Cary Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: 2 minutes ago, Cary said: What do you think you're missing? Track is pretty bad, not sure if worst case scenario. Somebody posted something about Tampa dodging a bullet because it was going to track east of them, is now deleted though. I just woke up and looked at the Euro and current satellite and was confused. Gotcha. It's bad as modeled, and I'm worried about my aunt and uncle near Clearwater, but that's for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 130-150 all along the coast? They have a hard time with that on the keys. I dunno..that's a bit aggressive. I said from Naples to Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, mappy said: Storm Mode is still in effect. There are other threads for Observations, Evaucations, Live Feeds and most importantly banter. Please please please post in the appropriate thread. If you see your posts disappearing, think before posting. 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Take it to banter if you wanna argue over observations and what's hurricane forced vs tropical storm ^^^^^^^ THIS I'm not deleting any more posts, I'm now removing people from posting for the next several days. This is the ONLY warning you all will get. Make wise choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, buckeyefan1 said: ^^^^^^^ THIS I'm not deleting any more posts, I'm now removing people from posting for the next several days. This is the ONLY warning you all will get. Make wise choices hi love! I don't have that power, just hiding posts as I come across them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Eye looking improved on radar. Looks to be closing off the EW to the south. I thought at first that I was simply seeing the southern EW better from KW radar now that there is less attenuation from that site, but Miami radar confirms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterymix said: 9am update from NHC...130 mph sustained ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......190NE 170SE 140SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 81.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.3W http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/100858.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 She is looking better on IR and radar too. Man, Marco Island looks to have some issues this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Eye looking improved on radar. Looks to be closing off the EW to the south. I thought at first that I was simply seeing the southern EW better from KW radar now that there is less attenuation from that site, but Miami radar confirms. yeah, first time since it's left cuba strong convection as gone 3/4 of the way around the eye instead of half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, mappy said: hi love! I don't have that power, just hiding posts as I come across them. Once you all hide them...I will send them on vacation Team work makes the dream work I just want to take a moment to thank you guys dressed in black You all are my hero's and words can't tell you how much you all are appreciated. Seriously, genuinely, honestly appreciated. Thank you Now.....back to your regular scheduled program of making wise choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: She is looking better on IR and radar too. Man, Marco Island looks to have some issues this aftn. Yea. I'm also thinking she's going to be able to really effectively mix those high winds/gusts down to the surface as she taps the Upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Winds gusty all up the E FL coast, St. Augustine Gusted to 44 last hour, Naples sustained TS Force now. Should start ramping up there when the next heavy band moves in. Following current heading, Irma would landfall at Marco and follow the coast for a bit, of course still plenty of time for wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 That northern eyewall is looking fierce. So are we not getting any more recon at all? I know they stop once landfall happens but here "landfall" over the key will be followed by an 80 mile trek over open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, (So)Alexandria said: That northern eyewall is looking fierce. So are we not getting any more recon at all? I know they stop once landfall happens but here "landfall" over the key will be followed by an 80 mile trek over open water. There is a plane in it right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 NBC just had a live feed from Florida city and the winds were very impressive to say the least, certainly looked like legit hurricane conditions, the NE part of this storm appears to be efficiently mixing down the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 key west radar still running well: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes miami radar: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes looks like the next wave will be entering miami shortly. still a lot of impact on the fla east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 GOES-16 1 minute imagery is awesome, even when it's of a hurricane as terrible as Irma. Can see the gravity waves in the CDO indicating extremely strong convection. Not perfect, but good enough to be an extremely dangerous storm. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/818-w-247-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, (So)Alexandria said: That northern eyewall is looking fierce. So are we not getting any more recon at all? I know they stop once landfall happens but here "landfall" over the key will be followed by an 80 mile trek over open water. They said they are heading back to New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cary said: What do you think you're missing? Track is pretty bad, not sure if worst case scenario. It's nowhere near worst case for Tampa (I really do wish folks would stop with the hyperbole, it's bad enough as is) but up to 9 feet is no joke and would be very impactful. Comes down to the track at this point. Not sure winds up or down 10 mph would be material at this point in terms of surge outcome. As others have said, storms like Katrina and Sandy managed to push an enormous amount of water and destruction even at lower cat designations upon landfall. I'd prefer to see the GFS track, but it's rarely a good idea to bet against the Euro. I'm more worried about Ft Myers and south right now, and especially Marco Island. Lots of great people and tons of memories from that place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, TPAwx said: It's nowhere near worst case for Tampa (I really do wish folks would stop with the hyperbole, it's bad enough as is) but up to 9 feet is no joke and would be very impactful. Comes down to the track at this point. Not sure winds up or down 10 mph would be material at this point in terms of surge outcome. As others have said, storms like Katrina and Sandy managed to push an enormous amount of water and destruction even at lower cat designations upon landfall. I'd prefer to see the GFS track, but it's rarely a good idea to bet against the Euro. I'm more worried about Ft Myers and south right now, and especially Marco Island. Lots of great people and tons of memories from that place. Ft Myers area is really gonna get it. Have a lot of great memories there too, really worried for Ike like surge. Knowing Ft Myers beach and the way it's built, they're probably going to have a lot of devastation. Naples too, downtown is expected to have 9+ ft of surge via NHC's surge map. Never been there, but could see from Ft Myers coastline, looked like a nice area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, (So)Alexandria said: That northern eyewall is looking fierce. So are we not getting any more recon at all? I know they stop once landfall happens but here "landfall" over the key will be followed by an 80 mile trek over open water. No more NOAA recon, but USAF is still going to work it. NOAA had to evac to New Orlenes per a tweet from them. The SE eyewall has definitely improved its radar presentation. Another thing I noticed is the banding around the eyewall is improving. This new band (arrow), just popped up and doesn't look fun for Layton. I think some slight intensification will come in the next couple hours. If the eyewall cannot close off, then anything more than an additional 5-10mph is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Remember wind field is more expansive on NE side, it is the west side that has the dry air/shear. Power outages really mounting now, almost 1.1 million customers out (incl. 1/2 Miami Dade and 1/3 Broward.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 We have landfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12z track guidance keeps the center just E of Tampa, obviously better for them, comes down to when motion bends back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Can't stress enough that this thread is for analysis and meaningful discussion ONLY. I'm deleting other banter as soon as I see it. Please put those posts in other threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, dan11295 said: 12z track guidance keeps the center just E of Tampa, obviously better for them, comes down to when motion bends back to the west. Do you have the chart available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Well who knows if it would hold up in eventual reanalysis but that is 2 cat 4 landfalls in the US in one season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Irma seems to be over preforming in SE Florida with a 100 MPH gust recently reported in Miami area. They're experiencing and taking on the head some healthy tropical storm conditions that will continue the next few hours and likely be mixed in with gusts over hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 This image is current: 1 min visible. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/818-w-247-n/satellite-superhd-1min.html#play eye looks to have cleared out just a tiny bit in the last few minutes, can see a little blue ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 105 kts peak SFMR in the NE eyewall in the new recon pass. It's likely that the storm was only a category 3 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Key West buoy and vaca key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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