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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How would the surge projection for Tampa change with the center going just west instead of over/east?  I saw that simulation that had 25+ feet of water with a cat 5 moving NNE, but this isn't quite that scenario. 

The real surge wouldn't be until the eye is past and the wind turns westerly, but it would probably be 10ft or more when that happens. It goes right into the bay which focuses the surge and the land around Tampa is very flat. The eye might go over St. Pete which would be devastating. 

The absolute worst Tampa case is a NE moving storm going north of the bay, which would drive the surge NE into the bay, but this scenario with Irma is bad too. 

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3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The next 18 hours should be bombs away....I think Irma gains 20mph and falls 30mb+ before landfall.

The next 18-24 hours will also largely define our memories of this storm - she's sure been an amazing storm to track!

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Just want to say that ERC's are a bit of uncharted territory in tropical system meteorology, even the best mets don't know exactly when it'll begin or wrap up (just remember the previous ERC and the really long discussion that ensued) 

I see a lot of people speculating about it and I think that it doesn't contribute to the discussion and confuses people that are trying to learn (like me), or just trying to get correct info

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4 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

Just want to say that ERC's are a bit of uncharted territory in tropical system meteorology, even the best mets don't know exactly when it'll begin or wrap up (just remember the previous ERC and the really long discussion that ensued) 

I see a lot of people speculating about it and I think that it doesn't contribute to the discussion and confuses people that are trying to learn (like me), or just trying to get correct info

Nice thing is that we might learn more about ERCs from Irma than any previous storm, just because of how well it has been covered by modern radar through the process.

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16 minutes ago, danstorm said:

The next 18-24 hours will also largely define our memories of this storm - she's sure been an amazing storm to track!

If it didn't hit the US, it'd certainly be retired for its effects on the Leeward Islands though. Those were definitely historic as well.

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4 minutes ago, Rickg2 said:

quick question: didn't Charley strengthen rapidly as it came up the coast? I seem to remember  it going from a cat 2 to a cat for in one 6 hour period.

Yes and it was blowing up going onshore man any more time over water Charlie could had been a 5 went from a Cat 1 to 4 in no time.  

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3 minutes ago, Rickg2 said:

quick question: didn't Charley strengthen rapidly as it came up the coast? I seem to remember  it going from a cat 2 to a cat for in one 6 hour period.

It did. It went from 95 mph to 125 mph in 6 hrs. Made it up to 130 mph at landfall. Also dropped almost 30 mb in that time period

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Just now, andyhb said:

If it didn't hit the US, it'd certainly be retired for its effects on the Leeward Islands though. Those were definitely historic as well.

Absolutely - I mean, what happens now to an island like St. Martin? 

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4 minutes ago, danstorm said:

Absolutely - I mean, what happens now to an island like St. Martin? 

Well they've rebuilt after major canes before, but this was a devastating blow. They'll recover, eventually, like Grenada did after Ivan.

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