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Hurricane Maria


Jtm12180
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8 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

So, you're just going to ignore a dropsonde then that measured 140mph at the surface and 160+mph just above the surface?

Yes. In the last 4mb the wind speed increased, indicating it was a gust. 4mb above the surface it was 112kt. At 5mb above the surface it is 117kt. With friction this is likely 110kt at the surface. You can't take the dropsondes verbatim every time since this one shows a pretty classic signature of a gust. 

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation.

Probably completes transition to purely extratropical and begins redepening that way, while not necessarily restrengthening(could be just expanding). Although I haven't looked at the euro. I'm just making a call based on current presentation and what's forecast.

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3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

euro showing jose strengthening over the next 24hrs, not sure about that given the current presentation.

Also shows it restrengthening as it makes its loop back to the west. LOL. GFS seems much more believeable than the euro with its handling of Jose at this point imo.

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As long as the ECMWF continues to evolve and deepen a post-tropical/hybrid mid-level storm out of Jose and lock it down in the same general region off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast, it will continue to funnel mid-level steering in an OTS solution for Maria. Until we see it either go back to modeling a much weaker and filled/dissipated remnant of Jose's 500mb vort or kick it out altogether, modeled landfall for Maria is unlikely.

 

I do think it is overdoing the intensity of 500mb cold core baroclinic forcing. I think a more likely solution is the ECMWF's earlier runs showing strong filling of heights and a build back of ridging. That still doesn't mean landfall, but a close call versus sharp OTS. Still a long way out.

 

 

 

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I sure wish we didn't have to wait until evening for the next recon measurements.  The eye has popped and cleared very quickly, with a very intense ring around it.

The eye has shown significant motion toward the nw the last couple hours.  Wobble or not, that could put the worst on the northern coast of Dominica rather than the sw, where the capital is.  Most of Guadeloupe's population is in the central to north part of the island(s), but there is also a decent population center on the sw corner, which could take a big hit if Maria tracks far enough north.  Worst case would be the eye tracking into the middle of Guadeloupe, but that's probably too far north.

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28 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

 

nice little story about that volcano.  Out of 30,000 people, Only 2 people survived.   1 of them was locked up in a concrete jail at the time.  (pictured in link)  It's also what saved his life -

http://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-prison-cell-of-ludger-sylbaris

If there's one thing these hurricanes have given me, it's a lesson in geography of the Lesser Antilles....... 

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