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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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3 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

5.2 in avl. Gsp would bust spectacularly if that were to happen. 

GSP did not mention the HRRR in their afternoon discussion.  Appears they are going with NAM/GFS blend, which does show less than 1" for AVL.

Nod to the HRRR - it has been showing longer duration snow event for the mountains each of its runs today. No waffling. Based on the over-performance of this system upstream, have to believe the HRRR is onto something (maybe not 5" worth, but also more than 1").

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7 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

GSP did not mention the HRRR in their afternoon discussion.  Appears they are going with NAM/GFS blend, which does show less than 1" for AVL.

Nod to the HRRR - it has been showing longer duration snow event for the mountains each of its runs today. No waffling. Based on the over-performance of this system upstream, have to believe the HRRR is onto something (maybe not 5" worth, but also more than 1").

18z NAM was a bump up also.  This is a tough forecast.

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19 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Where is this 3-4" of snow gonna come from that  the latest models are showing

HT or HVWard can correct any inaccuracies, but the way I understand it, our main snow will not be from the line crossing the border, but from when a meso low develops in upstate SC and the precip backbuilds from that into the mountains. Where the low develops, to the NW of that precip should blossom which is what all the models seem to have some indication of that now. So, it could be us, could be the foothills.  Like I say, those with more knowledge, feel free to correct me.

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9 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

HT or HVWard can correct any inaccuracies, but the way I understand it, our main snow will not be from the line crossing the border, but from when a meso low develops in upstate SC and the precip backbuilds from that into the mountains. Where the low develops, to the NW of that precip should blossom which is what all the models seem to have some indication of that now. So, it could be us, could be the foothills.  Like I say, those with more knowledge, feel free to correct me.

You are correct. 

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