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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

No contact with Mike Theiss and Reed Timmer for about 12 hours. Probably due to bad cell reception, hope nothing bad occurred.

I have friends in Miami who managed to get out a few text messages - no power and no voice cellular, and intermittent text ability in Miami area.
I'm sure the same holds true for much of southern Florida

 

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4 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Great 48 hr GOES16 loop. Really highlights where she ingested air over Cuba, and how close she came to really reintensifying. 

 

Looks like the Keys, which are normally just a small roadbump for a major storm, interrupted the re-intensification process at a critical time.

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5 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Great 48 hr GOES16 loop. Really highlights where she ingested air over Cuba, and how close she came to really reintensifying. 

 

That loop also shows that the ingested air never made it to the core, thus keeping it a major hurricane throughout despite the weakening.

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i keep seeing the cone from the nws trend northwest but Irma keeps going north, this turb seemingly should have happened hours ago. What is keeping Irma from turning and do yall think she finally starts turning at some point? thanks 

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49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another tell-tale sign to be leery of major intensification is a CDO that is comprised of banded, striated colder tops....not a solid shield.

Irma had that look when it got near Cuba....I like to see a solid envelop of -70-80c tops.

Maybe someone mentioned it and I missed it, but what about the sheer size of the circulation? Much harder to get a large system to ramp up rapidly as opposed to a small one.

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18 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

i keep seeing the cone from the nws trend northwest but Irma keeps going north, this turb seemingly should have happened hours ago. What is keeping Irma from turning and do yall think she finally starts turning at some point? thanks 

I could be way off here, but I feel like it has to do with the trough still pushing in from the northwest. Looking at the WV imagery, you can still see the southern movement from that piece. Could the constant push from that trough be keeping it from going NW? Maybe

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4 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Absolutely terrible to hear. Is this the first official death within the US from Irma?

Guy fell off his house in Tampa putting up shutters and died yesterday.

 

Two cops in Henry Co. hit each other in their patrol cars today and both died.

Likely people died in Keys...they took a hard hit.

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Amazing how far the affects of this system have reached. This was posted by Spann a bit ago. It's not in south Florida, its water being pushed out of Mobile bay!

ffb05a9175016ea690c66872e8e0291e.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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9 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

May finish with a top 10 costliest hurricane in US history when all is set and done regardless of worse case scenarios. 

 

10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

May finish with a top 10 costliest hurricane in US history when all is set and done regardless of worse case scenarios. 

Yeah, we won't know until next week but there will be damage the entire latitudinal length of Florida. 

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5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Maybe someone mentioned it and I missed it, but what about the sheer size of the circulation? Much harder to get a large system to ramp up rapidly as opposed to a small one.

Yeah it requires a much higher increase in Kinetic energy.  That being said Irma did strengthen some, and wasn't looking too shabby at landfall.  She just didn't make it back to the 160kt ADT7.4 beast she was.     Any other year a CAT4/3 landfall would have been impressive. Think Irma disappointed just look at Irene.

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4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Impact in north central and northeast FL could be as or worse than Matthew. Still not over yet folks.

amazing how at least so far despite it coming up the west coast the east coast has gotten much worse conditions. i know im in for a long night but it hasnt been much of anything yet here although rain and wind starting to pick up a little. huge swing in what people expected and prepared for from coast to coast

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Just now, Keysfins said:

Not sure if there were any deaths in the USVI? There was another death in Marathon; a person died of natural causes at the Marathon High School which served as a shelter. 

 

http://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article172399102.html

Poor terminology, Hurricanes do sound like natural causes even though they mean "unrelated medical condition"

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 I'm pretty sure Orlando and Melbourne are getting much more than they bargained for with Irma.   Melbourne has been getting hammered by those bands pivoting in off the East Coast and Orlando has been recording TS gusts for hours.  

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Predecessor Rain Event well underway below 300mb jet streak in the right entrance region which is co-located with Irma's outflow. This storm is only just beginning for Georgia. FL dodged the absolute worst case scenario, but this storm's impacts are far from over.

Radar: https://weather.us/radar-us/georgia/reflectivity-composite/KJGX.html#play  

Satellite: https://weather.us/satellite/902-w-263-n/satellit-water-vapor-superhd-15min.html#play 

ECMWF 300mb winds: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa-east/wind-300mb/20170911-0000z.html 

us_radarus-en-087-0_2017_09_11_508_KJGX_360_0018.png

us_sat-en-087-0_2017_09_10_23_45_15843_487.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017091012_12_35_449.png

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Is the explanation for the terrifying-looking power outage map really mostly "wind"? That's one thing starting to worry me, particularly in SoFla. (Worried in the sense of looting/violence etc. Source: grew up in SoFla.)

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Orlando has had gusts over 75 mph on 2 consecutive hourly obs.

Yeah, they may see gusts of 90 mph or better tonight.  There will be many towns in Florida w/o power well into the week. 

The winds away from the center have been the most impressive thing to me for the US landfall part of the storm.   So much of Florida feeling hurricane gusts.  Yes, of course we can listen to the "it could of been worse",  "dodged a bullet" posts but I have been more than impressed with Irma.  Certain areas dodged a bullet but many got sprayed with buckshot which is still pretty painful. 

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FPR/PBI/OPF still with insane gusts.  Likely the unstable nature of the bottom layer in that SE quadrant continues to effectively mix winds of 65-75mph down to the surface

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Would certainly like a bit more complete of a survey of the state of things in Miami, FLL, Hollywood, West Palm, the Space Coast, the Keys, Everglades City, Marco Island, and Naples and its eastern environs before I judge Irma's performance. (and all the points north that are only starting to get hit)

I was watching Miami ABC and a reporter was in a completely dark neighborhood in Hollywood with at least 2 feet of water in the street. We just have little idea yet of the scope of things away from the CNN/MSNBC/TWC/Fox cameras and selected social media offerings.

 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

FPR/PBI/OPF still with insane gusts.  Likely the unstable nature of the bottom layer in that SE quadrant continues to effectively mix winds of 65-75mph down to the surface

The spread of TS/Hurricane gusts has been amazing.   Today was an incredible weather weenie day if you ignored all the debate about strength etc. and just watched the radar, official obs and live feeds.  Huge storm that most of Florida won't forget! 

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