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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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5 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

Sounds good to me. I will take warm or above average temps in November any year. Maybe some cool weather around Thanksgiving then, hammer down as we approach the end of the year. 

Yeah I agree. I would take a warm November then have a cold December. We have not had a cold December in years...

 

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

A ski season would be nice starting in December. Agree Novie looks warm. Although the EPO is going negative, the NAO is completely AWOL if one wants cold. Get the shopping and holiday prep done while it is mild. Then hopefully we are skiing a lot more this year!

Completely agree! I would take a warm turkey day for a cold Christmas this year! Jeff did you see our snow pics from the weekend?

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The AO looks very good in the mid to long range but I remain very skeptical of these future values as we have seen this before only to get the rug pulled out from under us.To me you can see the NAO already wobbling a little more positive in the future indices. This is a huge caution light for me about REAL blocking setting up. The PNA looks like crap staying negative for a long period. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Lots of lightning and some heavy rain. This is man rain right here. Buckets!

I've only heard a single clap of thunder today,  but I've picked up 1.06" since 6am.  I'm gonna enjoy this mild day, looks like a cold second half of the week is on the way up here.  

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15 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

I've only heard a single clap of thunder today,  but I've picked up 1.06" since 6am.  I'm gonna enjoy this mild day, looks like a cold second half of the week is on the way up here.  

Yeah we have been getting racked down here. Thunder since about 9 this morning through current obs. Heavy heavy rain also. Closing in on over 2 inches. Yeah it looks like starting tomorrow out highs go from 70 to 49 and rain. Then our nightly lows drop thursday morning.

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No thunder but I did get 1.46 of rain. Things are pretty sloppy around here. Not normal to see all the rivers and creeks running so high this time of year. All the leaves on the ground are turning into a brown stew. If we get some sustained cold, the ground will freeze and lock up worst than my ex wife.  How about sunny with highs around 50 with lows in the mid-twenties for a week or two.

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Finally feels like fall again.  Current temp of 49 degrees and not really suppose to budge much.

Yeah,  quite a difference from yesterday.  47 and in the clouds here.  The deer seem to love it,  I have about a dozen playing in my backyard. 

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Thanksgiving blocking VencorWeather mentions is showing up on most models and ensembles. No guarantee it lasts for weeks, but it seems legit for Thanksgiving and the end of the month.

Separately, this winter should be better than last. Could be warm air trouble for synoptic systems. However NWFS events should be better in the wake of cold fronts. 

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Hey fellas...I hope everyone had a nice summer. I know working in a furniture plant (Ethan Allen) it was not as hot as last summer here in old fort. The summer of 16 was brutal!!! But anyway i look forward to late night euro runs, fantasy snowstorms, snow and good conversation! Its most definitely my favorite time of year!

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Im gonna go ahead and call it. Its gonna be white next weekend for alot of you folks. Im expecting to see alot of LES and NWFS with the vodka cold coming down next weekend. See how it sets up as we roll forward. So much easier to see this type potential as oppossed to a synoptic event. You can see 500mb forecast and  whats being progged on every model, espeacilly Euro. Throw in unfrozen lakes etc and you  get a pretty good idea that the potential is gonna be pretty high with this type of set up.

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The overnight runs say come back to reality not looking that great at all. Sure we will get cool downs but nothing out of The ordinary.  Most of the troughs pulled back further north.

You got to set the table before you can sit down and eat/feast. LR pattern coming up as we head toward turkey day and the DEC 1st K/O to met winter is the bargain of the century espeacilly in light of what alot of folks,self included thought we'd be seeing unfold D/J/F. Now it can go to the crapper no doubt, but everyone should be encouraged opptomistic on whats being forecasted by the models to happen at 5H. i still say next weekend your back yard and joe espeacilly, will get the ground white. 8-10 days out so well see. Good news is the train is heading down the right track for a change.

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11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You got to set the table before you can sit down and eat/feast. LR pattern coming up as we head toward turkey day and the DEC 1st K/O to met winter is the bargain of the century espeacilly in light of what alot of folks,self included thought we'd be seeing unfold D/J/F. Now it can go to the crapper no doubt, but everyone should be encouraged opptomistic on whats being forecasted by the models to happen at 5H. i still say next weekend your back yard and joe espeacilly, will get the ground white. 8-10 days out so well see. Good news is the train is heading down the right track for a change.

Oh yeah I agree. The blocking that looks to take place is still there. I do think we will see a nice pattern around thanksgiving but no sooner. It will take some time to step down with the way things are currently. Good outlook. 

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Webber posted on other board. I'm still on board with my prediction last week Joe and Met would have white ground next weekend.

Via Tomer Burg's website http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tburg/, the 500 hPa anomalies in the base of the trough that will be centered over the Lakes this weekend may push into record territory for this time of the year. The lake effect snow in the wake of this trough will be nuts

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