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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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11 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Webber posted on other board. I'm still on board with my prediction last week Joe and Met would have white ground next weekend.

Via Tomer Burg's website http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/, the 500 hPa anomalies in the base of the trough that will be centered over the Lakes this weekend may push into record territory for this time of the year. The lake effect snow in the wake of this trough will be nuts

Delayed but not denied as JB would say. Gonna have to kick my hunch toward middle part next week for the 3500 foot club.

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It is a cold, cold night at 4400' tonight...currently 29.4°.  I'm flying through the firewood so far this season.

  Feeling pretty good about seeing some flakes this weekend!

 

Edit: The 29° reading was at 1030... just checked the pws and the temp has climbed back up to 34.2.  

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I'm not completely sold on cold nor snow at this time. As you can see on the overnight runs the Euro looks a lot smoother than the GFS does and the GFS has been bouncing around a bit also.  I would lean towards the GFS because of them blocking being shown but there is always room for this to break down or set up in a crappy area for us. We still have several days left before we really know what will happen with the trough orientation. 

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3 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said:

We've gotten good at crapshoots over the last few years so we will be just fine.

 

Lol yeah. I hate to be an azz posting non positive stuff but it just seems like the past few years we have been burned badly. So until we are in the thick of things then I am just keeping it even kill. It is just November currently. 

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Lol yeah. I hate to be an azz posting non positive stuff but it just seems like the past few years we have been burned badly. So until we are in the thick of things then I am just keeping it even kill. It is just November currently. 

I get it and understand. Don't think you are the only one who thinks that way. Man I just wish winter would set in and now.

 

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KGSP wording for Saturday Night

SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT, WHILE   A MOIST NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN   HOURS ON SUNDAY. INGREDIENTS ARE SUCH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL   WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MAINLY ONLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS (ABOVE   4000', IF NOT 5000') ALONG THE TN BORDER. OTHERWISE, VERY GUSTY NW   WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE   VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AS MOUNTAIN WAVE SCENARIO UNFOLDS IN   RESPONSE TO STRONG/DEEPENING NW FLOW. IF ANYTHING, THE SETUP APPEARS   LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A   WIND ADVISORY-LEVEL EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE   A MENTION IN THE HWO.  

 

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3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

KGSP wording for Saturday Night

INGREDIENTS ARE SUCH THAT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL   WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MAINLY ONLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS (ABOVE   4000', IF NOT 5000') ALONG THE TN BORDER. 

 

This would be our third snowfall of the season.   I'm kinda concerned about that wind and power outages though.  

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High wind warning likely and:

BASED TEMP TRENDS TONIGHT ON HOURLY GUIDANCE GIVEN NEAR-STEADY   TRENDS AHEAD OF FRONT AND RAPID COOLING BEHIND IT. SO FINALLY,   I'LL NOTE THERE IS A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE THAT REMAINS BANKED   AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND THUS SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FCST   ALONG THE TENN BORDER. WINDS ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PART OF THE   SETUP, WITH NO INSTABILITY AND TEMPS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AT THE   TOP OF THE LAYER. HENCE I WENT WITH A 7:1 SLR, AND SNOW TOTALS   ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS PRODUCES NUMBERS NEAR THE 50TH   PERCENTILE ON WPC PROBABILISTIC SNOW PLOTS.  

 

134DQWy.jpg

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6 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I think a trip up to our Bald may be in order tomorrow morning.  Should be some serious wind at 5500'.  

 

Deceptively peaceful this morning, and 46° feels like spring.

Good idea 

I plan to be up the Overmountain Victory Trail up to Big Yellow Mountain

i treasure the peace and solitude year round but it is even more meaningful going into Advent every year.  

It is the source of my strength and keeps me rooted on my foundation

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On 11/13/2017 at 0:25 PM, NCSNOW said:

Webber posted on other board. I'm still on board with my prediction last week Joe and Met would have white ground next weekend.

Via Tomer Burg's website http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/, the 500 hPa anomalies in the base of the trough that will be centered over the Lakes this weekend may push into record territory for this time of the year. The lake effect snow in the wake of this trough will be nuts

Good call. I've got right at an inch and still have light snow. Temp is 28.4 with a 24 mph wind. Had a gust in the last hour to 41.

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35 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Good call. I've got right at an inch and still have light snow. Temp is 28.4 with a 24 mph wind. Had a gust in the last hour to 41.

Yes Sir! 

Your NWSF = my leaves getting blown out of the yard over the last two days. Thanks NW winds :)

However, some flakes would be nice down here. 

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Congrats on those who had snow yesterday. We had snow but nothing really laid on the ground. Its November so seasonable will be welcome. I really do not see huge bouts of cold but no real torch either so we will take it. It may be boring weather but 30 and 40s boring is a lot better than 70s and boring for this time of the year. 

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So some observations with today's runs so far. This weekend looks to get really cold but we are like 5 to 6 days away. There looks to be some upslope snow also for the Northern mountains primarily because the trough centered sucks for true NW upslope snow for everyone. Sure we may see some snow showers but it looks like this will be a NNW wind which favors the northern mountains. But we are like 6 days away so take it with a grain of salt. 

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