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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

  I will be pretty impressed to watch this storm run the length of Florida and still get a hurricane gusts into Atlanta.

That was my first thought wondering if it would still be hurricane strength all the way into southern Georgia... ALTHOUGH the cone offers the potential for Irma to scoot just off the coast and go straight up to the panhandle, and in that case, you would definitely have hurricane force winds if it came in that way.

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20 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Pretty significant pressure drop over the last few hours, the winds haven't responded yet but should start to increase as the evening progresses.

I think they'll struggle to respond until we sort out that IEW. Until then pressure may continue to steadily fall, but currently thinking winds will wait to respond.

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10 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

That track is terrible for the entire West coast of Florida, just rakes them with the RFQ/Core with the center just offshore/just inland.

It's going to suck.  IMO the worst case scenario at a state/national level will be avoided with MIA/Dade/Broward and then up to GA/SC not getting crushed by those various runs from a few days ago.  Looking for bright spots where possible.  Still could see some east wobble for the track and a bit less of a disaster, but the window is shrinking.

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9 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

It's going to suck.  IMO the worst case scenario at a state/national level will be avoided with MIA/Dade/Broward and then up to GA/SC not getting crushed by those various runs from a few days ago.  Looking for bright spots where possible.  Still could see some east wobble for the track and a bit less of a disaster, but the window is shrinking.

Having the right eyewall of a likely strong cat 4 rake the entire west coast of FL and some heavily populated areas from Tampa south is a pretty close second to the Miami area landfall. The surge is also more devastating on the west FL coast. If the eye really does go over Tampa Bay, the surge coming in behind it with SW wind will be terrible. The best case at this point would be a sharper north turn that brings it onshore a little east of those cities, but that's looking less and less likely. And the E FL impact will not be negligible-those are some strong bands east of the center that will bring tornadoes and 80-90 mph gusts, along with 10"+ of rain. 

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My guess is a direct hit on Key West 05z at which time 918 mbs 140 mph, then dropping to 910 mbs west of Naples around 13z, landfall near Port Charlotte 18z. cat 4 and possibly cat 5 briefly offshore.

Too close to call for max impact Tampa Bay, would assume the worst and hope for a last minute inland push, track will only take the core inland 5-10 miles by Sarasota and that means eyewall over Tampa Bay. 

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27 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Pretty healthy looking storm after being over land for 15 hours.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't believe it ever made true landfall outside barrier islands.  It certainly was impacted by the coastal brush, but it always had some part of its eye over water throughout the journey.

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While we did avoid a worst case scenario for Miami-Fort Lauderdale, let's not forget that the west coast of Florida is heavily populated, well over 4m people within 70 miles of the coast from the Everglades up to Spring Hill, north of Tampa.

Cape Coral - Fort Myers MSA: 722,336 people  [this includes down to naples]

Tampa - St Petersburg: 3,032,171 people [includes the coast and clearwater]

Polk County (Lakeland and environs): 666,149

from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Metropolitan_Statistical_Areas

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