Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Cudjoe Key wind profiler for my work has sustained 110 knots between 2.5-5k feet AGL. Sitting at 80 knots just above the surface. She's coming. Eye should pass overhead unless she wobbles west. I hope the profiler doesn't give out. On the generator backup now.

And Cudjoe is not in the eyewall yet.  Thre wobble west in the last frame could really help Marathon, though the eyewall will certainly get into the 7 mile bridge coming out of Marathon.  Can't find a webcame in the middle keys.  Do you have any real time obs near Marathon?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I already said I was wrong long ago...has nothing to do with that.

I busted.

Seems to be dry air to the south, and the western outflow is restricted some.


The dry air, is that based on radar, heard on the tube that radar is likely not capturing the southern eyewall properly ...idk


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

And Cudjoe is not in the eyewall yet.  Thre wobble west in the last frame could really help Marathon, though the eyewall will certainly get into the 7 mile bridge coming out of Marathon.  Can't find a webcame in the middle keys.  Do you have any real time obs near Marathon?

The only one I can find is Vaca Key on Mesowest

59b508ff50239_VacaKey.PNG.39e8873c308360fe872ffcbf518e669d.PNG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I'm not sure weakening/not weakening is the right debate here. To me, she's going to start looking less and less like a pure tropical cyclone, due to the interaction with the trough and the phasing with that shortwave to her northwest. This is something we more typically see east off the Carolina coast, in/around the mid latitudes. The implications are significantly broadened as a result--the hurricane force wind field will be enormous, particularly on her east side...

I think the east coast of Florida is going to be surprised by the amount and intensity of hurricane force wind despite the eyewall passing 100+miles to their west. They also have the background flow and easterly fetch off the open water to maximize the wind impact...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

i see dry air to the north west but nowhere in the south. I also see the vaper trail to the jet. I also see on loop as irma reorganizes she has been tightening up the spread which looks like shear is effecting it until you run the loop and see it all just tightening up. 

Yes, that's fair.

Regardless, it definitely looks to intensify more than I had thought....just to be clear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:


The dry air, is that based on radar, heard on the tube that radar is likely not capturing the southern eyewall properly ...idk

There is probably some attenuation given the amount of water, but overall the 88D has pretty low attenuation levels.

Back of the envelope calculations based on where the edge of the eyewall is (roughly 80-85 km) the attenuation could be 3-5 dB or so. So not quite enough to account for such a large area of little to no echoes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

There is probably some attenuation given the amount of water, but overall the 88D has pretty low attenuation levels.

Back of the envelope calculations based on where the edge of the eyewall is (roughly 80-85 km) the attenuation could be 3-5 dB or so. So not quite enough to account for such a large area of little to no echoes.

Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It could also be shallower convection the beam is overshooting, in between bands of more intense, taller convection.

The situation gets a bit more ambiguous when they interact with midlatitude systems because the days of them looking great are gone...regardless of intensity. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I don't want to draw direct parallels here but when I was seeing those strong winds yesterday over the SE coast of Florida and near the Bahamas, hundreds of miles from the COC, it reminded me of the weather I experienced the day before Sandy made landfall.

 

I was just thinking of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...