wasnow215 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Question for mets or "experts": (and if it's been asked and answered already forgive me) I read on here the last 24 hours a couple of times, that if the eye were to pass east of Tampa Bay it would be better for them. With her current movement, it does not look like Irma's eye will pass east of Tampa Bay -correct? Which means this could be even more devastating for them? Sorry im editing now. Or was it West would be worse? Ugh- I can't remember which one it was. But you know my point.. is this current track worse or better for Tampa Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 For the record, can someone explain to me why the surge is not going to exceed 9 feet in Tampa Bay if the eastern eyewall funnels the water up into the bay? I remain quite concerned about this if we get another NW wobble otlr two. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The current reading from the Key West tide gauge is 4.36, which according to the top of the page is higher than the station record of 3.13 set during Wilma. That doesn't sound right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, mempho said: For the record, can someone explain to me why the surge is not going to exceed 9 feet in Tampa Bay if the eastern eyewall funnels the water up into the bay? I remain quite concerned about this if we get another NW wobble otlr two. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk I'm not sure how the surge will be as it looks to go east of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Question for mets or "experts": (and if it's been asked and answered already forgive me) I read on here the last 24 hours a couple of times, that if the eye were to pass east of Tampa Bay it would be better for them. With her current movement, it does not look like Irma's eye will pass east of Tampa Bay -correct? Which means this could be even more devastating for them? Still too early to say specifically for Tampa Bay-wobbles here and there will keep occurring. But they'd want the eye to go east of the bay, which would keep the high surge out of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 That band from Naples back to the Upper Keys certainly as hurricane Force gusts with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Any reports out of homestead/florida city? I think there would already be considerable flooding from Biscayne bay there considering the <5 ft ASL elevation... The Homestead Air Reserve Base is especially at risk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Still too early to say specifically for Tampa Bay-wobbles here and there will keep occurring. But they'd want the eye to go east of the bay, which would keep the high surge out of the bay. Thank you! Hopefully it does go East of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, mempho said: Don't they need to be prepared for an outcome that doesn't go east, though? I mean, Tampa Bay is in the cone? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk They already did since models were closer to landfall there. But you asked why isn't the surge higher, and it's probably because it won't be approaching from an optimum angle to maximize surge. At least that's how it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, mempho said: Don't they need to be prepared for an outcome that doesn't go east, though? I mean, Tampa Bay is in the cone? Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk If they aren't prepared now, then they aren't going to be. Its going to be a close call...could easily wobble west of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 WPBF showed a live waterspout around 30 min ago. Note that it's necessary to reload this window after pausing to keep the feed live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not sure how the surge will be as it looks to go east of Tampa. Warning product still has 5-8 feet, which was based on a west eye passage. The GFS and other east passage solutions likely mitigate the surge a bit, but as Irma departs the fetch comes onshore and builds right through high tide Monday morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit higher surge if the track goes West, but it won't be on the extreme end of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Perplexed. The southern eyewall has been open for some time now per radar. I'd never had thought the radar presentation would be such by looking at various satellite products. Even water vapor which clearly shows the dry air the storm is ingesting doesn't show radar and recon reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Extreme wind warning for Naples area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Tornado reported Port st lucie west 3 miles from my location l 1 tree down already in yard . see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 000 WFUS52 KMFL 101625 EWWMFL FLC021-101930- /O.NEW.KMFL.EW.W.0001.170910T1625Z-170910T1930Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Extreme Wind Warning National Weather Service Miami FL 1225 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017 The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a * Extreme Wind Warning for... Southwestern Collier County in southwestern Florida... * Until 330 PM EDT * At 1223 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated extreme winds above 115 mph, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Irma, were approaching the coast 10 miles south of Everglades City, moving north at 15 mph. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation! * Locations impacted include... Naples, Marco Island, Chokoloskee, Golden Gate Estates and Everglades City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. && LAT...LON 2633 8184 2633 8182 2632 8182 2632 8140 2577 8127 2573 8134 2575 8141 2579 8144 2577 8153 2581 8161 2577 8167 2581 8175 2599 8184 TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 167DEG 11KT 2556 8160 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Isnt that why the two pics are collocated? Possibly, but they will do that for any storm-like sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Ton of lightning in the eyewall once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Crazy video out of Naples right now. Getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Superstorm93 said: Ton of lightning in the eyewall once again Seems like strengthening is occurring with DBZ on the increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Any reports out of homestead/florida city? I think there would already be considerable flooding from Biscayne bay there considering the <5 ft ASL elevation... The Homestead Air Reserve Base is especially at risk... This is the closest working gauge to that area. Seems like our area has a much more extensive tide gauge network as they are further apart down there. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8723214 http://www.weather.gov/tbw/tampabaymarineweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Perplexed. The southern eyewall has been open for some time now per radar. I'd never had thought the radar presentation would be such by looking at various satellite products. Even water vapor which clearly shows the dry air the storm is ingesting doesn't show radar and recon reality. Don't know how true it is, but I was watching a live feed out of Miami, and the meteorologist said that the Key West radar site is down, so perhaps it's not as open as it appears? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Voyager said: Don't know how true it is, but I was watching a live feed out of Miami, and the meteorologist said that the Key West radar site is down, so perhaps it's not as open as it appears? Heard that too but even standard NWS radar has presented that way since early this AM for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Talk about live media and chasers streams need to go here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Ton of lightning in the eyewall once again Large band of convection moving up into the Orlando area now (currently in Melbourne) - https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=27.1194;x=-81.4862;z=7;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;ra=1; These bands have been spawning tornadoes in the Port Lucie area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Don't know how true it is, but I was watching a live feed out of Miami, and the meteorologist said that the Key West radar site is down, so perhaps it's not as open as it appears? I was just able to view KBYX's feed from Radarscope, so I think it's still alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Tops are quite tall within that northern eyewall with some high dbz values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Key West radar is fine and still working. Multiple ASOS reports last hour of gusts near/above hurricane force in SE FL last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Question for mets or "experts": (and if it's been asked and answered already forgive me) I read on here the last 24 hours a couple of times, that if the eye were to pass east of Tampa Bay it would be better for them. With her current movement, it does not look like Irma's eye will pass east of Tampa Bay -correct? Which means this could be even more devastating for them? Sorry im editing now. Or was it West would be worse? Ugh- I can't remember which one it was. But you know my point.. is this current track worse or better for Tampa Bay? East would be better but based on the 0z euro, and current radar trends, I believe it will pass west of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Tops are quite tall within that northern eyewall with some high dbz values A bit perplexed right now. Pretty impressive increase of lightning there. Are we going to see a small additional period of intensification? Not ideal timing considering it's a few hours from Naples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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