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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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Folks, with Irma coming within 48 hours of a U.S landfall, it's time to tighten the discussion up a bit.  I've been getting numerous complaints about the quality of the previous Irma thread.   So this thread is now in storm mode...for those who aren't familar, this means:

-Mods are instructed to be heavy handed with moderation.  If your posts are disappearing, stop, get it together and make quality posts.  If not, you'll be suspended for the duration of the storm.   There are additional "black ops" mods as well as the green tag mods.  These mods are long time, respected members who are on temporary duty.  

-Absolutely no banter

-Discussion about IRMA only.   Stop discussing Jose or Katia here.  There are threads for this

-Quality, not quantity.  If you aren't sure or don't know, don't post.  There are people who are watching this thread for pertinent, good information.

-Do not come to me to appeal any punitive measure taken against you by mods, I will not read it.  Normal "warn" procedures are suspended...i/e no "three strikes, you're out"....mods can suspend or 5 post you immediately.  

Sorry to be bad cop, but we've got to do better with this stuff.    Thanks for everyone's cooperation.  

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Between the ridiculously warm water around southern Florida, the impact Cuba's mountains may have on Irma's core and the timing of the turn north, there are just an abnormally high amount of variables in this 48 hour forecast, and tens of millions of lives impacted by how this all shakes out. I don't envy the forecasters here.

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I tried to post this in the other before it was locked. 

 

Landfall isn't going to happen until Early Sunday Morning so this storm could shift back and forth between East and West several more times by then as well as weaken a little and intensify a little after that back and forth until Landfall. We won't really know a definite answer to where this will make Landfall until tomorrow Morning/Afternoon. No one in South Florida (including Miami) is out of the woods yet. Remeber it wasn't until Friday afternoon that we knew where Harvey would make Landfall later that night. Things change on an hourly basis. We have rest of today and all of tomorrow. Also, this storm is the size of Florida which is way smaller in size compared to Texas so even if it hit Southwest coast Miami would still be affected in some ways. The major issue for Houston Metro was flooding but for Miami, the issue is going to be the wind more than anything. 

 

There reason why NHC, TWC, etc,.  . have to declare a specific location (or city)  being the precise place where tHe Hurricane will make Landfall.  I know some  some like to be optimistic and that fine but also need to be a little realistic as well. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

Between the ridiculously warm water around southern Florida, the impact Cuba's mountains may have on Irma's core and the timing of the turn north, there are just an abnormally high amount of variables in this 48 hour forecast, and tens of millions of lives impacted by how this all shakes out. I don't envy the forecasters here.

The northern coast of Cuba has relatively flat terrain. The highest mountains are in the South. 

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2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

About how much time.does it spend in the water between Cuba and Florida coast . How much strength can it produce in this time frame 

Earlier, I believe someone posted that it would be about 24 hours.  However, if the western solutions verify (or if we see an even farther west track), the time over water would increase.

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Definitely not pumped at that track from 48-72.  With 60ish mile error margin at 72h, this leaves the door open for a harsh outcome to the major cities along the Gulf Coast of FLA.  Water is toasty, the fish have been lethargic and it's like bath water at Clearwater Beach.

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2 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

About how much time.does it spend in the water between Cuba and Florida coast . How much strength can it produce in this time frame 

Earlier, I believe someone posted that it would be about 24 hours.  However, if the western solutions verify (or if we see an even farther west track), the time over water would increase.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's an interesting solution on the euro. The storm obviously would weaken over cstl Cuba, but if the euro is right, that is rapidly intensifying into SW FL where the importance of this storm was more centered for MIA-FLL area. 

Looks like a stronger Hurricane Donna. 

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The 12z ECMWF takes Irma across Key West into southwest Florida. That portion of the state appears likely to experience the most severe conditions from Irma. At this time, there may be some reason for cautious optimism that Miami will experience a rough but not catastrophic impact. Caution is still advisable, as the ECMWF has averaged 48-hour errors in its track forecast of just over 50 miles. A 50-mile shift to the East would be devastating for Miami. Hopefully, tonight's and tomorrow's runs and the storm tracks will allow one to have greater confidence in where things currently stand.

Forecast wind gusts on the 12z ECMWF courtesy of Weather.US:

ECMWF0908201712z.jpg

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