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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Other papers have actually argued that the outflow of the inner eye wall is what forces a secondary eye wall also.

Could definitely be a kind of "chicken or egg" effect.

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Watching that radar loop she's really heading NW now, pulling away from Cuba and taking aim on Key West.

Regarding the above, she's expanded since the Lesser Antilles, no? Still not threatening Sandy or Igor territory in that regard.

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I think once irma gets far enough away from the coast the otter eye will take over. Irma is too large of a storm to sustain a pinhole eye.

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32 minutes ago, salbers said:

Movement on satellite over past 4 hours looks like about 300 degree heading. Would aim about to Key West unless the turning continues.

 

 

6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Watching that radar loop she's really heading NW now, pulling away from Cuba and taking aim on Key West.

 

Been checking movement on radar since salbers post and it has stayed right on the same course since. 

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7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said:

In 3 hours: T#

 

2017SEP09 161536  5.1
2017SEP09 191535  5.7

 

Color me impressed. 

Up to 5.8 now:

 

         ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  09 SEP 2017    Time :   191500 UTC
      Lat :   23:11:09 N     Lon :   80:16:16 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.9     5.9
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Based on my research of past hurricanes, and barring a pretty significant last minute shift, Irma is likely to produce the worst hurricane conditions that the Tampa area has experienced at least since Donna in 1960, and possibly before.  This would be with a relatively steady storm or modest restrengthening prior to landfall, let alone more significant restrengthening.  Given the population growth over the years, there is a very high probability of this becoming a benchmark storm in terms of wind and/or surge damage.

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26 minutes ago, andyhb said:

This would be good news for FL.

It's likely gets back to 140mph but I would be surprised at this point if it went beyond that.  In the end the NHC forecast from 4 or so days ago will be close on landfall strength in Florida when they showed 125-135 or so coming into Miami 

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46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

FWIW, historic climatology favors a strong landfalling hurricane in southwest Florida. Coupled with Irma's current strength, the Florida Straits' ideal waters for intensification, and the modeled deepening, I believe that Irma will very likely be a Category 4 storm (145 mph maximum sustained winds) at landfall.

Since 1851, 10/13 (76%) of August/September hurricanes that passed within 65 nautical miles of Irma's 2 pm position made Florida landfall. 7/10 (70%) made landfall in southwestern Florida, 20% on the Panhandle, and 10% in southeastern Florida. Of those that made landfall in southwestern Florida, 2 were Category 4 storms and 1 was a Category 5 storm. On the weaker side, 3 were Category 1 storms and 1 was a Category 2 storm. Irma is currently a strong Category 3 storm. The SSTs and modeling all argue for strengthening. The radar presentation has also improved from this morning and the central pressure has dropped a little. If the GFS is right, explosive deepening should take place starting tonight.

Great info don. I was looking over the storm track of Charley in 2004. It moved from south to north over Cuba as a cat 2-3 went down to a cat 2 after Cuba and went to a cat 4 at landfall near Punta Gorda. Those warm SST's can do some rapid healing and with little to no shear it is very possible for Irma.

also, Charley was moving at 25mph.

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000
URNT12 KWBC 092020
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  AL112017
A. 09/20:06:42Z
B. 23 deg 13 min N
  080 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2543 m
D. 94 kt
E. 359 deg 16 nm
F. 084 deg 99 kt
G. 359 deg 22 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 12 C / 3060 m
J. 19 C / 3065 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-30
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. NOAA2 2711A IRMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 359 / 22 NM 20:01:26Z
SEC MAX FL WIND 85 KT; BRNG:360 deg RNG:65 nm
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 225 / 25 KTS

 

Sfc wind was 25kt, so 933/934mb is probably the most reasonable, pretty close to extrap.

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Extrapolated pressure down another 4mb. Looks like a stronger outer wind max may be showing up on FL winds. Expect winds to slowly increase as the inner core reorganizes. 

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Dropsonde pressure is almost always 2-4 mb higher than the extrap pressure, but the extrap pressure is down 4 mb compared to the last recon pass.  That's a pretty good drop in that short distance between passes.

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Pretty pronounced double wind max on that FL wind trace. May see the IEW spin back up pretty quick before getting halted by steadily strengthening OEW. Wouldn't shock me to see this ERC take a while.

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16 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said:

Up to 5.8 now:

 

         ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  09 SEP 2017    Time :   191500 UTC
      Lat :   23:11:09 N     Lon :   80:16:16 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.9     5.9

Eduction moment - please help me out with what a T# is. This is a new term for me.

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It doesn't have to strengthen much to be a strong Cat 4 again. Another 10-15mb drop and 20 mph wind increase brings it to 145mph. It's certainly doable in time it has left. It's not coming back from a Cat 1-2. 

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Broad wind field (less impressive pressure gradient) may make it difficult to achieve the high end 4 wind speed wise again, but that's not going to matter much when it comes to the surge potential.

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16 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said:

Up to 5.8 now:

 

         ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  09 SEP 2017    Time :   191500 UTC
      Lat :   23:11:09 N     Lon :   80:16:16 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.8     5.9     5.9

Eduction moment - please help me out with what a T# is. This is a new term for me.

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