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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nobody respects the power of land disruption. Put the ICON models down. 

I know you, I and a few other people mentioned that, along with the shear and dry air as it approached the coast, but it was met with a great deal of skepticism to say the least.

I also think that land interaction is more damaging to a system with a well developed core that is in a state of flux at the time of said interaction....as Irma was a cat 5 going through a ERC. 

You just have to factor that in....when I ever saw that downslope derived dry slot develop in the core downwind from that mountain range, my mind was made up.

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1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

More populated interior areas like Sebring and Winter Haven and Lakeland may see higher winds than expected as the center passes much closer to them than previously forecast and the remaining eyewall comes through.

Yeah, from the current COC motion, those inland locations will be worse than Tampa or Sarasota. 

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Hopefully the lesson is learned that sometimes the basics need to be honored rather than models and speculation. In this case the basic fundamental principle is that land (cuba in thus case) damages hurricanes. Irma was beautiful prior to interacting with Cuba.


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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Shortly after Irma's eye passed through Fort Myers I did a back of the envelope approximation of the number of customers without power throughout the state and came to 2.5 million. Averaging 3 people per household, that's 7.5 million people without power as of 1.5 hrs ago...

Dade County showed like 900K out of 1.1 million out

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4 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Hopefully the lesson is learned that sometimes the basics need to be honored rather than models and speculation. In this case the basic fundamental principle is that land (cuba in thus case) damages hurricanes. Irma was beautiful prior to interacting with Cuba.


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The worst offender was the GFS which still had near or below 900 mb solutions post Cuba.

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Just now, MattPetrulli said:

No contact with Mike Theiss and Reed Timmer for about 12 hours. Probably due to bad cell reception, hope nothing bad occurred.

I have friends in Miami who managed to get out a few text messages - no power and no voice cellular, and intermittent text ability in Miami area.
I'm sure the same holds true for much of southern Florida

 

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4 minutes ago, OpenToSuggestions said:

Great 48 hr GOES16 loop. Really highlights where she ingested air over Cuba, and how close she came to really reintensifying. 

 

Looks like the Keys, which are normally just a small roadbump for a major storm, interrupted the re-intensification process at a critical time.

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49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another tell-tale sign to be leery of major intensification is a CDO that is comprised of banded, striated colder tops....not a solid shield.

Irma had that look when it got near Cuba....I like to see a solid envelop of -70-80c tops.

Maybe someone mentioned it and I missed it, but what about the sheer size of the circulation? Much harder to get a large system to ramp up rapidly as opposed to a small one.

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