mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: I google earthed the Keys to see if maybe the eyewall could hit less populated regions, but sadly there are just so many mobile homes and businesses all over the place. It won't be pretty. It looks like the eye will go right over key west. Big Pine is just east and that will get the eyewall. There are some more less inhabited stretches between Key West and Marathon. Marathon is heavily populated. It would take quite the wobble to put Marathon in the eyewall...so very happy as my sister has a brand new house there. Is there a way to track surge into the Keys? That is the big concern for areas towards Marathon, as the winds are manageable. The webcam from marathon that I was watching is now offline. The northern half of the eyewall though look really potent and Key West might be severely damag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 130 mph/928 mb moving NW at 8 mph @ 5:00 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Surprised that they kept it at 130. 928. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 924.4 latest extrap, down ~2 mb from last extrap presssure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I think it would be going bonkers if the shear and dry air were not keeping it in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Why would they keep her at 130? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Probably not a real reason to go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Probably not a real reason to go higher. I think the intensification window is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 73G94 at Smith Shoal Light according to NWS Key West FB page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 More lightning with the NE eyewall. She continues to strengthen on approach to the Lower Keys. There's going to be catastrophic damage within the entire Lower island. Big Pine is the second largest community in the Lower Keys and they will be slammed by the Eastern eyewall. Bahia Honda, Ohio Key will also be within the Eastern eyewall for the majority of the time this morning. The state park at Bahia Honda may have irreputable damage after this storm. Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 160-170mph at 2800 feet on radar showing up consistently now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 A bit of a problem. current recon mission ends soon, and next one isn't scheduled for another 10 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: A bit of a problem. current recon mission ends soon, and next one isn't scheduled for another 10 hours Wow....that is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: A bit of a problem. current recon mission ends soon, and next one isn't scheduled for another 10 hours Probably pretty close to hitting their flying hours with how much they have been updating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: More lightning with the NE eyewall. She continues to strengthen on approach to the Lower Keys. There's going to be catastrophic damage within the entire Lower island. Big Pine is the second largest community in the Lower Keys and they will be slammed by the Eastern eyewall. Bahia Honda, Ohio Key will also be within the Eastern eyewall for the majority of the time this morning. The state park at Bahia Honda may have irreputable damage after this storm. Sad Bahia Honda is one of the most incredible beaches I've been to. Have you found a working webcam down there? It is good news that the eyewall will likely miss Marathon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The northern eyewall of Cat 4 Irma now just 9 miles away from Big Pine Key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: The northern eyewall of Cat 4 Irma now just 9 miles away from Big Pine Key and it looks like the eye wall is bulging off to the norteast, according to nexrad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Motion seems to have been closer to due N for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Man that is some deep convection wrapping around again. Don't think she's slowing down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man that is some deep convection wrapping around again. Don't think she's slowing down yet. Not weakening, but I think it is being adversely impacted. Retarding intensification, somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man that is some deep convection wrapping around again. Don't think she's slowing down yet. unless something drastically changes in the next couple hours she'll be a cat 5 or close by land fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yikes I'm getting nervous. On the larger scale radar it looked like a key west landfall. Now it looks like Big Pine with the eyewall RFQ impacting Marathon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Of course it now takes a west wobble it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not weakening, but I think it is being adversely impacted. Retarding intensification, somewhat. Just an observation, but you seem to be confirmation biasing your forecast from earlier a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not weakening, but I think it is being adversely impacted. Retarding intensification, somewhat. Yeah it's a bit of a junky eye on IR. I think it still has some room to get a boost before shear and other crap gets in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 You can tell from the IR that shear is impinging on the NW flank. Hopefully it will get strong enough to weaken Irma before core hits mainland SW Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Just an observation, but you seem to be confirmation biasing your forecast from earlier a bit. I already said I was wrong long ago...has nothing to do with that. I busted. Seems to be dry air to the south, and the western outflow is restricted some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Cudjoe Key wind profiler for my work has sustained 110 knots between 2.5-5k feet AGL. Sitting at 80 knots just above the surface. She's coming. Eye should pass overhead unless she wobbles west. I hope the profiler doesn't give out. On the generator backup now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I would imagine we're getting close to an extreme wind warning for the Keys. We're moving in on the 1 hour ETA of the strongest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, dan11295 said: You can tell from the IR that shear is impinging on the NW flank. Hopefully it will get strong enough to weaken Irma before core hits mainland SW Florida This is what I meant. The race is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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