HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 St Petersburg gusting over 50 now. The tide timing isn't great for Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Naples tide gauge now 4.1' above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, friedmators said: Well the one thing to learn from this for the general public is why the NHC uses a cone for predicted path. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Also it is much better to use the average track of the models rather than just rely on one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Wow nice bursts of energy lost a couple of fruit trees and counting east wind at 50 with higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Intensity forecasts were way off too. Most models showed at least a cat 3 by Tampa and a stronger storm overall. Humbling for forecasters no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Andy what was the highest gust reported with that ob? Thanks! 129 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 13 minutes ago, jbenedet said: If this goes due north, into Orlando, it's not just the euro that didn't show that - it's everything except the GFS... Yeah, but the Euro had the SW Florida landfall while the GFS was still looking to pass east of Miami. I guess it's just another lesson, one of many, about relying on any piece of guidance. Or really, a sobering reminder that we still have a long ways to go in NWP. Yes, and then there was the UKMET with, for a few runs, had her driven well into Cuba then run NNE back over FL and nearly coming off into the Atlantic (which very likely won't happen now). It's about the progression of the wave break and how long it's going to take before she feels the effects. Earlier runs were showing much more of a N to NNE sprint before curving back west before many folded to a W to NNW movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Jim Cantore just nearly blew away, pretty sure he caught air for a second too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Naples station NPSF1 (buoy system) has 69kt (79mph) westerly gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 22 minutes ago, jbenedet said: If this goes due north, into Orlando, it's not just the euro that didn't show that - it's everything except the GFS... Yeah, but the Euro had the SW Florida landfall while the GFS was still looking to pass east of Miami. I guess it's just another lesson, one of many, about relying on any piece of guidance. Or really, a sobering reminder that we still have a long ways to go in NWP. Maybe it's the Manatee effect rather than the Butterfly Effect on initial conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Despite its somewhat remote location it seems that palm beach to Miami arguably got the worst of it among the big population centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like it is going east of Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Late day image from GOES16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Amped said: This maybe worse for East Florida and Georgia than Mathew was, especially if Irma doesn't turn back to the west soon. There was a wobble about an hour ago but it appears to have evened out. The eastern wind-field is only going to expand as the storms energy disperses. Yeah I know it's the NAM but everything is trending this way. I can assure you the wind on the eastern side of this thing is impressive. PBI gusting to 87 at last hour. I'm on the barrier island NNE of there and probably getting gusts well in excess of 90. They seem to be lessening in last 30 minutes but this has been an impressive wind display across the east coast metro areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Despite its somewhat remote location it seems that palm beach to Miami arguably got the worst of it among the big population centers. Sobering to think what might have transpired with one of those RFQ scenarios from last week. Seeing the impacts from being in the east side today, it would have been beyond comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 34 minutes ago, Ridingtime said: Intensity forecasts were way off too. Most models showed at least a cat 3 by Tampa and a stronger storm overall. Humbling for forecasters no doubt There were plenty of signs that intensity would be overdone once it emerged from Cuba so structurally compromised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There were plenty of signs that intensity would be overdone once it emerged from Cuba so structurally compromised. Yes, but all anyone talked about was the warm waters and the lack of shear. It did come back to a cat 4 for the keys and honestly I was a little surprised it didn't hold it together a little more for the west coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: I can assure you the wind on the eastern side of this thing is impressive. PBI gusting to 87 at last hour. I'm on the barrier island NNE of there and probably getting gusts well in excess of 90. They seem to be lessening in last 30 minutes but this has been an impressive wind display across the east coast metro areas 79 gust in Orlando. Outside of landfall area on the west almost all the major winds are east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, MikeB_01 said: Yes, but all anyone talked about was the warm waters and the lack of shear. It did come back to a cat 4 for the keys and honestly I was a little surprised it didn't hold it together a little more for the west coast My opinion is that by the time that the core recovered from Cuba, shear and dry air from the trough were already encroaching, which mitigated the intensification....hence we saw only modest reintensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There were plenty of signs that intensity would be overdone once it emerged from Cuba so structurally compromised. The intensity was very tied to the track. If it was still offshore it'd still be a CAT3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Center appears to be somewhat east even of most of the 18z hurricane models. We aren't talking massive differences in mileage but still, I wonder what caused the rightward nudge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Amped said: The intensity was very tied to the track. If it was still offshore it'd still be a CAT3. I think people are referring to the degree of intensity that it regained after Cuba, not current intensity....which would still be greater had it intensified more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Yes, but all anyone talked about was the warm waters and the lack of shear. It did come back to a cat 4 for the keys and honestly I was a little surprised it didn't hold it together a little more for the west coast Big SST drop from 87 to 80 with all the offshore flow as Irma tracked north of the Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 This early landfall is going to help us a lot in N FL. It should weaken quite a bit before making it up this way after so much time over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Center appears to be somewhat east even of most of the 18z hurricane models. We aren't talking massive differences in mileage but still, I wonder what caused the rightward nudge. Wave break not as quick as forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think people are referring to the degree of intensity that it regained after Cuba, not current intensity....which would still be greater had it intensified more. Nobody respects the power of land disruption. Put the ICON models down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: This early landfall is going to help us a lot in N FL. It should weaken quite a bit before making it up this way after so much time over land. You'll more than likely be on the western side as well which will definitely help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Steering currents kind of wonky with the storm as well - I bet models having a hard time with storm vs ridge timing, etc.http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&time= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Big SST drop from 87 to 80 with all the offshore flow as Irma tracked north of the Keys. Very interesting. I never would have thought of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Had it not struck Cuba it likely would have gone over Miami as a Cat 5 because the further east track likely would have coincided with a more east track later as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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