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WxWatcher007

Hurricane Jose

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS heads into S NJ around 228... 12z GGEM says no thanks

The slow forward motion is what really dains out the potential. Nonetheless, verbatim 12z GFS is a historic coastal erosion event locally. GGEM consistently on the east side of guidance, certainly not living and dieing by that model. The quebecois trough seems to have gone away and that locks in impacts of some kind. Euro does some bizarre thing's with Irma remnants.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Setting the O/U on GFS ensembles hitting the US at 3.5.

 

I think its 3... maybe a sneaky 4... damn you on the odds call :lol:

 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think its 3... maybe a sneaky 4... damn you on the odds call :lol:

 

Nice. I won't be one of those people poo pooing all over this. I think it could be intriguing eventually. I just want to see what the guidance does after the loop. That far out in the Atlantic, I think it's much harder to get a US hit than Irma. A brush of the coast though could be good for a chase day :) 

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21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Nice. I won't be one of those people poo pooing all over this. I think it could be intriguing eventually. I just want to see what the guidance does after the loop. That far out in the Atlantic, I think it's much harder to get a US hit than Irma. A brush of the coast though could be good for a chase day :) 

It's coming

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I stepped away from the keyboard for almost 48 hours. Lol. 

Not a good UL pattern for Jose from what I looked at this afternoon. If the ukie is right then I will be more interested. The way I see it is the only thing we can track is how close Jose can pass to the coast while never giving our yards any effects other than some easterly breezes leading in. There's no real mechanism or features in place to push Jose inland for the next week that I can see. A capture would be too far north as well. 

Much can change of course but I'm not seeing anything post worthy to make a compelling argument for LF south of us. 

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If this manages to hit the east coast I am officially perplexed.   That ridge poking up from the Gulf Coast pretty much writes fish storm on the wall.

 

300wh.conus.png

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One thing I'll say is the stronger Jose is in the short term the further south he goes. Soundings are 0z 9/13/2017 and 18z 9/13/2017.

However both also show about 20+ kts shear

Jose Environment Sounding 1.JPG

Jose Environment Sounding 2.JPG

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UKMET still taking it into florida.  It drops the storm way south between 24 and 36hrs other models stall it for turn it wnw, by 96 it's over the Bahamas.

Probably wrong, UKMET was too far south with Irma also.

CMC and NAVGEM are clueless it's not going to move west at our latitude.

GFS and ECMWF look like they have the right idea given the upper level flow. 

12L_tracks_18z.png

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