jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Irma seems to be over preforming in SE Florida with a 100 MPH gust recently reported in Miami area. They're experiencing and taking on the head some healthy tropical storm conditions that will continue the next few hours and likely be mixed in with gusts over hurricane force. The northeast quadrant will be no joke even if the destructive stuff stays on the west coast. Banding will be coming through all day that will be good at mixing hurricane force gusts down throughout SE FL. There will also probably be some damaging surge on the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: The northeast quadrant will be no joke even if the destructive stuff stays on the west coast. Banding will be coming through all day that will be good at mixing hurricane force gusts down throughout SE FL. There will also probably be some damaging surge on the beaches. Yeah judging on the conditions in SE FL, we're probably going to see a damaging inland wind event for inner parts of the Florida Peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Irma seems to be over preforming in SE Florida with a 100 MPH gust recently reported in Miami area. They're experiencing and taking on the head some healthy tropical storm conditions that will continue the next few hours and likely be mixed in with gusts over hurricane force. this doesn't surprise me. people need to remember just how narrow florida is. it's about 100 miles from naples to boynton. impacts will be felt from coast to coast. the wave action in miami right now is impressive. as irma gains latitude, the impacts on the east coast will only increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 i'm curious why the low sustained wind but this station in the keys reported a 120mph gust a little while ago.. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=TS607&num=48&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 If it stays offshore like the euro then yes, that's a bad track for Tampa/St Pete with the surge getting shoved into the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Pressure up to 933mb per dropsonde. The western part of the hurricane is really weak per recon. Not even similar to the eastern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: Pressure up to 933mb per dropsonde. The western part of the hurricane is really weak per recon. Not even similar to the eastern part. Can really see the effect of the dry air eating away at the western edge of the precip shield on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Area near Naples looks to be landfall point on the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 This isn't a Harvey vs Irma thread. Keep it about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Morris said: 105 kts peak SFMR in the NE eyewall in the new recon pass. It's likely that the storm was only a category 3 at landfall. Dropsonde in the NE Eyewall was 129 knots at the surface. roduct: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 13:53ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Number: 11Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 30Observation Number: 11Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 10th day of the monthHighest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mbCoordinates: 24.9N 81.3WLocation: 38 statute miles (62 km) to the NE (52°) from Key West, FL, USA.Marsden Square: 081 Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -446m (-1,463 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 951mb (28.09 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 25.4°C (78°F) 105° (from the ESE) 129 knots (148 mph) 925mb 246m (807 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.3°C (76°F) 120° (from the ESE) 140 knots (161 mph) 850mb 989m (3,245 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 20.5°C (69°F) 135° (from the SE) 130 knots (150 mph) 700mb 2,663m (8,737 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) 13.9°C (57°F) 150° (from the SSE) 117 knots (135 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Dry air starting to wrap into the western side of the circulation https://weather.us/satellite/848-w-267-n/satellit-water-vapor-superhd-15min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10am radar loop: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The radar and water vapor line up nicely with the returns vanishing in the western periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Although far from the eye SE Florida must be taking some pretty good sustained winds. I'm seeing over a million w/o power just in Miami-Dade and Broward counties according to FPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Although far from the eye SE Florida must be taking some pretty good sustained winds. I'm seeing over a million w/o power just in Miami-Dade and Broward counties according to FPL. 9:49 AM: Wind gust of 82 mph was recorded at the #Miami International Airport (ITWS wind sensor). https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906878736120905728?p=v A wind gust of 120 mph was reported by the RAWs observing site at the National Key Deer Refuge on Big Pine Key at 9:38 AM EDT. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSKeyWest/status/906883628612947973?p=p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Although far from the eye SE Florida must be taking some pretty good sustained winds. I'm seeing over a million w/o power just in Miami-Dade and Broward counties according to FPL. SFMR had some questionable (but not flagged) readings south of Miami about an hour ago. These are stronger than SFMR found in the eyewall, but less than the eyewall dropsonde. 116kt are unflagged. The two 120+kt readings are flagged though. 132230 2513N 08036W 6969 02979 //// +079 //// 148088 089 098 002 05 132300 2512N 08038W 6966 02979 //// +081 //// 151088 091 123 001 05 132330 2511N 08039W 6964 02974 //// +080 //// 153089 090 /// /// 05 132400 2510N 08041W 6969 02962 //// +082 //// 153090 091 /// /// 05 132430 2510N 08042W 6962 02967 //// +083 //// 156091 093 /// /// 05 132500 2509N 08044W 6965 02952 9836 +097 //// 153094 095 125 011 05 132530 2508N 08045W 6962 02958 9835 +119 +119 154094 099 116 026 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, cwc said: Doesn't anyone find it odd that the dropsone wind data doesn't match the on ground data in the slightest? Small top wind field on the NE eye wall. HCF/TSF winds are far out but only a small area will see the high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: 9:49 AM: Wind gust of 82 mph was recorded at the #Miami International Airport (ITWS wind sensor). https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906878736120905728?p=v Impressive. I know we also have a 100 mph report from Miami but that I believe was from an island just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, cwc said: Doesn't anyone find it odd that the dropsone wind data doesn't match the on ground data in the slightest? Usually the max sustained winds are going to be occurring over open water and friction over land will slow them down a bit. Keep in mind it is largely over open water right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Given the current nrly motion for the last few hours, it seems like landfalll could be more towards Marco island. Obviously every little wobble or turn NW is critical, but that's how it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Impressive. I know we also have a 100 mph report from Miami but that I believe was from an island just off the coast. NPR reported at 100mph gust at Miami International during their 10AM news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 IR seems to indicate shes really getting her act together in an area right around her eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Given the current nrly motion for the last few hours, it seems like landfalll could be more towards Marco island. Obviously every little wobble or turn NW is critical, but that's how it looks right now. Agreed sir, definitely seems that way. My Cousin lives 10 miles east of Tampa Bay and have been watching closely for that reason. In other news does anyone have a recon feed? The one I usually use is having technical difficulties. Looks like surface winds are about 112 kt but I don't trust the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: NPR reported at 100mph gust at Miami International during their 10AM news I believe that was measured at the University of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Well the dropsonde and SFMR readings would certainly be strong enough evidence to support that a 2nd cat 4 landfall did occur this season today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Given the current nrly motion for the last few hours, it seems like landfalll could be more towards Marco island. Obviously every little wobble or turn NW is critical, but that's how it looks right now. Latest radar loop looks almost due N movement. A shift just E of current modeling will bring some pretty good sustained winds into the Orlando area. Last night I was guesstimating 2 million w/o power from this but I may be way low on that number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I mentioned earlier the 12z models on tropicaltidbits came a get east, keeps the center east of Tampa Bay. Follows coast around Naples then goes inland. Agrees with current motion on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Latest radar loop looks almost due N movement. A shift just E of current modeling will bring some pretty good sustained winds into the Orlando area. Last night I was guesstimating 2 million w/o power from this but I may be way low on that number. Seems like it is bearing down on Everglades City in the extended radar frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: Small top wind field on the NE eye wall. HCF/TSF winds are far out but only a small area will see the high winds. There will be plenty of damaging winds to the right of the eye. There are probably sustained hurricane force winds around Miami if there are gusts near 100 mph. That will continue north up the coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.