotels is a highly populated residential area which is located in a valley. The higher terrain is a good distance to the Southeast of this location, on the other side of the airport. 

Want disagreeing with you, just posting info to back up your post of the port area being most likely to take on surge. I believe this area that you posted is what locals call "new" San Juan as the most recently modern development in San Juan vs the downtown old San Juan. 

[wxmx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No problem. At least on the current forecast track, it looks like the core would be further west into San Juan than with Hugo in 1989. So it will be interesting to see if the current track holds or shifts a little bit.

The San Narciso hurricane from 1867 would be near the worst case scenario for San Juan, had it kept it's intensity as a major for a little longer.

 

[Bluebythec]

3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

Couldn't not locate a relevant Twitter account, but based on your description I'd say 99.99% probability they're a fraud. 

https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

[Coopdog]

1 minute ago, Derecho! said:

Couldn't not locate a relevant Twitter account, but based on your description I'd say 99.99% probability they're a fraud. 

@DaDaBuh he is definitely not fraud. Just wondering how reliable.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

2 minutes ago, wxmx said:

The San Narciso hurricane from 1867 would be near the worst case scenario for San Juan, had it kept it's intensity as a major for a little longer.

 

And this is because it takes a dip under the island which puts them in the RFQ, as well as surge issues from that direction that it came in?