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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Up by Tampa, shear will become a hindrance on Irma and weaken it, which is reflected in the NHC projection, but beforehand it won't do too much. Strong hurricanes can also fight it off for a while. By the time it gets to near Tampa it will be way too late to weaken it meaningfully enough. Look how much Katrina weakened before landfall and how catastrophic it still was. 

Full landfall with a weakening storm, though, would definitely be less damaging than if it's strengthening. Worst case scenario with Irma would have almost certainly been a direct hit on the Miami metro with a strengthening Cat 4 or Cat 5. Thankfully, everything now points to that being avoided.

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3 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Well they've rebuilt after major canes before, but this was a devastating blow. They'll recover, eventually, like Grenada did after Ivan.

Have 2 friends that live on St. Martin, still haven't heard anything from them. From what I hear that island will take a decade to be rebuilt. 

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4 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Full landfall with a weakening storm, though, would definitely be less damaging than if it's strengthening. Worst case scenario with Irma would have almost certainly been a direct hit on the Miami metro with a strengthening Cat 4 or Cat 5. Thankfully, everything now points to that being avoided.

True, but a strengthening cat 4/5 landfalling in Tampa is perhaps only marginally less devastating.

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3 minutes ago, tacoman25 said:

Full landfall with a weakening storm, though, would definitely be less damaging than if it's strengthening. Worst case scenario with Irma would have almost certainly been a direct hit on the Miami metro with a strengthening Cat 4 or Cat 5. Thankfully, everything now points to that being avoided.

Miami scenario was avoided, but Tampa is arguably more vulnerable and less prepared overall.  Less people, but still.  They don't have any recent experience with major hurricanes.  

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4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

True, but a strengthening cat 4/5 landfalling in Tampa is perhaps only marginally less devastating.

The shear may prevent a landfall that strong, though. Looks like it depends on how far north Irma gets before turning inland.

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Just now, tacoman25 said:

The shear may prevent a landfall that strong, though. Looks like it depends on how far north Irma gets before turning inland.

It may. We'll just have to see. Matthew certainly shrugged off comparable shear, but each storm is different. Only thing hampering intensification right now is internal structure. That external consideration doesn't come into play until sometime tomorrow, as I understand. If that IEW does dissipate, it's all systems go.

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Have 2 friends that live on St. Martin, still haven't heard anything from them. From what I hear that island will take a decade to be rebuilt. 

Irma has created implications for the cruise lines that already have their itineraries in place for upcoming trips.  Many of them stop in St. Martin and St. Thomas, both of which have been devastated.

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ZCZC MIATCUAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1000 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WIND GUSTS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key recently reported
sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph
(100 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph
(80 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 81.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Onderlinde

NNNN

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Just now, AcePuppy said:

winds back down again.

10:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 9
Location: 23.5°N 81.0°W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 933 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

That is odd. Almost makes it look like the last advisory was wrong?

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I've lived in South Florida and now in St. Petersburg.  The Tampa Bay area is VERY unprepared for a major hurricane compared to South Florida.  There is a general better awareness of hurricanes, more urgency with preparations, and a lot more of the housing stock has hurricane shutters, impact resistant windows etc in South Florida.  Look at the massive lines for gas and supplies in south florida compared to Tampa Bay.  Today when I left St. Pete I could still buy gas or any groceries I wanted.  That's with us right in the middle of the cone!

Yesterday as I spent 15 straight hours boarding every window of my house, my neighbors stood by and chatted.  As far as I could see, I'm the only home on my street that was boarded up.  In South Florida, that's unheard of.  Everyone I know in South Florida has shutters or impact windows or plywood.  No one over here has experienced an Andrew, so they don't know.

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3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah a 1 hr update for a 5mph bump seems silly, must have been an error last update.

I think it is going to waiver as it organizes. Cloud tops cooling. I think we will see it strengthen overnight the more it gets away from Cuba

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5 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah a 1 hr update for a 5mph bump seems silly, must have been an error last update.

NHC put out a statement earlier that they would be releasing updates every hour, regardless of changes to help better inform people

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