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2017 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread


Tyler Penland

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35 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Lol yeah it's been very cool. Did we average below normal for August? I mean our average high is in the mid to upper 70s still. We have been stuck in the 50s and 60s for several days.

Seems like we skipped august.  August felt more like sept and sept so far as been more like oct.

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13 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

Not looking super-warm over the next 10 days but definitely not the cold we saw last week. Euro/EPS are low/mid-70s for highs and mid/upper-50's for lows. Not bad at all for September. I'll definitely take it ha.

I agree. Looking at the 850s even with the huge ridge over use I think we look to average about normal and pretty boring weather which in September is the norm. 

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8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Euro and the GFS are pretty far off on the 7-10 day range. Euro has a big deep trough that comes into the East but the GFS is not so gun ho. The Euro has not been good at this long lead time for troughs for us. I expect this trough to relax a lot and look like the GFS soon. I hope I am wrong.

EPS has been fairly rock-solid and it's cooling us off quite a bit starting next Thursday. Been showing that since it came within range. 

Fantasy land 18z GFS is a thing of beauty. 

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11 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

EPS has been fairly rock-solid and it's cooling us off quite a bit starting next Thursday. Been showing that since it came within range. 

Fantasy land 18z GFS is a thing of beauty. 

We cool down but as you see the euro has gone the way of the gods. The euro really has been over amplifying storms and troughs in the 6 to 10 day period over the last year. It may have nailed the track of Irma in long range but it struggles here in the states at that range.

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3 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Considering it's good news, we won't hold it against you. :D

I still don't like the guidance overnight on the trough though.  The Euro has basically went away from a deep trough at all. This is a huge problem with the euro. It keeps doing this with so called big troughs and storms. Over amplification is a big issue in that 6 to 10 day frame. Shoot iv even seen it lift a trough out 4 days out. 

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I just noticed that the house I rented for a year when I was doing my grad work at ASU is for sale. It sits right at 4000 feet with 360 views.  At the time I rented it, 79-80, it was the only house on the mountain. I could have bought it back then for 99K. :(

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/pmf,pf_pt/102359905_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.174673,-81.636783,36.173246,-81.63909_rect/18_zm/

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20 hours ago, jburns said:

I just noticed that the house I rented for a year when I was doing my grad work at ASU is for sale. It sits right at 4000 feet with 360 views.  At the time I rented it, 79-80, it was the only house on the mountain. I could have bought it back then for 99K. :(

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/pmf,pf_pt/102359905_zpid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.174673,-81.636783,36.173246,-81.63909_rect/18_zm/

Damn. That's how it is up here.  Freaking ridiculous. 

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High pressure for days. A huge dip in the PNA. This looks to continue for a good bit through early fall at least. So much for the cool down which will be very brief. 

I'll take a negative PNA all fall if it pops during the winter. Not getting my hopes up, though.
This cool snap should get the rest of the leaves going at least. Was very disappointed in how things looked around Mitchell/graveyard the last couple days.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk

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On 9/27/2017 at 11:44 AM, Tyler Penland said:

I'll take a negative PNA all fall if it pops during the winter. Not getting my hopes up, though.
This cool snap should get the rest of the leaves going at least. Was very disappointed in how things looked around Mitchell/graveyard the last couple days.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk
 

Yeah better to have this setup currently when it does not really matter. I'll enjoy the cool down and go from there.

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First low of the 30s for the season. 39 degrees. Really not bad for October 1st standards. The next few days look very pleasant. The extended range is just one big high pressure in the SE. Just relentless. Really I do not think this will change through the first half of the month. The West coast will be slammed with storms on a regular basis. 

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