nrgjeff Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Get out the skis and boards! No concerns for the Mountains this coming weather pattern. Lower elevations have to grapple with enough -NAO, cutters, dry NWF, mild interludes, dueling banjos, whatever... Everything is more forgiving at 4,000 FT. First I think the North Atlantic weather charts look better than the NAO number. Arctic looks blocked up and the -EPO is robust. I'm confident about the trough in the East. I feel good about shortwaves riding through it. If a Gulf low cuts early for CLT or RAH, the mountains should still be fine. No Gulf low, no problem. Clippers are great for the mountains. Frankly the dry snow is better than that from a Gulf low. You want to ski the West in NC? Give me clippers! I would not be surprised if lower elevations whiff from southeast Tennessee to the central Carolinas, but I believe the Mountains will get something. I'm hopeful 1-2 West-like ski days result. Before holiday pricing and crowds would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z gfs throws down an impressive snow for the mountains a week from today. 6+ for most. Edit: Wow huge totals for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: 12z gfs throws down an impressive snow for the mountains a week from today. 6+ for most. Edit: Wow huge totals for the mountains. Lol, this run is the first true weenie run of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 35 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Get out the skis and boards! No concerns for the Mountains this coming weather pattern. Lower elevations have to grapple with enough -NAO, cutters, dry NWF, mild interludes, dueling banjos, whatever... Everything is more forgiving at 4,000 FT. First I think the North Atlantic weather charts look better than the NAO number. Arctic looks blocked up and the -EPO is robust. I'm confident about the trough in the East. I feel good about shortwaves riding through it. If a Gulf low cuts early for CLT or RAH, the mountains should still be fine. No Gulf low, no problem. Clippers are great for the mountains. Frankly the dry snow is better than that from a Gulf low. You want to ski the West in NC? Give me clippers! I would not be surprised if lower elevations whiff from southeast Tennessee to the central Carolinas, but I believe the Mountains will get something. I'm hopeful 1-2 West-like ski days result. Before holiday pricing and crowds would be great! Yeah Ill take clippers all day long. If we can get the flow and moisture just right then we can see over a foot of snow from these type systems. The ski resorts need this also. This would really bring in the business especially after this past year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 The Euro looks good. Nice tough with lots of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just looked at the EPS and boy does it look cold. We have to get through another week of near or above average temps but then we go cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Looks like GSP is biting on the possibility for some snow next week. A snippet from the long range: Both models change over the precip to snow across the mtns after sunset Wednesday, but the operational GFS brings the wintry precip east of the Blue Ridge on Thursday because it holds onto the precip production longer. The ECMWF looks more "climatological" because it cuts off the precip east of the mtns before the cold air spills over, so that seems a more likely scenario. It is worth noting in the op GFS is among the coldest members of the 12Z GEFS and is the ensemble member with the most snow at AVL. Uncertainty always goes up when the forecast indicates a big pattern change. In the end, we are most confident in the possibility of some measurable snow over the NC mtns Wednesday night and Thursday, but have very little confidence in anything wintry east of the mtns on Thursday or Thursday night, and the fcst will reflect that. Either way, late next week looks like a shot of winter temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Hello everyone! Hope all of you had a great Spring Summer and Fall! Looking forward to this Winter, here’s to hoping for an improvement over the last several winters. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Last couple of model runs haven’t been quite as snowy for us in the mountains. At least the cold is still there. Hoping for something to sneak in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, westmc9th said: Last couple of model runs haven’t been quite as snowy for us in the mountains. At least the cold is still there. Hoping for something to sneak in! Yeah I'm not worried about the snow really. Just a shake up in the pattern is what I'm looking for. We are still very early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I'm not worried about the snow really. Just a shake up in the pattern is what I'm looking for. We are still very early in the season. My thoughts exactly. I mean, the 12z GFS yesterday was beautiful, but it's not like anyone thought that was going to be the end result. We will get our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Im gonna make another LR call for you pie in the sky , 3,000+ foot club posters. Btween 12/6-12/16 I feel highly confident at a minimum youll benefit from 2 seperate NWFS events. 1st one is tricky with pattern change ushering in 12/6. Also Im seeing a strong signal for a more region wide synoptic event during this time frame. You get the pac ridge like we are seeing forecasted and it usually is a major percusor to get waves, impulses albeit weak to try and overrun artic boundarys downstream (SE) think split flow. Love the pattern coming up and devils in details, but you boys should be getting stoked. Take advantage of the warm weekend and clean all those leaves out of your yard so they want being sticking up out of the snow in all those pics ya'll will be posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 ^ Yay, if i'm lucky I'll get an inch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Take advantage of the warm weekend and clean all those leaves out of your yard so they want being sticking up out of the snow in all those pics ya'll will be posting. Will do sir. The leaves are finally done dropping, but dang there's so many of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Phew, needed that Euro run. Was really starting to get nervous about what was coming. Now I can breathe for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 5 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: ^ Yay, if i'm lucky I'll get an inch lol. Thinking you'll get Clipper'd plus storm snow(s) in the next few weeks Ashe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 6 hours ago, CaryWx said: Thinking you'll get Clipper'd plus storm snow(s) in the next few weeks Ashe Clippers don't work out well for where I'm located in ashe. Need a storm to really cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 3 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Clippers don't work out well for where I'm located in ashe. Need a storm to really cash in. Meh I think we could see some surprises the next 2-3 weeks. Since I've only been here since '15 I have yet to see a "real" mountain winter so this upcoming pattern has me excited. Lots of NWF and clipper potential with the outside chance of a real storm, too. 12z EPS has 2.5" the next 15 days, which I'll gladly take and run with. 0z GFS is beautiful but.... it's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 7 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: Meh I think we could see some surprises the next 2-3 weeks. Since I've only been here since '15 I have yet to see a "real" mountain winter so this upcoming pattern has me excited. Lots of NWF and clipper potential with the outside chance of a real storm, too. 12z EPS has 2.5" the next 15 days, which I'll gladly take and run with. 0z GFS is beautiful but.... it's the GFS. I mean, considering how much variety there is in the models, I'm sure everyone will see something during the pattern. Might as well get a big one while were at it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Winter is coming. Be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 The euro brings the pain. Cannot wait to see some sustained cold weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Dang a beautiful run on the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Cold, cold and more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Wax up those skis boys and girls.... it's going to be prime-time on the slopes with the pattern that's being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Wax up those skis boys and girls.... it's going to be prime-time on the slopes with the pattern that's being modeled. Yep this is exactly what the ski slopes need at the perfect time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks like any snow will stay well to the east and south of us but I'll take a few chilly days. Been too warm for too long now. Cold is good but snow is much, much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Looks like any snow will stay well to the east and south of us but I'll take a few chilly days. Been too warm for too long now. Cold is good but snow is much, much better. Yep. Hate to see us waste this cold air. Even that seems to modulating some on recent model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 hours ago, SnoJoe said: Looks like any snow will stay well to the east and south of us but I'll take a few chilly days. Been too warm for too long now. Cold is good but snow is much, much better. 18z run says hold on there just a minute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 hours ago, SnoJoe said: Looks like any snow will stay well to the east and south of us but I'll take a few chilly days. Been too warm for too long now. Cold is good but snow is much, much better. I think you forgot about the infamous "Northwest trend". i'm sure we've got our fair share coming. Sincerely, the guy who didn't buy it two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 We will score with the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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