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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

2,886 posts in this topic

earth12z.jpg

Running up the right side of the 12z guidance.  Extrapolating that puts it right over downtown Ft. Myers.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thank you.

Pressure up a bit , but system essentially stable

The radar presentation looks about as impressive/unimpressive now as 2 hours ago.  There is a little more dBZs but more open eyewall too.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the thing. Those extreme 60DBZ+ values will mix down all she has. Good luck to those in that path.  Despite the half moon structure on radar, that feature remains impressive to me.

The high ZDR at >5 kft indicates a pretty strong updraft capable of lofting big rain drops. If you look at the higher tilts, that enhanced ZDR is still present just above the melting layer so in some ways it is similar to a ZDR column in a severe thunderstorm. KDP is also enhanced there as well.

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8 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

I remember when Rita came ashore in Texas, the remaining half of the eye wall brought some good winds inland.

that's a great point.  rita was structurally very similar and we all know what a disaster that was.

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1 minute ago, heavy_wx said:

The high ZDR at >5 kft indicates a pretty strong updraft capable of lofting big rain drops. If you look at the higher tilts, that enhanced ZDR is still present just above the melting layer so in some ways it is similar to a ZDR column in a severe thunderstorm. KDP is also enhanced there as well.

There does look to be some sort of mesoscale convergence in that spot since pre dawn. 

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Looks to me like it's moving a bit more west than it has been today.  May be wobbling, but any change in angle has big implications.

earth-track.jpg

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3 minutes ago, heavy_wx said:

The high ZDR at >5 kft indicates a pretty strong updraft capable of lofting big rain drops. If you look at the higher tilts, that enhanced ZDR is still present just above the melting layer so in some ways it is similar to a ZDR column in a severe thunderstorm. KDP is also enhanced there as well.

Valuable input, thank you.

For those downplaying Irma, some beachfront community(ies) are getting or are soon to get major inundation.

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