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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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16 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Next week looks fun. 

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_30.png

trough was sharper on this run. Although the scenario is different from the past storms, as this front is bringing cold air, if we can get it to dig a bit more, we could have some really good snow rates for when the changeover happens. If only we had cold air in front of it....

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9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The snow for The 28th through to the 30th looks like one of the best upslope signals I have seen in several years. 

Good! This is getting boring really fast. Like some have mentioned, this winter has been cold but not necessarily snowy. It's time to up some totals. It's almost February. Just give me a year of normal snowfall and I'll take it.

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Lastest GFS continues to tick up the moisture with our NW flow event.  One key feature I see with this is there will be an abundance of 700mb moisture overnight Monday which will only help to increase snow totals.  I've seen plenty of good NW events with just 850mb moisture but we have some 700mb to enhance it.  Duration doesn't look to long as it should start shortly after sunset Monday and last probably until middle Tuesday.  With the QPF amounts indicated I would expect widespread 3-5 inch amounts along the higher terrain near the TN border.

gfs_precip_24hr_charlotte_14.png

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1 hour ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Lastest GFS continues to tick up the moisture with our NW flow event.  One key feature I see with this is there will be an abundance of 700mb moisture overnight Monday which will only help to increase snow totals.  I've seen plenty of good NW events with just 850mb moisture but we have some 700mb to enhance it.  Duration doesn't look to long as it should start shortly after sunset Monday and last probably until middle Tuesday.  With the QPF amounts indicated I would expect widespread 3-5 inch amounts along the higher terrain near the TN border.

The GFS has me getting 3" but I'll take a couple more.  

aviary_1517075400575.jpg

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This event already has it's own HWO 2 to 3 days out. Nice.


CZ033-048>052-059-282030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-
325 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina mountain
locations near the Tennessee border.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Winter weather possible. Snow showers will develop late
Monday and increase into Monday night.
..Tuesday... Winter weather possible. Snow showers will continue
early Tuesday morning and then diminish through the day. Light
accumulations are possible, with heavier amounts along the higher
ridges.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

$$
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1 hour ago, SnoJoe said:

This event already has it's own HWO 2 to 3 days out. Nice.


CZ033-048>052-059-282030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Northern Jackson-
325 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina mountain
locations near the Tennessee border.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Winter weather possible. Snow showers will develop late
Monday and increase into Monday night.
..Tuesday... Winter weather possible. Snow showers will continue
early Tuesday morning and then diminish through the day. Light
accumulations are possible, with heavier amounts along the higher
ridges.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

$$

Can we include Buncombe County in that HWO, maybe by Monday they will I've seen it happen many times they're reluctant to add Buncombe County until the last minute.  Sometimes they wait for the snow to break containment then they include Buncombe in the WWA.

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12z 3km NAM has a stout stream at the onset late Monday night. Not exactly sure what to call it, a developing clipper, NWF, or a back door cold front? LP off the coast interacts with a 5h vort max that moves over the Apps. I believe that with the strength of the winds above 850mb, a dusting to an inch could be possible all across WNC. Favored NWF areas should do pretty well. Flow orientation looks to be a tad more nnw, so it will be interesting to see how that affects totals.


.

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23 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Wasn't it the 3K NAM that was spitting out these kinds of totals with last weeks event and no one got more than a few flakes?  Or am I'm thinking of another model? Maybe the setup is different though.

Yup, it was the one.  Hopefully it'll redeem itself with this event.  I feel better about this one though since the 3k nam isnt the only one showing a decent event up here.  

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Yup, it was the one.  Hopefully it'll redeem itself with this event.  I feel better about this one though since the 3k nam isnt the only one showing a decent event up here.  


There was some really dry air at 700mb that the 3km NAM began to pick up on about 36 hours out. The WNW flow compared to the NW flow seems to me to suffer from dry air intrusion. Those low dew point aren’t showing up just yet, but it is something to mindful of. There seems to be more lift associated with this compared to the last so the mesoscale dynamics will also be enhanced. Not expecting a blockbuster with this one, but we can’t use what happened with the last flow as precedent for what will occur next. Lots to observe and learn from with this one, should be interesting!
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Looks fun for our border counties. GSP will issue their WWA's soon according to their AFD:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected with local accumulations up to 3 inches.
  Wind gusts 50 to 55 MPH. Plan on slippery road conditions.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Smyth and Grayson Counties. In North
  Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties

 

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For Joe and Buckethead:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
  are expected, with localized amounts up to 5 inches along the
  higher ridge tops. In addition, very windy conditions will
  develop with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, and higher
  elevation gusts of 40 to 50 mph at times.

* WHERE...Avery, Madison, Yancey and Mitchell Counties in the
  North Carolina Mountains.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Slippery roads will likely develop Monday
  night as temperatures fall through the 20s. Winds may blow
  around loose objects and isolated power outages are possible
  early Tuesday. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times as
  well as some blowing snow may develop
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9 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Looks fun for our border counties. GSP will issue their WWA's soon according to their AFD:


...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected with local accumulations up to 3 inches.
  Wind gusts 50 to 55 MPH. Plan on slippery road conditions.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Smyth and Grayson Counties. In North
  Carolina, Ashe and Watauga Counties

 

I heard they're thinking the snow tomorrow night will reach the valley floors, how much I'm not sure, maybe half inch around Asheville.  I hope so.

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And finally Met1985:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM
EST TUESDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
  are expected, with localized amounts up to 5 inches along the
  higher ridge tops. In addition, very windy conditions will
  develop with northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, and higher
  elevation gusts to 45 mph at times.

* WHERE...Elevations above 3500 feet in Swain and Haywood
  Counties

 

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9 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Yeah, we might squeeze out a 1/2 inch. Never know, just getting in the right place of a good snow shower could get an an inch.

I see they've upped the chance of snow tomorrow night for KAVL from 30% to 50%, that's a plus.  With a low of 22 roads would be slick Tuesday morning.

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Hickory is right on the fringe of the foothills, but I consider myself a tangential member of this thread, as well.  I enjoy reading what you guys have to post in here and wanted to share my short video with you.
Anyway, I unexpectedly got a drone for Christmas this year, complete with a camera/video setup.  It's a Dromida XL 370mm FPV.  Today was only my second attempt at flying it, but I wanted to try to get some aerial views in my neighborhood.  Not being too experienced, I was afraid to get much higher with it than the treetops, but I got some video footage of the snowfall.  I've got a lot to learn about navigating slowly so as to not make my viewers too sick watching it.  Anyway, it's no AirNelson production, but have a look, if you'd like.  I interspersed a few slo-mo ground shots too, and hang around after the credits to really see my skills...
 
 


Very cool Calc! Welcome to the drone club! Happy flying!


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