Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Somesand said: I was just able to view KBYX's feed from Radarscope, so I think it's still alive KBYX is still alive ber NOAA Nexrad OPShttps://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/Level_III/Level3Info.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Somesand said: I was just able to view KBYX's feed from Radarscope, so I think it's still alive Key West super-res is intermittant; but low res has been working consistantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: East would be better but based on the 0z euro, and current radar trends, I believe it will pass west of Tampa. There's still definitely some west component to the movement, and models have that continuing. Hopefully it can turn a little more northerly and jog east of Tampa, but I'm not optimistic either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: A bit perplexed right now. Pretty impressive increase of lightning there. Are we going to see a small additional period of intensification? Not ideal timing considering it's a few hours from Naples. We'd have to get recon into the eyewall to see what the situation is. Pretty obvious that dry air has eaten up the southern portion, but this northern section looks really intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Perplexed. The southern eyewall has been open for some time now per radar. I'd never had thought the radar presentation would be such by looking at various satellite products. Even water vapor which clearly shows the dry air the storm is ingesting doesn't show radar and recon reality. Its reacting to the ULL what is happening is its feeding off the jet stream and the atlantic all the way into southern south carolina. Do a continental water vaper radar and you'll see it. It's currently strengthening, but rather than the strength being in a complete circle it's all on the northern eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 There is a big difference between Tampa and Tampa Bay. It could come close to Tampa, but being on the east side of the bay, that is much better than if the eyewall raked through Clearwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 It will be really interesting to see how many Florida counties end up experiencing hurricane force gusts. Giant wind field! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: There's still definitely some west component to the movement, and models have that continuing. Hopefully it can turn a little more northerly and jog east of Tampa, but I'm not optimistic either. Yea. While I agree it currently looks slightly east of the Euro's position, it's not far enough to take this east of Tampa, if that error is extrapolated. On top of this, the Euro has been best with short term track guidance...so there's that as well.. I'm also thinking the phasing of that shortwave to the northwest is going to continue to provide a west component to her movement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 High Res data still up per NOAA for Key West KBYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBK Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Sent from Family in Cape Coral...things are starting to pick up. You are looking at a large canal. received_10155596444572086Trim (2).mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Somesand Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Already been getting a lot of rain and wind at my location. Tornado warning/watch in effect as well. Had a hairy situation a bit ago with an area of rotation coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Watching NBC-2 Ft. Myers and their in-house model is pretty close to xtrp with the storm going pretty much up 41/75. That's the forecast they went with on -air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea. While I agree it currently looks slightly east of the Euro's position, it's not far enough to take this east of Tampa, if that error is extrapolated. On top of this, the Euro has been best with short term track guidance...so there's that as well.. I'm also thinking the phasing of that shortwave to the northwest is going to continue to provide a west component to her movement... Once it makes landfall at Marco Island the question completely is does it have a nnw component enough to come over tampa or to the west of tampa. Regardless it's going to be on or near not to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Marco Island is going to go through the north side of the eyewall. Looking on Google Earth there are a row of 20 story condos along the west and south side of the island. This will be a good test for windows/hurricane shutters on high rises. I can't think of a strong eyewall coming ashore ever in the US right against a row of high rises. This was one of my main concerns a few days ago for Miami Dade. Now we will see how Marco Island holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 You really just deleted my post.. It's completely scientifically verifiable. Since you won't let me say it I'll let someone else say it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, mappy said: Talk about live media and chasers streams need to go here I feel like you said this before. lol I think there should be some clarification. A post like "______'s stream in Naples has shown a big deterioration in conditions in the last few minutes" is one thing, but ongoing discussion/play by play of feeds clogs the thread. Like the Jeff P shed thing in Harvey... riveting, but people posting every single detail as it was happening was excessive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Irma about to tear a new one through Naples-Ft Myers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I can't believe how big this storm is. I honestly didn't think Miami would get hit this hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 High DBZ values being measured in this eyewall, 57.5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Eye is clearing out right before landfall. Last frame on GOES IR. Can't post link but the eye looks much better on IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 This may be old news, but it looks like Key West Airport stopped reporting at 1238z, about 1 1/2 hours after they had 82 kt gusts KEYW 101238Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA VV006 A2814 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE PRESRR P0062 $ KEYW 101228Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA VV005 A2811 RMK AO2 P0055 $ KEYW 101205Z AUTO 1/4SM +RA VV007 A2812 RMK AO2 PRESFR P0017 $ KEYW 101153Z AUTO 1/2SM +RA VV008 A2816 RMK AO2 PK WND 03082/1113 PRESFR SLP537 P0045 60159 70497 58207 $ KEYW 101143Z AUTO 1/4SM RA BKN009 OVC015 A2820 RMK AO2 PK WND 03082/1113 P0032 $ KEYW 101130Z AUTO 1/2SM -RA BKN012 OVC018 A2822 RMK AO2 PK WND 03082/1113 PRESFR P0016 $ KEYW 101127Z AUTO 01044G69KT 1SM -RA SCT010 OVC015 A2824 RMK AO2 PK WND 03082/1113 PRESFR P0015 $ KEYW 101115Z AUTO 02052G82KT 1 1/4SM RA BKN012 OVC017 A2833 RMK AO2 PK WND 03082/1113 PRESFR P0014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 https://mobile.twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/906926221744906242?p=p #StormSurge wasn't modeled to be this high along the #Miami River. Not even an evacuation zone! Up to 3 ft and rising #Irma #HurricaineIrmapic.twitter.com/iTEwrPHkp9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yea. While I agree it currently looks slightly east of the Euro's position, it's not far enough to take this east of Tampa, if that error is extrapolated. On top of this, the Euro has been best with short term track guidance...so there's that as well.. I'm also thinking the phasing of that shortwave to the northwest is going to continue to provide a west component to her movement... And expand her... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: I can't believe how big this storm is. I honestly didn't think Miami would get hit this hard. The northeast side is the hardest hit in any hurricane, and it's a large circulation. Hopefully the surge flooding in Biscayne Bay isn't too bad, but from what I'm seeing it's getting pretty high. And another west nudge will put Naples/Ft Myers in the east eyewall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Eye is clearing out right before landfall. Last frame on GOES IR. Can't post link but the eye looks much better on IR Screencapped the last frame (the set of frames before had spinning debris before the apparent hole opened up) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Man every wobble means so much for the coastline from Naples on up. Crazy how even 5 miles probably means a difference of at least a few feet in surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Screencapped the last frame - Possibly the healthiest it has looked all day so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Looks like she is intensifying right before landfall. Terrible news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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