ice1972 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: 0z Euro would be very bad for surge in Tampa... Wouldn't surge be more problematic there after the eye gets north of the area when the winds are out of the west to southwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Irma is creeping along, almost looks stalled out the last few frames, though obviously not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoreyandFrosty Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Those winds are at least a few thousand feet above ground. Won't get 100% of that at ground level. But do you think winds could gusting to hurricane force in Atlanta if this map verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: They could get a sneaky disaster What's up Ray, i agree, this thing kept its circulation Very intact after being over Cuba for as long as it did....she's always been Strong...and is ramping up yet again!!! She's been a beast since inception...nothing stopping her now!! Hang on Western Florida!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoreyandFrosty said: But do you think winds could gusting to hurricane force in Atlanta if this map verified? Yes, it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Marathon gust to 88 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, CoreyandFrosty said: But do you think winds could gusting to hurricane force in Atlanta if this map verified? The NAM and RGEM likely are more on track for Atlanta showing 45-48kt peak winds. The GFS at 76kts and the Euro at 80-85 seem lost unless there is some odd mesoscale feature in there I'm missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: What's up Ray, i agree, this thing kept its circulation Very intact after being over Cuba for as long as it did....she's always been Strong...and is ramping up yet again!!! She's been a beast since inception...nothing stopping her now!! Hang on Western Florida!!! Miami gusted to 68mph. I'm growing very concerned of the panhandle... Chuck called this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Miami gusted to 68mph. I'm growing very concerned of the panhandle... Chuck called this. Before panhandle there will be Severe/Catastrophic damage from Ft Myers to the panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoreyandFrosty Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Thanks for the replies guys. I have always considered this storm to have a decent chance of landfalling on the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Miami gusted to 68mph. I'm growing very concerned of the panhandle... Chuck called this. I agree wholeheartedly!! This keeps shifting West incrementally!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Before panhandle there will be Severe/Catastrophic damage from Ft Myers to the panhandle Depends on how close to the coast it tracks...but at least they are a bit more prepared, there....I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said: I know the track keeps shifting west. But, doesnt this show 100 mph winds in the Atlanta Ga area? https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachme...56318271953436672/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png Those winds are at 850mb, or around 5k' in elevation. That said, some of those winds will mix to the surface in squalls though. 60-70 mph gust are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Wouldn't surge be more problematic there after the eye gets north of the area when the winds are out of the west to southwest? Any northerly track of the CoC just west of Tampa will bring major surge problems into the bay... might be worse if it had a NE trajectory but this is among the worst Euro runs for Tampa yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Irma is on track to be the most intense cane to strike Key West proper in over a century. Sobering. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/sfl-1919-hurricane-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM and RGEM likely are more on track for Atlanta showing 45-48kt peak winds. The GFS at 76kts and the Euro at 80-85 seem lost unless there is some odd mesoscale feature in there I'm missing There is little question they are in part so bullish due to cad/compression of the wind field due to the mountains. As someone who considers myself pretty well experienced on it...I'm very concerned there will be hurricane force gusts area wide over ga/atlanta with widespread power outages. Im a bit skeptical on the 90 to near 100 mph gusts of the euro but 75 to 80 isnt too crazy to me. This however is uncharted territory as no one has seen anything like this in their lifetime...with virtually nothing to compare it to even before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 ANy bets on how much longer it will take for this to blow out the Key west WSR-88d? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: And also Sarasota, Bradenton, Fort Myers, Naples, etc on the way to Tampa. This will leave a massive damage and death toll when all is set and done, I'm afraid. Dare I say it, but the death toll in the US may exceed the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Isn't the west shift a good thing? Think about it. Irma runs into dry air, wind shear and shallow waters. Doesn't sound like a recipe for RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: There is little question they are in part so bullish due to cad/compression of the wind field due to the mountains. As someone who considers myself pretty well experienced on it...I'm very concerned there will be hurricane force gusts area wide over ga/atlanta with widespread power outages. Im a bit skeptical on the 90 to near 100 mph gusts of the euro but 75 to 80 isnt too crazy to me. This however is uncharted territory as no one has seen anything like this in their lifetime...with virtually nothing to compare it to even before that. Have the latest Euro gust product for our area by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 This is getting worse and worse, is their a chance this could reach Cat 5 again briefly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthjnky Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Irma is creeping along, almost looks stalled out the last few frames, though obviously not. I put my cursor over the eye on the radar loop(link posted earlier) and the eye ended up in the exact same place an hour and half later. It just seems to be going in a very tiny circular wobble. I suppose it is just waiting to find the right current again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 18 minutes ago, Morris said: Dvorak up to 6.3 And now 6.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This is getting worse and worse, is their a change this could reach Cat 5 again briefly? She's making a run for it. I haven't commented since this morning because of how wrong I was about what Cuba was doing to it. However, she's gotten her act together to the point 150-160 is within the realm of possibility. Rita went from a a TS a little east of where Irma is currently located to over 155 mph 200 miles west in roughly 13 hours dropping over 20 mb. At about the 18 hour mark Rita went well over 170. Irma could easily obtain this it's all a matter of how fast she moves, and how she handles the sheer north as others have mentioned Matthews resiliency. Another issue that could hamper re obtaining cat 5 would be an ERC. There's no way to know how deep she goes, but she's gonna shoot for the moon. After looking back at the land interaction with Cuba I've been trying to find another example of a Hurricane with this tenacity and I'm having a hard time finding an example. If anyone can find a similar issue where a hurricane dug into the coast for 16 hours and survived nearly intact minus wind speeds please let me know. I want to learn more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 This is getting worse and worse, is their a chance this could reach Cat 5 again briefly?Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This is getting worse and worse, is their a chance this could reach Cat 5 again briefly? Yes. Yea.....now that the grieving period following Irma handing me my azz has passed, I think its possible. This thing is in the zone- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Amped said: ANy bets on how much longer it will take for this to blow out the Key west WSR-88d? It's not likely, but Reno did have a radome failure with a 140ish mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Yea.....now that the grieving period following Irma handing me my azz has passed, I think its possible. This thing is in the zone-Don't sweat it brother. I had this running up the Chesapeake. I mean.. That one Nam run did vindicate me but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: Don't sweat it brother. I had this running up the Chesapeake. I mean.. That one Nam run did vindicate me but... Haha Its all good....I learn more from the ones that I don't forecast well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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