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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


stormtracker

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Single eyewall per recon now. Also temp difference has increased as well.

Now that the ERC is looking to be nearly complete, and the core is firmly over open water this is looking like it's go time for strengthening.  Eye is firmly entrenched in the CDO, so shear shouldn't be negatively impacting it for the time being.  As long as shear remains light, and another ERC doesn't decide to take place this thing should continue to strengthen IMO.  How much quicker is the million dollar question.  

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7 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

DBZ increase evident in eyewalls, as is a clover leaf appearance. 

I'm seeing velocity readings on radar as high as 156mph in the eyewall. Beam height is around 7000 feet where those readings are.

edit: Since I posted this, two more doppler passes - now multiple 160+ mph readings, high is now 167mph!

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keys are getting smoked by that final intense band that precedes the eyewall.....maybe close to sustained hurricane force there now.

How far out do hurricane-force winds extend now? I recall seeing something like up to ~70 miles from the center but that was old information. 

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3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

So just saw graphic on TWC how a hurricane creates the wind shear with height that promotes tornadoes.....yet overall hurricanes succumb to wind shear.....it's gotta be a different beast.....thanks

The windshear that causes the tornadoes is on a much smaller scale  than the wind shear that disrupts hurricanes.  A small eddy in the band of a hurricane can produce a tornado.  We even saw some supercell like storms when Harvey came ashore because of this.  However, windshear in the upper levels on a scale of the hurricane itself distrupts how efficently the circulation can transport heat form the ocean to the upper levels of the atmosphere and thus reduces the strength of the cyclone.

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Maybe they want recon to get another pass or two for the upcoming intermediate advisory? Not sure. Either way the data is starting to illustrate that intensification is ongoing again as the core finishes the most recent bout of reorganization. 

I don't understand the NHC forecasters tonight. If you're unsure and have conflicting data, especially some that shows a good chance for strong and/or rapid intensification, why so strongly change your forecast? I mean, if the writing is on the wall, that's one thing. But with the situation, why change now? The difference between being wrong now or in the morning is essentially the same. You have egg on your face, but, people are still safe. This isn't a safety issue. But now, you say Cuba won and she won't intensify much, despite saying all along she would. You change your forecast and now the original one is potentially coming to fruition. There's seemingly no benefit. Likewise, they normally go for continuity. I don't understand their thinking tonight. 
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