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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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Movement away from the Cuban coast is very slow so far but the northward expansion of the CDO is explosive.

I wonder if the NNE expansion hints at at shift very slight toward the right for the next few hours.

 

cdo.jpg

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9 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Amazing how well it is coast-following. There's still enough of a westward/southward steering component left to keep it close to the coast once the torque component weakens. This behavior should end once it rounds the bend near La Teja.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband14&type=Animation&numframes=50&zoom=1&quality=100&palette=ir6.pal&width=1400&height=1000&lat=32.0&lon=-87.0

It almost looks like it bounced off of mainland Cuba, like it was trying to avoid landfall.  I remember the something similar with Ivan and Jamaica in 2004.

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You can see on IR and radar the large feeder band from the south that was obstructed by the mountains last night looks to be flowing freely across cuba now.

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Not sure if this was posted yet...

Direct TV 's  Severe Weather Channel is now active with local coverage from FL

on my Direct TV the channel is 361-1 &  361-2

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But that's only 46mb above the (likely over-zealously modeled) 896 core. Basically accurate for the top floors of taller skyscrapers near the core. Tampa has many. The NHC will commonly note to prepare for one SS category higher in hi-rise buildings. 


St. Pete also has several in the downtown core, bayside, including one very tall under construction. Not sure if there are still cranes there. Also wonder about the Trop and how it would hold up to these kind of wind speeds.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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55 minutes ago, Memphis Weather said:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?inundation#contents

Surge Map just updated post 11a Advisory and predictably has gotten much more dire for SW FL as well as Tampa area.

I live right across from the tip of Davis Island (the large triangle shaped Island under "Tampa") and probably get 3+ feet in this scenario.  Tampa General Hospital is on Davis, which is obviously completed submerged.

 

IMG_2689.PNG

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We have a few models including the GFS really intensifying IRMA in the next 24 hours. Can't help but wonder how strong she will get. It seems as if Cat 4 is certain, with a pretty decent shot at cat 5 if RI is underway. There's nothing to hold her back. 

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2 pm update text -

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...IRMA LINGERING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT
DAYBREAK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Still listed as a Cat 3.

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2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

We have a few models including the GFS really intensifying IRMA in the next 24 hours. Can't help but wonder how strong she will get. It seems as if Cat 4 is certain, with a pretty decent shot at cat 5 if RI is underway. There's nothing to hold her back. 

The one thing most noticeable though is that it's likely the storm won't be as large as it initially was so even if this were to make it back to a 5 the winds on the east coast may be nothing like they'd have been before.  I expected the PBI-MIA corridor based on the track last night to see a period of winds 50-70 gusting to 90 but I'm not sure that'll occur any longer thankfully for them 

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Interesting the official advisory has westward movement, when there is a clear decent northerly component.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The one thing most noticeable though is that it's likely the storm won't be as large as it initially was so even if this were to make it back to a 5 the winds on the east coast may be nothing like they'd have been before.  I expected the PBI-MIA corridor based on the track last night to see a period of winds 50-70 gusting to 90 but I'm not sure that'll occur any longer thankfully for them 

And the surge concerns have basically vanished. The building code is so strong in that area, those winds won't cause much damage at all. 

Same cannot be said for Ft Myers or Naples. 

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Euro west of yesterday's 12z position -- at 24 hours it looks to be over Key West.

EDIT: Good news -- 5 mb higher than it was progged to be this time yesterday.

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Hurricane model HMON shows the same pressure in the keys as the GFS, at ~896.  Probably overdone, but the trend is for significant strengthening, especially as the NHC expects a slower movement as it makes the turn north, allowing for more time to intensify.

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Irma is clearly NE of the Euro's initialized position, I have doubts that it'll go that far west.

Gfs positioning actually looks more realistic, whether it's right on the intensity is remains  questionable though not impossible.

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Recon is finding surface tropical storm force winds over 180 miles NW of the center and well north of Key West. It's going to be a long couple days for Florida.

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3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Euro west of yesterday's 12z position -- at 24 hours it looks to be over Key West.

EDIT: Good news -- 5 mb higher than it was progged to be this time yesterday.

Initialized too high though.  Again, relative pressure trends (drop/no drop and by how much?) are more important.

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If the new euro verified, areas north of Florida would have more impact as the storm would not weaken as much.  Out to 48 hours, the euro has the eye barely onshore near the crook of the panhandle.

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