bluewave Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Looks like the first time in the satellite era that 3 hurricanes as intense as Irma, Jose, and Maria passed through the Hebert Box #1 in one month or a complete season. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=91 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 It's worth noting that the central islands are much more populous than the northernmost islands Irma trashed. Barbuda and Tortola were home to 1600 and 23,000, respectively, while Guadeloupe, Dominica, and Martinique are home to 405,000, 73,000, and 386,000. A major cane directly hitting Guadeloupe, which is currently along the forecast track, would be a severe blow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the first time in the satellite era that 3 hurricanes as intense as Irma, Jose, and Maria passed through the Hebert Box #1 in one month or a complete season. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=91 As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox. So my email address is [email protected] After signing up I realized it should be herbertbox not herbertsbox. People always ask me what herbertsbox means. No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me... Okay, back to Maria.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox. So my email address is [email protected] After signing up I realized it should be herbertbox not herbertsbox. People always ask me what herbertsbox means. No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me... Okay, back to Maria....Hebert... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne Posted September 16, 2017 Share Posted September 16, 2017 Maria is moving W or 270 degrees at 20 mph. NHC mentions a weakness in the ridge but does not say what causes it. This is when the WNW movement starts to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 hours ago, olafminesaw said: What a buzzsaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Long term modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 35 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 37 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox. So my email address is [email protected] After signing up I realized it should be herbertbox not herbertsbox. People always ask me what herbertsbox means. No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me... Okay, back to Maria.... Hebert... Jeez never caught that too. I'm so lame thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 21 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Jeez never caught that too. I'm so lame thanks Lulz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: Good thing they haven't rebuilt anything on Barbuda yet. JFC. I read an article on Friday. They evacuated Barbuda for Jose, everyone. As of Friday nobody had returned to the island. Not sure if/when people will return as they are lacking the dollars and supplies to rebuild there infrastructure. On another note this has put a huge hurt on eastern Carib cruising. As of now St Maarten, St Thomas have been shut down. Many cruises now headed toward Dominique and St Kitts to replace affore mentioned islands. These islands rely on cruising as a major part of there economy and if Dominique and St Kitts get shut down for awhile it could really be bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 9 minutes ago, Coopdog said: I read an article on Friday. They evacuated Barbuda for Jose, everyone. As of Friday nobody had returned to the island. Not sure if/when people will return as they are lacking the dollars and supplies to rebuild there infrastructure. On another note this has put a huge hurt on eastern Carib cruising. As of now St Maarten, St Thomas have been shut down. Many cruises now headed toward Dominique and St Kitts to replace affore mentioned islands. These islands rely on cruising as a major part of there economy and if Dominique and St Kitts get shut down for awhile it could really be bad. Then the cruising industry should be donating huge sums of cash to the relief and rebuilding efforts. The cruise lines have made a fortune on the backs of these islands and I hope they remember that now in the lesser Antilles biggest time of need. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coopdog Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, shaggy said: Then the cruising industry should be donating huge sums of cash to the relief and rebuilding efforts. The cruise lines have made a fortune on the backs of these islands and I hope they remember that now in the lesser Antilles biggest time of need. Cruise lines have made several stops in st Maarten and st Thomas with provisions. Just about any ship that has gone by has dropped something off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 hour ago, shaggy said: Then the cruising industry should be donating huge sums of cash to the relief and rebuilding efforts. The cruise lines have made a fortune on the backs of these islands and I hope they remember that now in the lesser Antilles biggest time of need. Before you comment, maybe go to their website and see the donations. https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruise-ships/hurricane-disaster-relief Also, the road goes both ways. The islands would have not have gotten where they are without tourism revenue. I hope the ports open soon so money will begin bringing local economies back to normal. https://skift.com/2013/09/25/the-caribbean-islands-most-dependent-on-cruise-business/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 At 11 pm, Maria was centered at 12.5°N, 53.7°W. Maria was continuing to track to the west. Maria is expected to gradually add a northerly component to its motion. However, over the last 6 hours, the NHC track was nudged somewhat south and westward through 72 hours (about 40 km by hour 72). Until Maria begins to add latitude, climatology will likely understate its landfall prospects. Taking into consideration the EPS and GEFS, as well as climatology that excludes select storms that remained largely on a westward trajectory through the duration of their existence, it appears that Maria has an approximately 40% probability of making U.S. landfall (excluding Puerto Rico). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 hours ago, olafminesaw said: These write ups are great. What would be awesome is if you could do the day 3 and/or day 5 NHC forecast positions as well. Maybe even create a weighted average (maybe like 40% current, 40% d3 and 20% d5). Obviously would be a lot of work, assuming you do it manually, but it would be a genuinely helpful metric for forecasting. I will periodically focus on the hour 72 mark, as by hour 120 the NHC's errors grow quite large. Hour 72 could provide better insight into actual trends associated with tropical cyclones' paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Convective towers are really taking off around the vortex. The MLC is tight. This may initially reach hurricane intensity with a very small core/diameter eyewall in the next 24 hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 hours ago, SN_Lover said: Before you comment, maybe go to their website and see the donations. https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruise-ships/hurricane-disaster-relief Also, the road goes both ways. The islands would have not have gotten where they are without tourism revenue. I hope the ports open soon so money will begin bringing local economies back to normal. https://skift.com/2013/09/25/the-caribbean-islands-most-dependent-on-cruise-business/ No doubt they are helping big with current provisions that are needed badly. Financial donations to help rebuild infrastructure like water and electric is more what I was referring to. She is slowly building what looks like a small CDO. If she manages to get a nice core built tonight then the islands might be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Maria into NC/SC border on the Euro as a strong hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maria into NC/SC border on the Euro as a strong hurricane All depends on what Jose does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Obviously, the models will continue to flop around with Jose's future several days out, but tonight's euro is the first model run that shows a scenario in which Maria can still hit the US even if Jose gets blocked and meanders along the US coast. Jose would have to sit over the cold water and die out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Obviously, the models will continue to flop around with Jose's future several days out, but tonight's euro is the first model run that shows a scenario in which Maria can still hit the US even if Jose gets blocked and meanders along the US coast. Jose would have to sit over the cold water and die out. The closer to the coast track and some sheer weaken Jose a lot more. Seems like the closer Jose can get to the coast, the greater Maria's chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Maria into NC/SC border on the Euro as a strong hurricane Yes and more insane is the processes for landfall are completely opposite from last night's 00z run. The ECMWF stalls Jose for so long that it begins to fill the 500 mb vort and raise heights. First, I don't ever recall that occurring with a tropical system off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Force is strong with that block. Jose's 500mb vort gets completely filled and dissipates. Strong heights build back over the Mid-Atlantic and Maria gets driven inland. Oh well, this is all still a long time out in fantasy land and probably won't happen, but still fascinating for such a solution to be modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox. So my email address is [email protected] After signing up I realized it should be herbertbox not herbertsbox. People always ask me what herbertsbox means. No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me... Okay, back to Maria.... Just a remarkable amount of intensity and activity in such a short time there. Almost like we are seeing some type of rebound effect after years of of dry air and suppression in that region. So we swing from one extreme to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Did Irma's path and intensity create any limiting factors to Maria once it gains latitude? Upwelling or removal of heat content? NHC seems bullish on Maria's intensity prospects, and the current path is very concerning for some of those smaller islands and PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richatdjacks Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Did Irma's path and intensity create any limiting factors to Maria once it gains latitude? Upwelling or removal of heat content? NHC seems bullish on Maria's intensity prospects, and the current path is very concerning for some of those smaller islands and PR.I can't find the map right now but it appears Maria will track south of Irma's wake and cooled waters. Little effect expected.Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities are very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 24 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Did Irma's path and intensity create any limiting factors to Maria once it gains latitude? Upwelling or removal of heat content? NHC seems bullish on Maria's intensity prospects, and the current path is very concerning for some of those smaller islands and PR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 23 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Did Irma's path and intensity create any limiting factors to Maria once it gains latitude? Upwelling or removal of heat content? NHC seems bullish on Maria's intensity prospects, and the current path is very concerning for some of those smaller islands and PR. Upwelling isn't an issue given the time elapsed since Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: That looks like Jose's wake. I don't think the "path" near the Bahamas is anything. Either way, it's clearly not a factor based on Maria's path... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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